Races

Michael Heaton’s Saturday Belmont Preview

Posted on | Posted by Michael Heaton

RACE 1

BASSETT HOUND looks a serious sprinter. His maiden win first up rated through the roof then he looked in all sorts of trouble second up in Saturday grade but was able to reel off enormous late figures to win impressively. He now rises 200m and 2kg but it doesn’t look a concern. LONG SERVICE LEAF is similarly flying but all 4 of his career wins have been over 1000m and he also bumps into a nice one here. CASTLE ROAD will give them something to catch if he’s allowed to roll forward and find the rail. MONTE TREMEZZO can sprint well fresh.

Numbers: 4-2-1-5

Suggested Bet – BASSETT HOUND WIN

RACE 2

ENCROACHING has been brave at his first 2 race starts when posted 3-deep the trip from awkward gates and fighting on for second on both occasions. He now draws a gate, gets a 2kg swing on Swift Ruler from last start and looks the map horse this time around. He can turn the tables. SWIFT RULER let rip with a highly impressive turn of foot second up and maps to get a similar run on another soft track which will allow him to peel to the middle of the track again. SHE’S A SPLINTER was beaten narrowly first up, won well second up and blocked the entire third up. Going well but this looks a really awkward map from her outside draw. UNTAMED STARE has been solid at her 2 starts back and can roll forward from her wide draw to ride the speed again.

Numbers: 2-1-7-8

Suggested Bet – ENCROACHING WIN

RACE 3

Tough race. MOHEGAN RULER has hit the line strongly at both starts back and looks ready to break through. He’s bred to swim so he should appreciate the conditions and there should be a moving line for him to blend into and then let rip down the centre of the track. MT SHIRATAKU is likely the best horse in the race but he has some things against him here jumping from the extreme outside draw in a capacity field with 60.5kg. FEARLESS TALK won back-to-back midweek events before getting caught wide at her next start and then was only beaten a length when third at this track/grade/distance when crossing to the lead from barrier 12 of 12 last time out. She now draws barrier 1 which will allow her to either lead or box-seat. MIA GUSTO resumes first up, no trial and can fly fresh in and around this grade. Keep safe.

Numbers: 8-2-11-9

Suggested Bet – MOHEGAN RULER EACH-WAY

RACE 4

Peters Investments and Michael Grantham trifecta. FIRST ENCOUNTER didn’t get a run to suit when caught in an awkward position in the WA Day Cup at Northam last start but ticks some boxes here. He gets the services of in-form senior hoop Chris Parnham, steps up to a staying trip at Belmont where he does his best work and he strikes a rain-affected track. Just needs some luck from the gate. STARTLING STAR was a big win in review last week when being the only horse to make as much ground as she did and strikes another highly winnable assignment. ANTIQUE STAR charged in front last start and was a game effort to stick on for a narrow second. The norton bit goes on her now to help her settle better. I LOVE YOUR SMILE has been sectionally huge at both starts back this preparation.

Numbers: 2-10-1-4

Suggested Bet – FIRST ENCOUNTER WIN

RACE 5

WESTERN EMPIRE is arguably WA’s best galloper and he’s been at his brilliant best this preparation. He’s been beaten in his 2 previous Strickland Stakes attempts but drew outside gates in slowly-run events both times and is set to enjoy a sweet from a perfect draw in barrier 3 this time around. HOBA WEST nearly pinched the Hyperion Stakes at his second run back and the last time he was over a staying distance he ran subsequent Perth Cup winner (and Group 1 Australian Cup placegetter) Apulia to less than a length. If he can work his way to the top he’ll make a race of it. GINGER BAKER will be hoping for heavy track conditions but he’s been sectionally very strong at his past 2 starts and now reunites with Brad Parnham who incredibly has been aboard him in his past 8 wins. DIAMOND SCENE had no luck last but can improve sharply up with a softer run up in trip.

Numbers: 1-10-5-3

Suggested Bet – WESTERN EMPIRE WIN

Same Race Multi – Hoba West (Top 2) + Ginger Baker (Top 4)

HOBA WEST went within a nose of knocking off Western Empire last start and is better suited stepping up to 2000m here. The last time he was over a staying trip he ran subsequent Perth Cup winner (and Group 1 Australian Cup placegetter) Apulia to less than a length. GINGER BAKER will be hoping for as much rain as possible but has been sectionally huge at his last couple starts and now reunites with Brad Parnham who has been aboard him in each of his past 8 wins.

RACE 6

TERRITORY MAN is a lightly-raced 4YO resuming and looks like he’ll end up better than Graduation grade. He’s been tuned up with 2 recent trials and whilst he was ridden out over the late stages in his second, the 1400m here is much more in his wheelhouse and the wider draw suits his racing style. GLANCED was a big run first up, no trial at odds when producing a fast-finishing second to Dark Ambition who ran a nice race last Saturday to frank the form. She should only improve as the distances increase. TALKAWAY is a handy enough mare and a last-start winner in the midweeks but she typically goes best when settled off the fence which makes her inside draw here tricky. OLD MATE HENRY was below his best last campaign but was eye-catching in his recent trial.

Numbers: 5-7-8-4

Suggested Bet – TERRITORY MAN WIN

RACE 7

FIFTH ESSENCE has had a wonderfully consistent preparation and looks the map horse here. He’s drawn to ride the speed again in a race where most of his main dangers will likely get back, he stays at the same track/grade/distance as his narrow runner-up finish last start and he is 2 from 2 on soft tracks (including a soft-7). ASTRO WORLD has been huge at each of her 3 starts for Team Williams and will be hard to hold out if she can get the right flow into the race from a tough gate. HEY PINO is in career-best form and hit the line super again last week. He now backs up off 7 days, steps up to a mile and is screaming out to win a race. SIMPLY THINKIN’ has similarly drawn horribly but her recent figures have been terrific flying under the radar.

Numbers: 4-11-7-3

Suggested Bet – FIFTH ESSENCE EACH-WAY

RACE 8

Great race to end the day. COOL MEMORY trialled like a bomb then crossed from barrier 15 of 15 first up and stuck on for third under 61.5kg of Paul Harvey. He carries a big impost again but the wetter the better for him, he should be naturally improved, steps up to a mile from a better draw and he should be able to shake off likely breeze horse Battle Commander on straightening. OPPORTUNISTIC had an indifferent last campaign but looked back on track with the way he hit the line last start and he now gets Pike on at his third run back. SNIPPY WHICH steps to unchartered territory at 1650m but he is going super and maps to get a lovely stalking run again. RUSSIAN TO THE BAR was back to his best last start.

Numbers: 1-4-6-2

Suggested Bet – COOL MEMORY EACH-WAY

Quaddie (Race 5 – 8)

1,10

2,4,5,7,8

3,4,5,7,9,11

1,4,6,8,9

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