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Digby’s AFL Round 18 Preview

Posted on | Posted by Digby Beacham

Friday, 21st July

Adelaide v Geelong, Adelaide Oval 5.50pm

Having surged to the top of the table after 17 rounds, Adelaide deserve more praise than criticism. But doubts remain. Are the Crows capable of winning a premiership at the MCG? Is coach Don Pyke capable of overcoming a curve ball when it is thrown at him during the course of a match? Can Adelaide play an uncompromising brand that is required at the pointy end of the season?

All will be revealed in time, but in terms of the present, we are going to learn a lot about the Crows’ legitimacy after this match. Geelong have owned Adelaide since Pyke took the reins, with a hallmark of the three wins in that time being their ability to stifle the normally prolific Crows, who have been restricted to only 28 goals.

Patrick Dangerfield (foot) was described as a 40 per cent chance of playing by Cats coach Chris Scott on Wednesday, while Rory Sloane (concussion) is also in doubt following his own setback in Darwin last Saturday night. If Dangerfield doesn’t play, the Crows should make a concerted effort to curb Joel Selwood, who is taggable unlike the reigning Brownlow medallist. If they do that, this is a match that appears within their reach.

VERDICT: Adelaide by 11 points

Saturday, 22nd July

Essendon v North Melbourne, Etihad Stadium 11.45am

Essendon have been guilty of coughing up games this season they simply shouldn’t have. Think Brisbane earlier this month. This is one they just cannot afford to let slip through their fingers. And barring a catastrophe, they won’t. The Bombers blitzed St Kilda last Friday night, with their speed, skill and pressure proving overwhelming.

North Melbourne were exposed by the same three traits against Port Adelaide the following day as the lack of input from big men Todd Goldstein and Majak Daw seriously impacted their hopes of causing an upset. The Kangaroos have played some good football this season, but they don’t have the leg speed or sufficient talent in the back half to slow down a team that is on the road to September action.

VERDICT: Essendon by 40 points

Melbourne v Port Adelaide, MCG 12.10pm

Melbourne co-captain Jack Viney admitted this week that he was likely to be less than 100 per cent fit and certain to encounter some discomfort if he could convince the club’s medical staff to clear him for the crucial clash with Port Adelaide. That he is willing to return earlier than expected tells you how important this match is from a Melbourne perspective.

The Demons were never in the hunt against Adelaide in Darwin, despite a third-term rally. They cannot afford another slow start in this contest, but that is easier said than done against Port Adelaide, who are renowned quick beginners and then hard to peg back given how competent they are defensively. Chad Wingard’s outstanding display last weekend only reinforced how dangerous Port can be forward of centre.

Melbourne will be hoping Jack Watts can have an influence on his return from a hamstring injury, bolstering a forward line that didn’t get much out of either Tom McDonald or Jesse Hogan opposed to the Crows. Their supply is likely to be more plentiful with the availability of Viney and Dom Tyson, who work particularly well at the feet of Max Gawn. The reigning All-Australian ruckman’s tussle with Paddy Ryder is worth the price of admission alone.

VERDICT: Melbourne by 9 points

Western Bulldogs v Gold Coast, Cazaly’s Stadium 2.35pm

The Western Bulldogs’ premiership defence still has a pulse … just. The win over Carlton last Sunday wasn’t pretty, but coach Luke Beveridge wasn’t in a position to gripe. He gleefully took the four points, knowing full well that another winning opportunity presented itself in round 18 against the struggling Gold Coast in Cairns, where the premiers have won the last three meetings between the two sides.

The Suns refused to show any willingness to defend against Collingwood in driving rain last weekend and now have to front up without co-captain Steven May (hamstring). His absence in the back half robs the Suns of one of their few on-field leaders. The loss of May is compounded by Bulldogs star Easton Wood’s return from suspension, although Jake Stringer (hamstring) won’t make the trek north. The Bulldogs should continue to stay in the top-eight conversation.

VERDICT: Western Bulldogs by 24 points

Sydney v St Kilda, SCG 5.25pm

If St Kilda were to play finals, in the eyes of most, they simply had to back up their annihilation of Richmond with a win against Essendon last Friday night. They failed and are now facing an uphill battle to return to finals action for the first time since Ross Lyon walked out on the club at the end of 2011. Indeed, a match against a rampaging Sydney at the SCG is the last thing you want when in desperate need of four points.

Adding to the enormity of the task is the hold the Swans have over the Saints. Sydney have pulverised St Kilda in recent times, winning their past seven meetings. The combined margin in the past three matches is nearly 200 points. Simply, the Saints haven’t been able to harness the Swans’ firepower, nor cope with their pressure around the ball.

The Swans have won nine of their past 10 games to emerge as genuine premiership threats. Their midfield of Josh Kennedy, Luke Parker, Dan Hannebery, Isaac Heeney and Jake Lloyd has been brilliant, they have defended magnificently and Lance Franklin and Tom Papley provide contrasting threats in attack. St Kilda missed Tim Membrey (suspension) last week and will again be without him here, leaving them short-changed up forward.

VERDICT: Sydney by 39 points

Fremantle v Hawthorn, Domain Stadium 5.40pm

If bad kicking is bad football, then Fremantle were downright atrocious last weekend. There is no denying they did a lot of things right against West Coast, but key components of Australian Rules are hitting targets and finishing in front of goal. Not for the first time, the Dockers wouldn’t have hit water had they fallen out of a boat.

Their finals hopes are now gone, as are Hawthorn’s by virtue of their last-gasp loss to Geelong at the MCG. The Hawks did a lot of things right opposed to the Cats, but simply had no answer to Patrick Dangerfield’s forward-line cameo. Such a scenario isn’t likely to be an issue here given the Dockers kicked five goals — the same total Dangerfield managed on his own — in the western derby.

But where Fremantle do look to have an edge is through their midfield, especially if Nat Fyfe, Michael Walters, Lachie Neale and Bradley Hill can continue their good form, Stephen Hill overcomes his shoulder issue and David Mundy rediscovers some of his best touch.

VERDICT: Fremantle by 10 points

Sunday, 23rd July

Richmond v GWS, MCG 11.10am

The knives were out for Leon Cameron and his players in the wake of their loss to Sydney last weekend. Perhaps it is time for some perspective. Giants spearhead Jeremy Cameron was a late withdrawal with hamstring tightness and veteran defensive forward Matt de Boer (concussion) left the ground during the first term and didn’t return. And they still only lost by 13 points.

Are GWS at the level they would like? Clearly not. Are they being seriously restricted by an injury list the likes of which we haven’t seen previously? Absolutely. Unfortunately for Cameron however, the AFL is a results-based industry and he has to make do with what he has got and try to lift the Giants into the top four at the end of the home-and-away campaign.

Given their recent results, that is no sure thing ahead of this match. And with what occurred between the two sides up at Spotless Stadium earlier this season, don’t expect Richmond to roll out the red carpet. The Tigers did everything but win on that occasion and will believe they can turn the tables this time around, especially at their home ground. Richmond defend well and have star power in Alex Rance, Trent Cotchin, Dustin Martin and Jack Riewoldt. But GWS, even taking into account the absence of so much class, are dripping with elite talent and we all know that talent carries you a long way.

VERDICT: GWS by 11 points

Collingwood v West Coast, Etihad Stadium 1.20pm

West Coast threw their hat back into the top-eight ring with a grinding effort opposed to Fremantle. But if they are to retain their spot in the upper echelon of teams, they are going to have to find a length or two. Of that there is little doubt. And they have been handed an opportunity to bank a critical away win here, with Magpies captain Scott Pendlebury (broken finger) ruled out.

The Eagles will be boosted by the return of Elliot Yeo, who missed the western derby with knee soreness. His flexibility shapes as vital for the Eagles, who defended stoutly against the Dockers, but were also assisted by their opponents’ botched opportunities in front of goal. It is not sustainable for a defence to be swamped with as many entries as what confronted West Coast last Sunday.

Collingwood left the Gold Coast with four points, but were anything but convincing in doing so. The class of Daniel Wells however, was a bright spot. His vision and ball use is the cream on top of a Magpies midfield that often finds plenty of the ball, but is not always efficient when using it. West Coast stretch the friendships of tipsters when they travel to Melbourne, but they have had some success at Etihad Stadium.

VERDICT: Collingwood by 13 points

Brisbane v Carlton, Gabba 2.40pm

Around this time last year, Carlton hit the wall. On what we saw last weekend, it might be a case of deja vu. The Blues were willing against the Western Bulldogs, as they were the week before against Melbourne, but came up short. The young players are starting to show signs of fatigue and the absence of Patrick Cripps (broken leg) cannot be understated.

The only issue in tipping against Carlton here is they are playing Brisbane. Like the Blues, they are having a crack, but they don’t win out of turn. No Cripps opens the door for the likes of Dayne Beams, Tom Rockliff and Dayne Zorko to be a handful in and around the stoppages, while young key forwards Eric Hipwood and Josh Schache loom as factors.

VERDICT: Brisbane by 17 points

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