Sports

David Shortte’s AFL Preview: Round 11

Posted on | Posted by David Shortte

THURSDAY

Hawthorn v Adelaide, UTAS Stadium, 5.30pm

After a strong start to the season the Hawks have gone winless over the last 3 weeks with a draw against Collingwood, a 15 point loss to Fremantle and a 39 point loss to Melbourne. Importantly they return to their home away from home at UTAS Stadium where they have won 12 in a row by an average winning margin of 38 points.

The Crows have overcome a slow start to the season and regained some form over the last 6 weeks winning 5 of their last 6 matches including a 68 point demolition job on the Kangaroos last week.

Gunston will be missing again for the Hawks but they will welcome back Mabior Chol and Conor Nash. For Adelaide they will enjoy the inclusion of some forward weapons with Riley Thilthorpe and Callum Ah-Chee returning to action. This is no tap in for the Hawks but their record at this venue is hard to ignore and they get a very good opportunity to return to the winner’s list here.

VERDICT: Hawthorn by 17 points

Same Game Multi: Sam Berry and James Sicily to both get 15 or more disposals and Karl Amon, Jai Newcombe, Jordan Dawson and Rory Laird to all get 20 or more disposals @ $3.30*

FRIDAY

Richmond v Essendon, MCG, 5.45pm

The Tigers won their solitary game for this season 3 weeks ago against West Coast but have since lost to the Crows by 37 points and Saint Kilda by 36 points. Their injury list is longer than one of Victor Wembanyana’s arms at the minute but they won’t get many better chances to win another game this year than this.

It has been another challenging season for the Bombers and like the Tigers they have just one win on the board this season. Last week they were blown away in the first half by Fremantle and went on to lose by 43 points.

In fairness trying to tip in to this game comes with significant road blocks. Both sides have genuine injury issues and are low on confidence after limited success in recent times. I’ll tip the Bombers but nothing would surprise in this.

VERDICT: Essendon by 11 points.

Same Game Multi: Jayden Short and Jack Ross to both get 20 or more disposals and Archie Roberts and Zach Merrett to both get 30 or more disposals @ $4.10*

Fremantle v St Kilda, Optus Stadium, 6.30pm

Fremantle made it 9 wins in a row last week when beating Essendon by 43 points at the MCG. They can make it a club record 10 in a row if successful here.

St Kilda have had a good month winning 3 of their last 4 games and they were comfortable 6 goal winners over the Tigers last week.

The Dockers have been in splendid form and are playing with great confidence. While St Kilda are ticking over quite well Freo are white hot right now and I expect the Dockers to continue on their winning ways.

VERDICT: Fremantle by 33 points.

Same Game Multi: Murphy Reid, Max Hall and Callum Wilkie to all get 20 or more disposals and Josh Treacy to kick 2 goals or more @ $3.45*

SATURDAY

North Melbourne v Gold Coast, Marvel Stadium, 11.15am

The Kangaroos had a nice start to the season but they have now lost their last 4 in a row and last week’s 68 point loss to Adelaide was poor.

The Suns maintained their spectacular record up at TIO Stadium over the last fortnight beating Saint Kilda by 29 points and Port Adelaide by 25 points. That said they looked out on their feet in the last quarter against Port last week and the effects of two games in energy sapping conditions in the NT could potentially leave them a little flat.

On pure form Gold Coast are going significantly better than North Melbourne – the Suns are in 4th spot on the ladder while the blue and whites sit in 12th spot. There is part of me that is slightly concerned about Gold Coast being a touch flat but if both sides play close to their top then the Suns likely grab the 4 points.

VERDICT: Gold Coast by 7 points.

Same Game Multi: Luke Davis-Uniacke, Luke Parker, Christian Petracca and Bodhi Uwland to all get 20 or more disposals and Paul Curtis to kick 2 or more goals @ $3.95*

Geelong v Sydney, GMHBA Stadium, 2.15pm

The Cats are in a hot run of form wining their last 3 matches against the Kangaroos by 49 points, Collingwood by 54 points and then last week they headed up to the GABBA and beat the Lions by 41 points.

Sydney remain on top of the AFL table with 9 wins and just the 1 loss. They had to pull out all stops to beat an undermanned Collingwood outfit last week but overall their form has been elite.

This shapes as one of the games of the season between two of the most dangerous teams in the competition. It is important to note that both sides have top tier taggers with James Jordan touted to be a possible stopper for either Max Holmes, Bailey Smith or Tom Stewart while Oisin Mullen has the capabilities to clamp down on one of the key Swans, quite possibly Isaac Heeney. Home ground advantage sees me lean towards the Cats but I expect it to be a nailbiter.

VERDICT: Geelong by 7 points.

Same Game Multi: Riley Bice, Tom Atkins and Lawson Humphries to all get 15 or more disposals, Justin McInerney to get 20 or more disposals and Shaun Mannagh and Shannon Neale to both kick 1 or more goals @ $3.50*

Collingwood v West Coast, MCG, 2.35pm

The AFL Games record will be broken in this match with Collingwood champion Scott Pendlebury set to play his 433rd AFL match. The Pies handed in a tremendous performance last week taking an undermanned side to the SCG to take on ladder leaders Sydney and going under by just 6 points.

West Coast brought up their 3rd win of the season with an upset victory over the GWS by 17 points. Young Gun Harley Reid was magnificent with 34 disposals, 10 clearances, 8 tackles and 2 goals.

What a special opportunity lies in store for all AFL Fans to pay tribute to a Legend of our game in Scott Pendlebury – he deserves every plaudit that comes his way. While a lot of the focus will be on him the Pies will want to make sure that they celebrate the milestone with a victory. For the young West Coast list what a superb experience it will be to play at the MCG in front of a packed house in such an occasion. I think the Pies will ride the emotion and win well.

VERDICT: Collingwood by 42 points.

Same Game Multi: Collingwood to win, Elliot Yeo and Brayden Maynard to both get 15 or more disposals and Josh Daicos, Jordan DeGoey and Harley Reid to all get 20 or more disposals @ $3.55*

Port Adelaide v Carlton, Adelaide Oval, 5.35pm

Port have now lost 4 of their last 5 matches but 3 of them have been by margins of 3 points, 2 points and 1 point and their win was a good one knocking off Geelong by 5 goals. Last week they went up to TIO Stadium to take on the Suns and the eventual margin of 25 points isn’t really a  true reflection of how close that match got in the last quarter.

The change of Coach worked it’s magic last week for the Blues with Carlton bringing up their 2nd win of the season, defeating the Western Bulldogs by 12 points.

Port courtesy of home ground honours get the nod here but they have been on the wrong end of a few close finishes this season and I wouldn’t faint if Carlton served it right up to them in what should be a tight tussle.

VERDICT: Port Adelaide by 5 points

Same Game Multi: Jagga Smith, Patrick Cripps and Sam Walsh to all get 20 or more disposals, Zak Butters to get 30 or more disposals and Mitch Georgiades to kick 2 or more goals @ $4*

SUNDAY

GWS v Brisbane, Engie Stadium, 10.30am

GWS find themselves in 13th spot on the AFL table with a record of 4 wins and 6 losses after a disappointing 17 point loss to West Coast last week. They will need to raise their rating significantly off that performance to get their season back on track here.

The reigning premiers Brisbane haven’t had things go all their way this season to date with their 6 win, 4 loss record indicating they have not been at their dominant best. Their 41 point loss at the hand of the Cats last week could be the catalyst to come out breathing fire here.

In recent seasons when Brisbane have been challenged they have traditionally found a way to bounce back to playing footy on their terms and that could spell trouble for a Giants side that have struggled for consistency in season 2026..

VERDICT: Brisbane by 22 points

Same Game Multi: Clayton Oliver, Lachie Whitfield and Dayne Zorko to all get 25 or more disposals and Logan Morris to kick 2 or more goals @ $3*

Western Bulldogs v Melbourne, Marvel Stadium, 1.15pm

After winning their first 4 matches of the season the Doggies have had a horror run of injuries along with some poor form which has seen them drop 5 of their last 6 matches including a 12 point loss to Carlton last week.

Melbourne continue to deliver and they have now won 4 of their last 5 including a stunning 39 point victory over Hawthorn last week.

The Doggies traditionally play their best footy at Marvel Stadium and I believe they are a lot better than what they have shown in recent times but on pure form Melbourne are simply playing better for longer. Until that changes I’ll stick with the Demons.

VERDICT: Melbourne by 7 points.

Same Game Multi: Ryley Sanders and Jake Bowey to both get 20 or more disposals and Marcus Bontempelli and Bailey Dale to both get 25 or more disposals @ $3.20*

*Odds correct at the time of publication.

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