Races

Scott Embry’s Wednesday Belmont Preview

Posted on | Posted by Scott Embry

RACE 1  

ANDALADY is an Anders filly from a family who can all run. She’s won both her 400m jump and her 930m trial, neither of them in blistering time but does look naturally jump and run and professional and from the draw she’ll land into a lovely spot on debut in a winnable race. BRAVE MOVE made his debut on a Saturday behind Barron Bill in a race they dominated from the top. First 600m run 7L slower than average before skipping home 3.5L faster than average. Was right place, right time, but should be here as well dropping back into midweek company. Encouraging start to his career. CHIXFROMTHESTIX looked far bigger and stronger this time around and Josh Brown is doing a good job with his babies. BEYOND A DOUBT won his trial on the same day as Andalady and went considerably quicker.

Numbers: 4 – 1 – 6 – 2  

Suggested Bet – ANDALADY WIN  

RACE 2  

SKYHIGH JOURNEY needs to be eachway given the barrier that he’s drawn, but hopefully in this capacity line-up of 16 maidens there’s a decent three and even four deep train building into the race from the 600 and that can bring him into the mix, because his trial was strong and his debut run was huge in a form race expected to hold up. Many (many) chances in this and he’s undeniably one of them. JAZZ ME BABY was in the same race and she had plenty of excuses. Tongue tie goes on and she’ll land in a similar spot in the moving line. CANNOTSTOP was a good thing beat last start from leader’s back, but it was an ugly sit and sprint race where the leader walked them until half way up the straight. BEND IT LIKE BECKS was three deep cover in that same race and considering how it was run – that was probably the best position in running.

Numbers: 7 – 14 – 3 – 4     

Suggested Bet – SKYHIGH JOURNEY EACHWAY

RACE 3

PRINCE OF DALA looks a nice horse in the making, and one who might just be capable of chiming into the upcoming 3-year-old Winter Series. Sat three deep the trip on debut and marched past limited opposition before stepping into a C1, carrying 2.5kg more and crossing them from barrier 15 of 15 and running them into the ground. Stopped the clock 2.5L faster than average and showed both his versatility and his upside. Love the way he ran right through the line. MY DANNY BOY won at the same meeting in a maiden and from the inside gets first look at the fence. In front for a long way. ESTA MIRANDO will likely sit back and have last crack at them. BRAVE DRAGON draws to get a much softer time of it and is wet track proven.

Numbers: 1 – 7 – 8 – 3  

Suggested Bet – PRINCE OF DALA WIN

RACE 4  

MYSTERIOUS FORTUNE looked lost in behind runners last week. On the 7-day spin drops 3.5kg, finds a race where he can bounce out to lead and will go around eachway. His previous effort when leading in a C3 and beaten under a length Linchpin and Strapping Prophet is good enough to give this a shake. I’M ODETTE was luckless on debut and then roved far too classy for maiden opponents at her second outing before being spelled. Barrier 1 is the potential issue for her, she’s three back the fence, at a distance short of her best and may be in a tricky spot at stages in running. LIPSTICK JUNGLE just can’t find the right race to break through and win a second. Going consistently well without winning for 18 months now. BANNERED is racing below his best – but is Heavy9 placed and is far better suited back in C1 company.

Numbers: 2 – 6 – 4 – 3  

Suggested Bet – MYSTERIOUS FORTUNE EACHWAY

RACE 5  

BASSETT HOUND is the one horse on the entire program that the State of WA will be waiting to see with bated breath. He just oozes class and put on an absolute galloping exhibition at Ascot off a 73 day fresh at 1100m when parking wide and monstering them. It took him all of three strides to cover three quarters of the field and was soft late, and with My Danny Boy winning well when plunged at his next outing it’s not like he beat no-hopers either. He’ll be ~$1.40 and expect he’ll safely get the job done. SOLAR CHANT led them running at Ascot to break her maiden and the second and third horses from that race are both subsequent winners. At York everything went wrong: missed the kick, nearly pulled Joey Azzopardi out of the saddle and then ran out of petrol tickets late at 1100m under 59.5kg. Jump + Run. IM A SOULMAN and GREAT PROMISE are drawn underneath her and can use her to get across.

Numbers: 1 – 7 – 2 – 6

Suggested Bet – BASSETT HOUND WIN  

RACE 6  

ARIZONA SKY had blinkers attached last start and put an extending 3L margin on rivals. Goes straight from a maiden into a C3 – but that’s a programming decision that’s rapidly growing on me, and is proving to produce far more back to back winners than the traditional maiden to C1. Will get back/wide so monitor conditions of the day, but if it’s an even racing pad expect he’ll be too progressive for his older rivals. BLUE LUPIN has really turned a corner. Won back to back races in Geraldton and then with clear galloping room likely wins last start to make it a hattrick. CAPABLE ANGEL should be peaking now and gets the wet track conditions to suit. MYZOOM sneaks back into a C3 after a trio of 60+ Graduation runs without that much luck.       

Numbers: 4 – 2 – 7 – 11     

Suggested Bet – ARIZONA SKY WIN

RACE 7

DARK AMBITION resumed off a 60 day freshen from the Lex Piper and JC Roberts when running a solid second behind Prince of Dala. If he comes out and wins a third straight race in the 3 year old 0MWLY earlier in the day then the form will only look even stronger and he’s mapped to get every mortal chance with 4.5kg less on his back start to start. Nice set up for him. ANCIENT GUIDANCE is an out and out wet tracker and a Belmont horse. Senior rider on, better drawn and fitter. Don’t forget he can also be ridden for speed when the race shape suits. SHOWLAS had concussion plates added last week and uncharacteristically folded up late. Concerned she’s not quite 100%? LIEUTENANT DUNBAR was a brilliant trial most recently. He was as good and as sharp as Vatican Storm and Lanfranco. Barrier hurts but might be in for a good prep?

Numbers: 7 – 3 – 4 – 11     

Suggested Bet – DARK AMBITION WIN

Quaddie (Race 4 – 7)

1,2,3,4,6

1

4

3,4,7,8,10,11

Market Market

      




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