Digby Beacham’s AFL Preview: Round 17

THURSDAY

Port Adelaide v Melbourne, Adelaide Oval, 5.40pm

Melbourne continue to do a lot of things right, despite last weekend slumping to the third loss of their season. Coach Simon Goodwin knew full well he needed to address his lack of potency in attack. The solution? Recall Ben Brown.

The former North Melbourne spearhead has been forced to cut his teeth for the most part at VFL level since arriving at the Demons, but has the capacity to give his new team added bite with an extended run at it.

Port recaptured some of their very best form at stages against Hawthorn last weekend. Melbourne are a different challenge  altogether and we do know that the hosts have been a little shaky against top-eight sides this year. The Dees get a look here.

VERDICT: Melbourne by 10 points

FRIDAY

Essendon v Adelaide, Marvel Stadium, 5.50pm

For the first quarter against Geelong last Friday night, Essendon looked every bit like a finals contender. After that though, their shortcomings were exposed by the genuine article.

They shouldn’t encounter any such problems here against a plucky Adelaide outfit that is competitive, but being exposed when push comes to shove. The same does apply to Essendon, but their formlines are stronger.

The decision by Darcy Parish to re-sign midweek was significant for the Bombers, who continue to receive excellent service at the stoppages and on the scoreboard from the enigmatic Jake Stringer.

VERDICT: Essendon by 21 points

SATURDAY

Hawthorn v Fremantle, UTAS Stadium, 11.45am

There are occasions when sides lift for a major milestone match. Conversely, there are other times when it appears the moment is too big, too much of a burden.

The latter could well be attributed to Hawthorn in Shaun Burgoyne’s 400th AFL appearance last Saturday night against Port Adelaide. The Hawks never really contended, even though they boasted good form going in.

Fremantle will look to honour Nat Fyfe’s 200th appearance with a win in a game of undeniable importance after the disappointing loss to Carlton. The Dockers’ Achilles heel — poor goal kicking — was again an issue in the loss. Unless it is  corrected, no game is a lock.

VERDICT: Hawthorn by 11 points 

Carlton v Geelong, MCG, 2.35pm

No Jeremy Cameron. No worries. That is how Geelong will approach this match as they zero in on a top-four spot and the critical double chance in September.

The Cats took a while to find their groove against Essendon, but once they did, there was no stopping them. It was a powerhouse display after quarter-time, one the Blues haven’t been able to muster at any stage in 2021.

Carlton’s bid for a third straight win that keeps their finals flame flickering could well depend on whether Patrick Cripps (foot) takes his place. Without his big body in the midfield, Geelong’s ball-winning ability shapes as a huge stumbling block.

VERDICT: Geelong by 29 points

Brisbane v St Kilda, Metricon Stadium, 5.25pm

Brisbane are ticking every box on the path to September. And that spells bad news for St Kilda, who are on the improve after leaving themselves with a mountain to climb following some horrid efforts in the first half of 2021.

The Lions are considered by all and sundry a legitimate premiership threat. Even though Brownlow medallist Lachie Neale has been out of the side for several weeks this season, the next wave have stepped up, notably Hugh McCluggage and Zac Bailey.

The attacking firepower Chris Fagan has at his disposal is also daunting. As for the Saints, they find plenty of ball through the midfield, but aren’t kicking big bags. And their new-found defensive system will be asked plenty of questions.

VERDICT: Brisbane by 20 points

SUNDAY

GWS v Gold Coast, Mars Stadium, Ballarat, 10.40am

Credit where credit is due. Few gave Gold Coast any chance of taking down Richmond at Marvel Stadium last week. Equally, congratulations to GWS, who overcame a disappointing loss to Hawthorn to upstage Melbourne.

The Giants might well regret not getting a victory against North Melbourne to go with the loss to the Hawks, but their body of work is impressive. Josh Kelly is back to the peak of his powers and has a support cast that is well known and capable.

As for the Suns, so much rests on the shoulders of Touk Miller and David Swallow, who were gallant opposed to the Tigers. These two clubs have been compared to one another since their inception. That will continue, even though they are a long way removed from each other on so many fronts.

VERDICT: GWS by 30 points

Western Bulldogs v Sydney, Marvel Stadium, 1.20pm

The market says the Western Bulldogs will be winning this match … and comfortably. Such a thought makes perfect sense.

The Bulldogs are airborne at present and deserve their spot atop the ladder. But the loss of Aaron Naughton (concussion) leaves them a little short-changed in attack against a Swans side whose DNA is all about defence, even though Don Pyke’s influence has added considerably to their ball movement.

At the other end of the ground, the Swans boast plentiful attacking options, notably Lance Franklin, who continues to prove a handful as he fast approaches 1000 AFL goals. It could be closer than you think.

VERDICT: Western Bulldogs by 8 points

Richmond v Collingwood, MCG, 2.10pm

How the mighty have fallen. Who could have envisioned that these two big clubs, who locked horns in the 2018 preliminary final and are no strangers to the grand final stage, would be strutting their stuff in the graveyard shift?

Certainly Jack Riewoldt made it known on Tuesday that all of the Tigers’ opponents in the run to the finals should be alarmed. They were ready to bounce back after losses to St Kilda and Gold Coast, he said.

The Magpies need no reminding of the threat Richmond pose. Whether they have the personnel or confidence to inflict a fourth straight loss on the premiers is another question.

VERDICT: Richmond by 28 points

MONDAY

West Coast v North Melbourne, Optus Stadium, 5.40pm

West Coast aren’t renowned for winning ugly. They might not have a choice in this clash against North Melbourne.

The Eagles just need to find a way to get four points banked in a contest that is likely to be seriously impacted by poor weather. How the hosts’ midfield will respond to another shellacking, this time from Sydney, will give everyone an insight in their mindset.

North have been to WA once already this year. It didn’t end well on that occasion, with Fremantle handing out a free football lesson. It would be a shock if they weren’t afforded another one.

VERDICT: West Coast by 31 points

Market Market