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David Shortte’s AFL Finals Preview: Semi Finals

Posted on | Posted by David Shortte

FRIDAY

Fremantle v Geelong, Optus Stadium, 6.10pm

After finishing on top of the ladder in the regular season Fremantle went in to their Qualifying Final against Hawthorn as warm favourites but were unable to match the pressure of the Hawks who were comfortable winners by 32 points.

It was the first loss of the season on home soil for the Dockers who had won all 12 regular season matches prior to last week.

Geelong put a stop to Carlton’s dream run in last week’s Elimination final at the MCG cruising home for a 33 point victory.

Let’s first take a look at the two sides records over the season, over the last 10 rounds, over the last 4 weeks, and their last match.

Fremantle

Finishing Position : 1st

Season Record : 19 Wins 5 Losses

Last 10 Rounds : 6 Wins 4 Losses

Last 4 Rounds : 1 Win 3 Losses

Last Match : Fremantle 5.10 (40) lost to Hawthorn 10.12 (72) by 32 points at Optus Stadium

Geelong

Finishing Position : 5th

Season Record : 16 Wins 8 Losses

Last 10 Rounds : 7 Wins 3 Losses

Last 4 Matches : 4 Wins

Last Match : Geelong 14.23 (107) defeated Carlton 11.8 (74) by 33 points at the MCG

At no point of the contest did Fremantle look like matching it with Hawthorn in last week’s Qualifying Final. The pressure Hawthorn brought to the table was brutal and the Dockers were completely suffocated. They couldn’t get any flow in to their game whatsoever and outside of Jordan Clark nearly the remainder of the team were soundly beaten by their opponents on the night. Their top of the table position means they get another opportunity here but they are going to have to improve sharply on last week’s performance to progress to a Preliminary Final.

On the flip side Geelong looked to be in total control of their Elimination Final against Carlton. The Cats were somewhat wasteful in front of goal with their 14 goals and 23 behinds but they did more than enough with veteran Patrick Dangerfield chiming in with 5 majors.

These two sides have crossed paths twice this season – they met in Round 1 at GMHBA Stadium where Geelong 16.14 (110) beat Fremantle 14.16 (100) by 10 points, and most recently in round 15 at Optus Stadium where Fremantle 14.15 (99) defeated Geelong 14.6 (90) by 9 points

In their most recent meeting the top 8 disposal winners and multiple goal scorers for both sides were as follows :

Fremantle : Brayshaw 35, Jackson 28, Reid 27, Erasmus 24, Serong 22, Ryan 20, Worner 19, Pearce 18, Bolton 18

Geelong : Holmes 27, Bruhn 26, Humphries 24, Atkins 21, Guthrie 20, Dangerfield 20, Stevens 18, Dempsey 17

Fremantle : Jackson 3, Amiss 3, Voss 2, Treacy 2

Geelong : Martin 3, Wiltshire 2, Neale 2, Cameron 2, O. Henry 2

Fremantle Player to Watch : Luke Jackson : The Dockers big man has been excellent in both matches against Geelong this season with 27 disposals and a goal in round one and 28 disposals and 3 goals in round 15. Despite not being at his absolute best last week he still managed 22 disposals and a goal. I’ll be including him in my SGM action for this match.

Geelong Player to Watch : Patrick Dangerfield : The Veteran Cat has played some mighty games in big finals matches throughout his career and that was on repeat last week where he had 21 disposals and kicked 5 goals in the Elimination Final against Carlton. Also in recent memory is last year’s Preliminary Final where he managed 31 disposals and 3 goals. The question will be can he back it up within a week? Must be highly respected!

Fremantle have given the impression they will stick with the team that has delivered for the majority of the season so there are likely minimal changes for the home side and the Cats are expected to be very similar.

This is going to be a high pressure contest again and the million dollar question here is going to be can Fremantle cope with expectation and finals pressure? Geelong are very comfortable on the big stage and are very well coached – they will serve it right up to the Dockers.

It is now or never for this season for Fremantle. I would be surprised if they played as badly as what they did last week but they need to recapture their best form to be a genuine premiership contender.

The home ground advantage won’t simply ensure a victory for Fremantle but it may give them a slight edge and I am expecting a big response from the likes Treacy, Reid, Bolton, Jackson, Serong and Brayshaw.

VERDICT: Fremantle by 7 points

Same Game Multi:  Ollie Dempsey to get 15 or more disposals, Luke Jackson to get 20 or more disposals and Josh Treacy to kick 2 or more goals @ $3.45*

SATURDAY

Brisbane v Adelaide, GABBA, 5.35pm

Brisbane were short priced favourites for their match-up with the depleted Sydney Swans at the SCG but the match did not go to script and Brisbane were blown apart by the Swans losing by 53 points.

Adelaide had to wait until late in the piece to get the better of the Western Bulldogs in their Elimination Final, eventually winning by 22 points.

Let’s take a look at the two sides records over the season, over the last 10 rounds, over the last 4 weeks, and last week.

Brisbane

Finishing Position : 3rd

Season Record : 16 Wins 8 Losses

Last 10 Rounds : 8 Wins 2 Losses

Last 4 Weeks : 3 Wins 1 Loss

Last Match : Brisbane 13.10 (88) lost to Sydney 21.15 (141) by 53 points at the SCG

Adelaide

Finishing Position : 6th

Season Record : 16 Wins 8 Losses

Last 10 Rounds : 7 Wins 3 Losses

Last 4 Rounds : 3 Wins, 1 Loss

Last Match : Adelaide 14.6 (90) defeated Western Bulldogs 9.14 (68) by 22 points at the Adelaide Oval

These two sides have met just once this season, back in round 7 where Brisbane 19.13 (127) defeated Adelaide 11.9 (75) by 52 points at the GABBA.

In their most recent meeting the top 8 disposal winners and multiple goal scorers for both sides were as follows :

Brisbane : Neale 42, W Ashcroft 36, Bailey 29, McCarthy 23, Dunkley 22, L Ashcroft 22, Wilmot 21, Fletcher 21

Adelaide : Laird 29, Dawson 28, Milera 22, Michalanney 21, Cook 20, Rankine 19, Cumming 18, Berry 18

Brisbane : Cameron 4, Bailey 3, Morris 2, McKenna 2, McLuggage 2

Adelaide : Pedlar 3, Rankine 2, Dawson 2

WHERE THERE’S A WILL : Will Ashcroft has had a relatively quiet fortnight by his standards with disposal counts of 25 and 21 but prior to that he had 9 straight games of 30 plus disposal matches including a 38 and a 39. I expect him to bounce back hard here.

TOP RANK : Izak Rankine continued his remarkable form last week with his last four matches producing spectacular numbers. His disposal counts of 34, 36, 39 and 35 have included multiple double digit clearance numbers and he also managed another 2 goals against the Dogs.

The Lions have had a knack of bouncing back hard off disappointing losses in recent years and this match looks like one of those.

They return to their home deck at the GABBA and are well aware that this is win or you are finished contest. I expect them to recapture their best footy and take a power of beating.

VERDICT: Brisbane by 29 points

Same Game Multi : Dayne Zorko and Jordan Dawson to both get 20 or more disposals, Will Ashcroft and Izak Rankine to both get 25 or more disposals and Logan Morris to kick 2 or more goals @ $3.15*

VALUE MULTI

I’ll also be taking a value Multi across the two games with Jye Amiss and Josh Treacy to both kick 2 or more goals, Logan Morris to kick 3 or more goals and Will Ashcroft and Izak Rankine to both get 30 or more disposals which is paying $20.14*

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