Digby Beacham’s AFL Preview: Round 11

Posted on May 28, 2023May 28, 2023 | Posted by Digby Beacham

FRIDAY

Sydney v Carlton, SCG, 5.50pm

Cast your mind back two months. Following round two, supporters of Sydney were content with their side’s 2-0 start, while Carlton were also unbeaten and had just taken down last year’s premiers Geelong.

How times have changed. Both teams are desperate for a win under the Friday night lights in a bid to climb into finals calculations, with the heat surrounding Michael Voss and his players creating enormous interest for so many.

The Blues have had their issues moving the ball and also hitting the scoreboard. However, if they can own the midfield here and give Charlie Curnow and Harry McKay enough looks against a depleted Swans backline, they can leave the Harbour City with four crucial points.

VERDICT: Carlton to win

---

SATURDAY

St Kilda v Hawthorn, Marvel Stadium, 11.45am

Ross Lyon and Sam Mitchell don’t need to be told twice at the importance of a key forward ahead of this clash boasting top-four implications for St Kilda.

The Saints looked a far more dangerous outfit last round with the return of Max King, just as Hawthorn have been far more potent following Mitch Lewis’ re-integration into the line-up. Both will be expected to shoulder a fair load here, with King’s ability to back up just six days after his recall to be watched closely.

The Hawks did as they pleased against West Coast. But to say a Ross Lyon-coached team is different to a woeful West Coast is an understatement of note.

VERDICT: St Kilda to win by 16 points or more

Melbourne v Fremantle, MCG, 12.10pm

Can the Fremantle juggernaut continue rolling into the club’s mid-season bye? The TABtouch market would suggest no, but when you factor in Melbourne are without midfield duo Clayton Oliver and Lachie Hunter, surely the Dockers get a look.

Importantly, the Dockers seized on a gilt-edged opportunity against a wounded Geelong last weekend. That victory, coupled with a stirring victory over Melbourne in the corresponding match last season, serves Justin Longmuir’s men well.

What we do know however is the Demons, when in synch, play a powerful brand of football. Their 30-minute burst in wet weather during the third term against Port Adelaide was intoxicating.

VERDICT: Fremantle to win 

Geelong v GWS, GMHBA Stadium, 2.35pm

The comforts of home cannot be understated. Having gone under the past two weeks to Richmond and Fremantle, Geelong return to familiar surrounds of GMHBA Stadium.

And this is a clash that, despite their lengthy injury list, coach Chris Scott knows must simply fall their way. GWS are a bottom-four side at full strength and they aren’t going to resemble anything like with Josh Kelly’s hamstring issue leaving them exposed through the middle. Then there is concussed pair Nick Haynes and Harry Himmelberg.

The Cats in Geelong remains a brute of an assignment. Thinking Jeremy Cameron could really turn one on against his former team.

VERDICT: Geelong -40.5 points at the line

Gold Coast v Western Bulldogs, TIO Stadium, 5.25pm

The recruitment of Liam Jones in the off-season by the Western Bulldogs was always going to spark a lot of debate. It has also undeniably provided a spark to the Bulldogs’ premiership push.

Luke Beveridge’s side is now an elite defensive unit. That’s right. An elite defensive unit. It is not something we have associated with the Bulldogs for a while now, yet their ability to stifle opposition sides’ forward lines has been the cornerstone to their surge up the ladder.

History shows that night games in Darwin can prove problematic for teams hoping to kick a big total. That represents a challenge for Gold Coast, who simply couldn’t match motors with Brisbane after half-time last weekend.

VERDICT: Western Bulldogs by 1-39 points

West Coast v Essendon, Optus Stadium, 5.40pm

West Coast coach Adam Simpson said all the right things in the wake of his side’s capitulation to Hawthorn. There was no attempt to sugar-coat a performance which arguably has left the Eagles in the worst predicament in their proud history.

The response at home will be fascinating. If there is a similar lacklustre approach from the Eagles, Essendon will not only consign the hosts to yet another soul-crushing defeat, but ensure the spotlight shines brighter than ever before on Simpson.

Though they boast a 5-5 win-loss record, the Bombers have been terrific for new coach Brad Scott. They will be 6-5 after having their way with the Eagles.

VERDICT: Essendon to win by 40 points or more

---

SUNDAY

Richmond v Port Adelaide, MCG, 11.10am

How can you confidently predict what sort of effort Richmond turn in here? Their finals hopes on life support after coughing up another close match last weekend, the players now must make the adjustment to life after Damien Hardwick.

A list in transition with an emotional group of fans who still believe a flag is attainable, it is difficult to know what transpires. Port Adelaide will be on red-alert knowing that overcoming the Tigers before their supporters at the MCG requires 100 per cent commitment.

Will interim coach Andrew McQualter put some work into opposition midfielders? Hardwick was more interested in worrying about his own players than the opposition. Zac Butters is in too good of nick to simply ignore.

VERDICT: Port Adelaide to win

Collingwood v North Melbourne, Marvel Stadium, 1.20pm

How on earth do you make a case for North Melbourne here? Granted, the same conversation was probably being had a week ago when the Kangaroos fronted up to Sydney.

But this is different gravy. The Magpies don’t have any weak links. None. Not one. They are the complete package and roll into this game off a good, solid test from Carlton which they passed with flying colours.

We keep waiting for Collingwood to throw in a dodgy performance. Don’t hold your breath.

VERDICT: Collingwood to win by 40 points or more

Adelaide v Brisbane, Adelaide Oval, 2.40pm

From the moment the final Adelaide side was named for last week’s match against the Western Bulldogs in Ballarat, you just knew that Matthew Nicks and his coaching staff had put every egg available into the basket for this match.

There were no risks taking with selection and an undermanned side was badly beaten. Expect a response here with several key players available, including Taylor Walker. And it is his return which will cause Chris Fagan concern considering Jack Payne (concussion) won’t make the trip to SA.

At the other end of the ground, Joe Daniher is enjoying an excellent patch of form, as are Lachie Neale, Josh Dunkley, Hugh McCluggage and Will Ashcroft.

VERDICT: Adelaide to win

Market Market