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Robbie Von’s F1 – Spanish Grand Prix Preview

Posted on | Posted by Robbie Von

FROM 19TH TO FIRST. AT HOME. THERE’S NO DOUBTS ABOUT KIMI NOW!

Kimi Antonelli has just produced one of, if not THE, greatest Sporting Moment of 2026! I’ll put my hand up and say it, I didn’t think it was possible. I tipped him last week to romp home for a Top 3 berth… but not the win. The 20 year old did it. 19th on the grid and he’s fought back to take out top spot. Unbelievable.

If there was ever any doubt about Kimi, that is now quashed. The boy is the real deal. First Italian to win his home Grand Prix in 60 years, in front of the Tifosi, from the back of the grid. That was special and so is Kimi Antonelli!

George Russell led most of it and got beaten again by his teammate, which is becoming a theme. Pierre Gasly grabbed a shock pole for Alpine, his first in nine years of trying. And Ferrari’s home race went about as badly as it could, with Leclerc crashing out on lap two.

WHERE THE CHAMPIONSHIP STANDS

Antonelli: 267 points. Russell: 201. Hamilton: 191. Norris: 171. Leclerc: 155. Verstappen: 127. Piastri: 116. Sixty-six points clear with 10 races to go. That’s nearly three wins worth of buffer. The championship is now Kimi Antonelli’s to lose.

HANG ON. DIDN’T SPAIN ALREADY HAVE A GRAND PRIX?

Yes, but it wasn’t the Spanish Grand Prix. Weird answer, but here’s why…

Barcelona hosted back in June and Hamilton won it… but… this weekend we’re in Madrid for the ACTUAL Spanish Grand Prix.

So, Barcelona’s contract ran to the end of 2026. Madrid’s ten year deal started in 2026. Strangely, both locked in for the same season, so F1 moved the name rather than the slot. Barcelona got rebranded to the Barcelona-Catalunya Grand Prix and Madrid took the Spanish Grand Prix title. Only two countries have more than one race this year. America has three, Spain has two. That’s the list. And Barcelona isn’t finished. They’ve done a deal to rotate with Spa, so they’re back in 2028, 2030 and 2032.

NOBODY REALLY HAS ANY IDEA ABOUT THIS NEW TRACK

This is what makes Madrid genuinely exciting.

Three drivers on the entire grid have ever turned a wheel here. Hamilton and Leclerc did a filming day back in July, and Carlos Sainz has been involved as an ambassador. That’s it. There’s no testing before the weekend either, so everyone rolls into Friday practice blind.

Formula 3 tested there last month and called it Jeddah on steroids. Over two days they had 19 red flags.

Sainz is openly predicting safety cars and red flags. Hamilton reckons it’ll be a qualifying lap circuit where overtaking is hard. The walls are close, the barriers are unforgiving, and if you get it wrong you’re in them.

The corner everyone’s talking about is Turn 12, nicknamed La Monumental. It’s a 550 metre banked monster named after a Spanish bullring, with grandstands wrapped around it like an arena. Leclerc says you’ll need to be very brave through there in qualifying. He’s probably underselling it.

ONE FOR LEWIS

Hamilton and Michael Schumacher are tied on six Spanish Grand Prix wins each, the most of any driver in history. His Barcelona win in June doesn’t count toward it, because that race wasn’t the Spanish Grand Prix. So if Lewis wins in Madrid, he goes clear of Schumacher on his own. Two weeks after Ferrari ran a Schumacher tribute at Monza. Keep an eye on that one.

THE TEAMS

Mercedes

Antonelli favourite at $2.75 to win and $1.30 Top 3. He just won from 19th. Backing against him right now feels brave. Russell at $5.50 to win and $1.58 Top 3 needs a big weekend. The ‘Team to Feature Winning Driver’ at $1.90 is the anchor play again.

McLaren

Norris at $4.25 to win and $1.45 Top 3. He’s won two of the last four and this track should suit a car that’s strong through corners, which is exactly what McLaren have. Piastri at $11.00 to win and $3.25 Top 3 is finally showing signs of life.

Ferrari

Hamilton and Leclerc both $8.00 to win and $2.25 Top 3. Hamilton has driven this circuit and has that record on the line. Leclerc needs to bounce back from a horror weekend at Monza.

Red Bull

Verstappen at $10.00 to win and $3.00 Top 3. Five podiums this season and still no win. On a chaotic new circuit where anything can happen, he’s the sort of driver who thrives.

PLAYS FOR THIS WEEKEND

Lewis Hamilton to Win – $8.00 (one of only three who has driven it)

Kimi Antonelli Top 3 – $1.30 (Only a crash or car issue would see him out of the Top 3)

Lando Norris Top 3 – $1.45

Max Verstappen Top 3 – $3.00 (chaos suits him)

Mercedes ‘Team to Feature Winning Driver’ – $1.90

A brand new circuit nobody has raced. 19 red flags in an F3 test. A banked bullring of a corner and no form guide whatsoever. This is shaping up to be the most interesting race of 2026.

Happy punting!

Odds correct at time of publication.

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