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Digby Beacham’s AFL Season Preview

Posted on | Posted by Digby Beacham

PREMIERS – Brisbane $7*

The past two finals campaigns have not finished in the manner coach Chris Fagan and the club would have liked. There is no escaping that. But the most pertinent word in the above comment is “two”.

It is how many seasons the Lions have been active in the finals after an initial two-year realignment following the Justin Leppitsch era. That is critical. Rarely do teams just rock up into September and march all the way to the summit. There is invariably a stumble along the way. If not a stumble, a harsh lesson that drives the players and coaches, indeed the entire club, over the summer months.

Brisbane now have the necessary hurt and big-game experience to call upon to make a serious tilt at this year’s premiership. Yes, the comments about them failing to capitalise on a golden opportunity in 2020 are real. But they are also a different beast this year.

The addition of Joe Daniher gives the forward line much-needed clout, while the gifted Nakia Cockatoo is the rarest of talents with the capacity to influence matches through the midfield and in attack if he can get his body right.

Lachie Neale remains one of the elite midfielders in the competition, there is natural growth from the likes of Hugh McCluggage and Jarrod Berry and in dual All-Australian Harris Andrews, the Lions can be comfortable that opposition key forwards aren’t going to kick a bag.

BROWNLOW MEDAL – Tim Kelly $34*

West Coast’s prized recruit was solid, rather than spectacular, in his first year at the club after a stellar start to his career at Geelong.

Looking at Kelly now as opposed to 12 months ago however, would be giving all associated with the club considerable pleasure. Kelly is far more streamlined and that is a huge boost to a midfield that will be missing two-time best and fairest Elliot Yeo for a little while to start the campaign.

Even though Kelly didn’t shine as brightly last year as he did in his time with the Cats, he still polled 11 Brownlow votes, leading the way at West Coast alongside Dom Sheed. The likelihood of a far more traditional season, as opposed to the hub life that impacted so many players at so many clubs, in 2021 also works in Kelly’s favour.

A thumb injury has disrupted his pre-season, but if a player is to get any type of injury over the summer, one that doesn’t curtail their ability to get miles in their legs is the preferred choice.

Kelly is professional enough to know what is required to be ready to go for round one and if he has no further setbacks, is a big price at $34. It is worth remembering he finished top five in the 2019 Brownlow count.

COLEMAN MEDAL – Joe Daniher $10*

In fear of upsetting Essendon supporters, I am nailing my colours to the Joe Daniher mast. Think key forwards with X-factor and Lance Franklin immediately springs to mind. Daniher isn’t far behind and that takes into account his prolonged absences in 2018, 2019 and 2020.

Brisbane insiders are thrilled with how he has settled in at his new home, clearly relishing being out of the Melbourne football fishbowl that isn’t for everybody.

Granted, he is coming from a long way back. He has played just 15 games over the past three seasons. But cast your mind back to 2017 when he kicked 65.39 … four goals shy of Coleman medallist Franklin. It was a serious number of shots on goal from a young key forward.

Watching Brisbane’s game against Gold Coast on Monday night, Daniher was moving freely and launching at the contest. His addition to the Lions’ forward line will allow Eric Hipwood to play as the hit-up target, leaving him as the No.1 banana in attack.

When you compare that to Tom Hawkins ($7) and Jeremy Cameron ($9) sharing goal-kicking responsibilities at Geelong,  Daniher has more appeal at double figures.

RISING STAR – Matt Rowell $1.30*

If Matt Rowell remains upright, this award is his. Plain and simple.

There is no spoil in the price, but when a young man remains eligible to be adjudged the best young player in the land, 12 months after polling nine Brownlow Medal votes from five games in his debut season, you can understand why his quote is so prohibitive.

Rowell will face different strategies from opposition midfields in 2021, but he is a mature young man who wins his own football and makes excellent decisions with ball in hand.

If Gold Coast are to push towards an historic finals appearance, young guns like Rowell, Noah Anderson, Jack Lukosius, Izak Rankine and Ben King will be front and centre.

Ladder Prediction

1. Brisbane

2. Geelong

3. Richmond

4. Port Adelaide

5. St Kilda

6. West Coast

7. Western Bulldogs

8. Carlton

9. Collingwood

10. Fremantle

11. GWS

12. Essendon

13. Gold Coast

14. Melbourne

15. Sydney

16. Adelaide

17. North Melbourne

18. Hawthorn

*Odds correct as at 3pm, 10th March 2021.

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