Races

Chris Nelson’s Saturday Randwick Preview

Posted on | Posted by Chris Nelson

RACE 1

We race at Randwick in Sydney on Saturday under likely gloomy skies. Showers are predicted in the lead-up & on race day itself, suggest a soft/heavy track is the likely outcome. The day gets underway with a 1200m 2yo where I’m with the second starter (1) KEEN TO EXCEED who if not for being held up on debut would have finished closer to the winner, the additional 100m here plus race experience can see him go one better. (7) UNCERTAIN GLORY let down nicely to win at her only appearance earlier this month & note it was on a soft (5) deck. Include (2) FRIENDLY FIRE who missed the kick at Wagga on debut before running home well into third whilst first starter (5) GLENORCHY is a market watch.     

Numbers: 1 – 7 – 2 – 5

Suggested Bet: KEEN TO EXCEED TO WIN

RACE 2

1400m Midway where (1) FLYING EMBERS will be suited by the give in the ground. Yet to win (placed 1 of 4) on dry ground all wins have come on soft & heavy tracks suggesting she’s in her element today. Only blemish of late came about in the rich Provincial Championship during the autumn carnival. (2) AUDREY’S LANE is a model of consistency, drawn well she’ll once again figure in the finish. (12) PHYXIUS is a heavy track winner & was strong to the line fresh whilst the resuming (16) CALLISTEMON can run a race fresh.   

Numbers: 1 – 2 – 12 – 16

Suggested Bet: FLYING EMBERS TO WIN (small bet).

RACE 3

Matt Dunn has an outstanding record in these Highway races & he produces (9) WAYBURN third up today. Well backed yet on face value disappointing first up at the Gold Coast he improved quickly winning second up & I’d suggest there’s plenty more improvement to come with that being only his fourth start in a race. (1) EXIT FEE beat all bar the winner first up at this level a fortnight back, has won second up & although yet to win here has placed on 3 occasions. (4) CAMPARI TWIST not without a chance at odds, unlucky two back before needing the run latest, worth including in exotics.

Numbers: 9 – 1 – 4 – 7

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 4

(5) THEBUDGIESMUGLA should be ready to win now stepping up to 2400m third up. Ridden on pace at Gosford last start he kept fighting strongly down the straight & note 2 of his 4 career wins have been out to this mile & a half trip. (1) THRICE was ok fresh & disappointing last time, maybe he wants further, well he gets it today. (6) KURAKKA comes north having done his recent racing in Melbourne placing his past couple, wet track an unknown. (3) CAP SAINT MARTIN can improve; he just gave away too much start the latest.

Numbers: 5 – 1 – 6 – 3

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 5

With (6) CHISPA heading north to Queensland for an important Oaks lead-up stablemate (10) DONATELLO now becomes the top tip. His first 3 outings were in New Zealand before coming across the ditch & running a solid midweek fourth on the Kensington track after being posted 3 deep the trip. (5) SIRIUSLY HOT comes north having won comfortably on the Victorian provincial circuit last start, well drawn & in the right hands to measure up here. (2) BIRD WHISTLE has hit form & draws favourably whilst (13) SUNSPRITE is lightly raced & trending in the right direction.

Numbers: 10 – 5 – 2 – 13

Suggested Bet: DONATELLO EACH-WAY.

RACE 6

Chris Waller trained (12) SURF’S UP looks ready to win third-up. She’s started favourite both outings this time in & looks set to repay those who stick solid today. Thought she did enough when resuming before doing plenty late second-up to just miss, placed both wet track starts & had a tick-over trial recently to keep the fitness levels up. (8) LA ROJA will come in for plenty of support, first up doing her best work late she should appreciate the step up in distance. (14) WAKU WAKU won well fresh & did show potential last prep whilst (1) DELICHY BOULEVARD is the best horse in the race, placed at Group 1 level last start she just might need the hit out having not raced for over a year.

Numbers: 12 – 8 – 14 – 1

Suggested Bet: SURF’S UP EACH-WAY.

RACE 7

(6) SIR DINADAN appeals on an each-way basis here. He ran well this track two starts back beating all bar the winner before back 200m finding the line his latest when not really suited. Now he stretches out to 2000m which is his winning distance range & although rising in weight he does drop in class. Clear danger is (11) KING OF THE SEA who gave away a big start at Gosford before running on strongly, he looks very close. The consistent (10) TAZIMA next best.

Numbers: 6 – 11 – 10 – 3

Suggested Bet: SIR DINADAN EACH-WAY.

RACE 8

I’m well aware (4) GOD’S WINDOW comes up with a very poor gate here however I just keep coming back to him form wise & sometimes you’ve just got to ignore the draw & hope for the best. Without doubt he should have finished closer last start if not for being held up & although he did beat all bar the winner the margin should have been less. (2) KONASANA loves the sting out & can improve sharply off the Hawkesbury run whilst (18) SPIONE is in super form, no weight however another with a wide gate to contend with.

Numbers: 4 – 2 – 18 – 1

Suggested Bet: GOD’S WINDOW EACH-WAY (small bet).

RACE 9

(2) AMAZING EAGLE makes his return to the track with a new stable & a few stone lighter having been gelded over the break. He won a Listed race first up last prep & was then desperately unlucky not to win his only other run of the campaign when a strong closing Doomben second, looks ready to go off his recent trials. (6) SILVER WEDDING ran some cracking races last prep in Brisbane, we haven’t seen her since out of the money at Group 3 level in New Zealand however she was trapped wide throughout from gate 14 of 16, don’t be the least surprised to see her show up here. (9) PRIMA BELLA races well fresh & is a dead set ‘swimmer’.

Numbers: 2 – 6 – 9 – 1

Suggested Bet: AMAZING EAGLE EACH-WAY.

RACE 10

(17) INVADER ZIM appears well placed on an each-way basis in this final race having run into the placings first up & note his second-up record is very good having won both attempts. His wet track record is a positive one, in fact he’s yet to score on dry ground suggesting he’s well placed under today’s conditions. (16) FRONTEX resumes with an impressive fresh record, no problems in the going is a big market watch whilst the second up (1) GREEN SHADOWS can improve at odds into a top 4 spot for exotics players.

Numbers: 17 – 16 – 1 – 12

Suggested Bet: INVADER ZIM EACH-WAY.

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