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Robbie Von’s F1 Preview – Barcelona Grand Prix

Posted on | Posted by Robbie Von

FIVE WINS. FIVE RACES. SOMEBODY STOP THIS KID.

Monaco is Monaco. It’s a strange one. Nothing much seems to happen, but at the same time its action packed. If you want wheel to wheel racing and overtaking, this isn’t the race for you! What you do get is drama, carnage, and someone parking it in a barrier. This year delivered all three.

Kimi Antonelli qualified on pole and the result was never really in doubt. Since 2004, 72% of pole sitters have won in Monaco. Lead into Sainte Devote, control the pace, do not hit anything. Kimi did exactly that. Five wins from six races. Youngest ever Monaco Grand Prix winner. Championship lead out to 66 points.

MONACO IN BRIEF

Verstappen stalled at lights out and was done on lap one. Leclerc crashed out late from a potential podium when the track surface broke up at the final corner, same spot that claimed Stroll moments earlier. Home race heartbreak for Leclerc again. Russell had a nightmare with back-to-back penalties and finished 13th. Hamilton came home second. Hadjar took a surprise podium after Gasly copped two pit lane speeding penalties. Piastri promoted to fourth. After everything that has gone wrong for Oscar this season, he will take it.

THE SIDE SHOW

Kim Kardashian was in Monaco all weekend in the Ferrari garage. Martin Brundle made his move on the grid walk, introduced himself, got completely blanked by security. “Don’t push me mate, I’m nearly famous,” Brundle said to someone who shoved him earlier. Brilliant TV!

WHERE THE CHAMPIONSHIP STANDS

Antonelli: 156 points. Hamilton: 90. Russell: 88. Leclerc: 75. Sixty-six-point gap at the top with sixteen races to go. It’s looking like Antonelli’s championship to lose.

BARCELONA PREVIEW

One week turnaround to the Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya. Race day Sunday June 14. Barcelona is a proper racing circuit. High speed corners, long straights, technical middle sector. No walls to hide behind. The fastest car wins. Teams also love bringing upgrades here, which means Ferrari and McLaren could shake things up if their development packages land well.

The big storyline is Russell. Two points behind Hamilton now after Monaco. A man who came into this season as Antonelli’s senior team-mate is fighting to stay in the top three. He needs a big weekend. Whether he can deliver it is another question.

THE TEAMS

Mercedes

Antonelli at $1.91 to win and $1.20 Top 3. The kid just wins. Mercedes has found their number one driver and the team is building around Kimi now. Russell needs to rediscover himself, but I am not putting my money where his confidence should be. Antonelli Top 3 at $1.20 is your banker leg in any multi. The ‘Team to Feature Winning Driver’ at $1.40 is a lay-up. Six races, six Mercedes wins. Back it and move on.

Red Bull

My headline value call this week. Verstappen at $8.00 to win is too good to ignore. Barcelona has historically been one of Red Bull’s strongest circuits and Verstappen has the raw pace to compete when the car behaves. The reliability has been the killer this season, not the speed. If that Red Bull holds together for 66 laps, he will be right there. Verstappen Top 3 at $1.95 is the best value on the board this weekend.

McLaren

Norris $10.00 to win, Piastri $13.00 to win and $2.75 Top 3. McLaren bringing a significant upgrade package. If it works, both are in the mix. Piastri Top 3 at $2.75 is the bounce back play. He is due and Barcelona is the circuit where it happens.

Ferrari

Leclerc $19.00 to win, Hamilton $17.00 to win and $3.00 Top 3. Hard to get excited about Ferrari’s win chances at Barcelona but a podium is possible if the upgrade delivers.

The Fun One

Same as last week! First Driver to Retire and Lance Stroll is right there at $11.00 alongside Bottas. After parking it at Monaco and triggering the chaos that ended Leclerc’s race, the Aston Martin is not exactly inspiring confidence. Stroll First to Retire at $11.00. You know what to do.

PLAYS FOR THIS WEEKEND

Kimi Antonelli to Win – $1.91

Kimi Antonelli Top 3 – $1.20 (banker leg in a multi)

Max Verstappen to Win – $8.00 (value call)

Max Verstappen Top 3 – $1.95 (best value on the board)

Mercedes ‘Team to Feature Winning Driver’ – $1.40

Lance Stroll First to Retire – $11.00

Happy punting!

Odds correct at time of publication. 

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