Races

Chris Nelson’s Saturday Eagle Farm Preview

Posted on | Posted by Chris Nelson

RACE 1

Saturday at Eagle Farm promises to be one of the highlights of the Queensland racing calendar headlined by the prestigious Group 1 Stradbroke Handicap alongside the highly anticipated J.J. Atkins and a supporting card stacked with quality. The track however is a different story, sitting at a heavy (8) on Thursday morning I’d say the best we can hope for is a soft (6) as there are a few showers still about. French import (2) YELLOW JERSEY the interesting runner in this opening race. Lightly raced he holds an enviable record on soft ground and left a strong impression when cruising to victory in a recent Sunshine Coast trial on a Heavy (10) suggesting he’s primed and ready to handle whatever the weather throws at him on Saturday. (3) TAVI TIME gave away too much start his latest & was unlucky the run prior, expect sharp improvement.

Numbers: 2 – 3 – 4 – 1

Suggested Bet: Box up top 3 selections in exotics.

RACE 2

Multiple runners keen to lead in this Listed race for the youngsters, hoping they all turn up as the pace should be genuine and possibly set up for a closer. The southern contingent taking on the locals looks particularly strong. Keep an eye on (10) SAY YOU WILL, who was never in a position to threaten after drawing wide at the Gold Coast settling rearwards, liked his late burst clocking strong sectionals on a Soft (6) track. His previous run on firmer ground told a similar story, stepping to 1200m suits nicely. (8) PEARL OF DUBAI thrives with give in the ground, out of a leading stable has trialled well, she’s firmly in the mix. (11) LADY CATALINA gives the impression 1200m might just stretch her stamina at this stage, she’s worth slotting into exotics though for those looking to go deeper.

Numbers: 10 – 8 – 1 – 11

Suggested Bet: SAY YOU WILL EACH-WAY.

RACE 3

The 3200m Brisbane Cup looks to have only a couple of pace setters (1 & 8). The Waterhouse/Bott duo (1) ALALCANCE and (8) BELLA MONTAGNA clashed here a fortnight ago in the Premier’s Cup with (1) ALALCANCE holding on however (8) BELLA MONTAGNA was closing strongly right to the line and a 3kg weight swing in her favour this time around suggest she can turn the tables. The wet track holds no fears and while the 3200m trip is stepping into new territory it’s a punt I’m happy to take. I’d be very surprised to see the winner not come from that pair.

Numbers: 7 – 1 – 3 – 5

Suggested Bet: BELLA MONTAGNA TO WIN.

RACE 4

Plenty of runners with likely early on-pace speed intentions (1, 2, 6, 7 and 8), though not all are genuine leaders. Keen on the chances of (10) WITHIN THE LAW who caught the eye in the Fred Best which provides much of the form reference for this race. He can be a horse who hits the line hard however sometimes finds the winning post arriving a stride too early, today’s favourable draw should see him secure a comfortable position in transit and the step up in trip ought to have him settling closer at recent starts. (1) SIXTIES and (2) SKYHOOK are the standout class runners in the field and both also bring strong Fred Best form references, their wide draws may not prove an issue as the pattern will likely be off fence. (11) TUPAKARA has been in consistent form of late and the wet ground will be no obstacle for him.

Numbers: 10 – 1 – 2 – 11

Suggested Bet: WITHIN THE LAW TO WIN.

RACE 5

Nos 5, 11 & 14 look to be the likely tempo setters in what shapes as a genuinely tricky race to unravel. A number of these runners haven’t been at their absolute peak of late however a turnaround in form can come quickly and without much warning. (4) PEREILLE is a model of consistency yet converting that into an outright win has proven the difficult part of the equation. Both runs this preparation have been encouraging and by this stage of the day a wide draw may not be the disadvantage it appears on paper. He handles the wet, gets the services of J. Mac and could be the one sweeping down the outside at the right time. (18) ARABIAN ROSE was impressive first up & with another light weight she’s a genuine player, although very wet ground could work against her. Similar thoughts apply to (13) GOLDEN STRAND who is showing plenty of promise and is one to follow.

Numbers: 4 – 18 – 13 – 5

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 6

The Dane Ripper lives up to its name with a highly competitive field assembling. Nos.6, 12, 18 and 19 loom as the likely pace in the race. Two runners who caught the eye last start are (8) SHE’S GOT PIZZAZZ and (14) SOFT LOVE, both of whom finished off their races very strongly to beat home all bar the winner. Best to play on an each-way basis given both share a similar get back, run on racing pattern which requires luck to go their way. (12) GERRINGONG is an interesting first up runner now in the Team Mince yard having previously been with Waterhouse/Bott, she showed she’s ready to go with a comfortable trial win recently, expected her to be right up on speed from the get-go, market?

Numbers: 8 – 14 – 12 – 4

Suggested Bet: SHE’S GOT PIZZAZZ/SOFT LOVE EACH-WAY.

RACE 7

The Group 1 J.J. Atkins never disappoints and this year’s is no different with a quality field of 13 assembling. Notably every single runner will be tackling 1600m for the first time in their careers, which adds an intriguing element to the race. Cormier shapes as the likely pacesetter on the map however with the step up in trip expect several runners to settle closer to the speed than they typically would. (4) TRON BOLT produced an eye-catching performance two starts back before backing it up with a win last start on heavy going despite the drop back in distance. The mile looks tailor made and the combination of Waller and J. Mac makes him a very appealing proposition. (12) VOYNICHESE was terrific when winning here last week producing a devastating turn of foot that was hard to ignore, she can measure up to this company. 1, 2, 5 and 6 also in the mix.

Numbers: 4 – 12 – 6 – 1

Suggested Bet: TRON BOLT TO WIN/VOYNICHESE EACH-WAY.

RACE 8

Queensland biggest race, the Group 1 Stradbroke Handicap. Speed doesn’t look anything of note on paper however it’s a Stradbroke, I’d be surprised to see it run softly, they rarely are. Transatlantic & Spicy Martini the clear front runners, while a sizeable handy bracket (3, 5, 7, 9, 17, 18, 19 and 23) can settle just off speed. (1) FANGIRL was a cracking run in the Kingsford Smith here a fortnight ago finishing off powerfully in a race that was far from ideal for her running style. The burning questions are the going & whether 1400m is quite long enough to see her at her absolute best, on that recent evidence though she’s right in the thick of it (on a track no worse than soft). (7) HEADLEY GRANGE is drawn to advantage and should find a comfortable position within that handy group without any fuss, his consistency makes him a reliable each way chance & the ground is no concern. Beyond those two the race opens up considerably and for those looking to go wide in exotics nos. 2, 3, 11, 13, 14, 15 and 16 all deserve consideration, as does (19) SIXTIES who could sneak in as first emergency.

Numbers: 1 – 7 – 14 – 19

Suggested Bet: FANGIRL EACH-WAY.

RACE 9

A fitting way to close out a spectacular day of racing with the Group 2 Q22, the presence of Pride Of Jenni guarantees this one will be anything but dull. She’ll set the pace as expected with Royal Supremacy & She’s A Hustler the most likely candidates to have the unenviable task of carting the rest of the field up to her, or will they? I’m with (2) VAUBAN who rounded off his Doomben Cup run with a strong closing sectional, the combination of an extra 200m, a more expansive Eagle Farm track and a rain affected surface all look to stack up ideally. (1) HALF YOURS has looked a little below his best his past couple of starts, he’s just raced flat to my eye, can a step up in trip this afternoon reignite him? The wet ground at least holds no fears and if he’s back to somewhere near his best he’s certainly right in the hunt.

Numbers: 2 – 1 – 10 – 8

Suggested Bet: VAUBAN EACH-WAY.

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