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Digby Beacham’s AFL Preview: Round 1

Posted on | Posted by Digby Beacham

THURSDAY

Richmond v Carlton, MCG, 4.25pm

An all-conquering outfit chasing a third successive premiership opposed to a side with genuine upside, but battling an extensive injury list. It is little wonder Richmond have been installed favourites to continue their recent dominance against Carlton.

All indicators over summer is the Tigers aren’t done yet. They remain hungry, knowing full well a place in history awaits them should they join Brisbane and Hawthorn as the only teams this century to win three consecutive premierships.

When you have a swag of A-graders, chiefly Dustin Martin, it certainly helps your cause. Talking of causes, the Blues aren’t a lost one. They have the depth and class to move up the ladder, but they need to get healthy first.

VERDICT: Richmond by 33 points

FRIDAY

Collingwood v Western Bulldogs, MCG, 4.50pm

The first edition of the Adam Treloar Cup takes place here in a match which could reveal plenty.

Are the Magpies able to overcome the controversial departure of Treloar and remain in the top-eight conversation to save Nathan Buckley’s job? Can Treloar show overcome his mental demons to move past his Collingwood days and be a prime mover in a Bulldogs midfield that bats ridiculously deep? And are the Bulldogs going to have a forward structure that allows them to contend?

The last question could be the most pertinent one here because the Magpies are very proficient defensively. Exhibit A is the corresponding match in round one last year when the Bulldogs could muster just five goals.

VERDICT: Collingwood by 10 points

SATURDAY

Melbourne v Fremantle, MCG, 10.45am

West Coast fans aside, you could almost hear a collective groan from supporters during Fremantle’s official pre-season encounter against the Eagles. A summer of real growth was dealt a savage blow with Rory Lobb (knee), Michael Walters (hamstring), Mitch Crowden (calf), Michael Frederick (calf) and Bailey Banfield (ankle) coming to grief.

It makes their round-one assignment against Melbourne, which still remains winnable given the Demons’ own injury toll, all that much harder. That especially applies to Lloyd Meek, who will make his debut against arguably the best ruckman in the competition, Melbourne captain Max Gawn.

Dockers coach Justin Longmuir has stipulated he wants more goals from his side in 2021. It could well be difficult in light of their personnel issues, but a double-figure return regardless of the final margin would be a start.

VERDICT: Melbourne by 5 points

Adelaide v Geelong, Adelaide Oval, 1.35pm

In the back end of 2020, Adelaide took some steps forward. Unlike earlier in the season, they didn’t take five backward to offset the signs of progress.

They will need to have seriously built on that, however in the pre-season if they’re to make the perfect start to Matthew Nicks’ second year at the helm. Geelong are a better team entering this campaign than they were in 2020, with the addition of Jeremy Cameron, Shaun Higgins and Isaac Smith giving them the necessary firepower to again contend.

Though the Cats are without Mitch Duncan (calf), coach Chris Scott has access to just about everyone in his preferred 22. That means they hit the ground running here.

VERDICT: Geelong by 39 points

Essendon v Hawthorn, Marvel Stadium, 4.25pm

If you tipped incorrectly in the other genuine 50-50 game earlier in the round — Collingwood v Western Bulldogs — you will be hoping to have called correctly when the coin lands in this encounter.

It would be a major shock if either team played finals, yet the Bombers remain a curious watch. Coach Ben Rutten has worked overtime during the pre-season to embrace the club’s past and improve culture, with a string of new faces expected to be exposed early in the year.

Essendon will relish this match being on the slick surrounds of Marvel Stadium and will ask questions of the Hawks, who are very much in the rejuvenation phase.

VERDICT: Essendon by 11 points

Brisbanbe v Sydney, Gabba, 4.45pm

No team has fared better in the past two home-and-away seasons than Brisbane. If we are to believe what we are hearing out of south-east Queensland, there is no reason why the streak won’t extend to three.

The Lions, even factoring in the year-ending knee injury suffered by Cam Rayner, look settled, hungry and boasting the necessary attacking firepower thanks to the addition of Joe Daniher to make a mess of inferior rivals.

And for all their own progress in building a strong squad and blooding fresh faces, Sydney are not anywhere near the level of the Lions. Logan McDonald was Sydney’s first choice in last year’s national draft. He debuts here and irrespective of how he fares, the Perth product is a ripper.

VERDICT: Brisbane by 36 points

SUNDAY

North Melbourne v Port Adelaide, Marvel Stadium, 10.10am

There are initiations into the AFL coaching ranks and then there are INITIATIONS into the AFL coaching ranks. North Melbourne’s David Noble is getting the latter.

Port Adelaide stretched the necks of Richmond in a preliminary final last year and we all know how that formline stacked up the following week. Add Aliir Aliir and Orazio Fantasia to the Power outfit, coupled with another summer in the gym for so much of their young talent, and it is easy to slot Ken Hinkley’s side into the top four.

Conversely, it is impossible to see how the Kangaroos finish anywhere but the bottom four. They are very much a work in progress and if the pre-season is any guide, the progress has been somewhat slow.

VERDICT: Port Adelaide by 45 points

GWS v St Kilda, Giants Stadium, 12.20pm

St Kilda have established a squad that has the capacity to not only play finals football again in 2021, but push for a top-four berth. Ambitious? Perhaps, but the profile of the list at Brett Ratten’s disposal is undeniably exciting.

That is when it is at full strength. It will be far removed from full pelt though because of an injury list that is extensive and some issues away from the cut and thrust that has already claimed Brad Crouch and Paddy Ryder.

As a result, Greater Western Sydney are presented with a perfect chance to hit the ground running. They themselves aren’t anywhere near full strength, but this presents as a real venue game which tips the scales in the favour of the Giants.

VERDICT: GWS by 8 points

West Coast v Gold Coast, Optus Stadium, 3.10pm

Even in the absence of captain Luke Shuey (hamstring) and Elliot Yeo (osteitis pubis), there are no excuses for West Coast in step one on the road to an all-important top-four berth.

The Eagles have had their niggles along the summer, but will have 45,000 fans cheering them on against a young side that is very much on the watch list, but potentially another season away from being a legitimate finals threat.

Josh Kennedy and Jack Darling in attack, alongside the most improved player in the competition Liam Ryan, provides the Eagles with enormous potency, while the threat of Nic Naitanui will no doubt have consumed much of Jarrod Witts’ thoughts in the lead-up.

VERDICT: West Coast by 37 points

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