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Digby Beacham’s AFL Preview: Round 13

Posted on | Posted by Digby Beacham

THURSDAY

Port Adelaide v Western Bulldogs, Adelaide Oval, 5.50pm

Port Adelaide chalked up the win they needed last week against Richmond and simply must follow suit here opposed to the Western Bulldogs. Barring something unforeseen occurring, they will do exactly that.

The forecast of a wild winter’s night suits the Power, who have the ability to play an uncompromising brand of football for longer than the Bulldogs. The presence of Sam Powell-Pepper around the contest against the Tigers was impossible to overlook and you sense the likelihood of stoppage after stoppage will appeal to the young bull.

The Bulldogs struggled in wet conditions against Adelaide last month and though they should be better for the experience, their inability to impact the scoreboard regularly even in fine conditions means they are unlikely to cause Port any concerns.

VERDICT: Port Adelaide by 32 points

FRIDAY

Sydney v West Coast, SCG, 5.50pm

For a team riding a 10-game winning streak that is quite rightly in the premiership conversation being installed as an outsider for a match is an indication of the enormity of the challenge confronting it. West Coast … welcome to the SCG for your Friday night date with Sydney.

The Eagles haven’t won at the saucer-shaped venue since 1999 and bookmakers and most pundits believe their run of outs will continue. It’s a view that is entirely understandable. The Eagles make the trip without Jack Darling (ankle), a significant blow that will expose teenage first-gamer Jarrod Brander to the organised and miserly Swans defence.

If West Coast are to spring an upset, it will be back on the back of Nic Naitanui and Scott Lycett winning the ruck battle against Callum Sinclair, who has stepped up admirably as the No.1 big man in the absence of Sam Naismith. Lance Franklin dined out with eight goals when the Swans beat the Eagles in round one, the ability of John Longmire to create space for his spearhead critical in the haul. That might be harder to get here, but Franklin does save some of his best work for the SCG.

VERDICT: Sydney by 14 points

SATURDAY

Carlton v Fremantle, Etihad Stadium, 11.45am

The AFL fixture throws up its fair share of quirks and Fremantle are entitled to be scratching their heads over why they are presented with a six-day break and travel for this match against a Carlton side that had last weekend off. That said, the only thing that matters is who prevails at the final siren and Dockers fans should be confident it will be their side.

The loss of Michael Walters (suspension) and Alex Pearce (broken thumb) is significant, but the return of Nat Fyfe for his 150th match and the expected availability of Aaron Sandilands gives Fremantle an undeniable presence in the centre square where Carlton’s best player, WA star Patrick Cripps, can be most damaging.

The Blues aren’t a heavy-scoring outfit and that suits Dockers coach Ross Lyon, who is happiest when involved in an arm-wrestle rather than a shootout. It doesn’t present as a match overflowing with highlights, but that doesn’t diminish its importance.

VERDICT: Fremantle by 18 points

Gold Coast v St Kilda, Metricon Stadium, 2.35pm

Given the ills of both Gold Coast and St Kilda, this match would normally have little appeal to anyone other than those associated with the respective clubs. Oddly however, these sort of contests capture the attention of many neutral fans because of the grim consequences awaiting the losers.

The Suns have resembled anything but a professional sporting club over the past two weeks and the same criticism could be levelled at the Saints after the initial 30 minutes last Saturday night opposed to Sydney. How Stuart Dew and Alan Richardson pick up the pieces and extract a committed response from their charges will be intriguing.

It might be a flawed approach, but perhaps drawing a line through the teams’ efforts in WA against West Coast is a way of working out a winner here. The Suns were annihilated earlier in the season, whereas the Saints found a way to hang tough only recently.

VERDICT: St Kilda by 20 points

Hawthorn v Adelaide, MCG, 5.25pm

Some coaches will tell you that milestone games mean little. But if Hawthorn can’t find a way to get up for Shaun Burgoyne’s 350th appearance in a match that is critically important to their finals aspirations, you are entitled to be staggered.

The Hawks hit this match fresh after having their bye last weekend, whereas the wounded Crows travel interstate for the second successive week after failing to get over a Fremantle team missing arguably its four best players. In a further blow, Adelaide front up here minus quality defender Luke Brown (ankle).

Hawthorn found a way to get over the top of Port Adelaide in Tasmania in the week before the bye, with their defensive work after quarter-time outstanding. A similar level of commitment should be sufficient to stifle a Crows line-up that is nowhere near as prolific in attack as we have become accustomed to.

VERDICT: Hawthorn by 24 points

SUNDAY

Richmond v Geelong, MCG, 1.20pm

Geelong have been waiting for an opportunity to square up with Richmond since they were humbled in last year’s qualifying final. In the words of Paul Roos after Sydney won the 2005 grand final … “Here it is”.

Importantly for Chris Scott and the Cats, they have recaptured some of their best form in the past fortnight, which has coincided with Gary Ablett producing the level of football that has become the norm for the majority of his career. The dual Brownlow medallist has been prolific and alongside Patrick Dangerfield, Joel Selwood, Tim Kelly, Mitch Duncan and Sam Menegola, responsible for a glut of possession.

But Richmond at the MCG is completely different to Gold Coast at Metricon Stadium and North Melbourne down in Geelong. The Tigers will hit the Cats with everything and apply a level of pressure that has no peer when Damien Hardwick’s men are dialled in. Add Dustin Martin back into the equation after a week off with a calf tweak and Richmond’s love affair with the venue and you can understand why the premiers are favourites.

VERDICT: Richmond by 21 points

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