Races

Scott Embry’s Saturday Ascot Preview

Posted on | Posted by Scott Embry

RACE 1

BARTIME was a model of consistency when last in work, racing in this grade on five occasions for a win and two minors. Whilst 1400m seems to be more his go, this is first-up and fresh and off the back of two trails, the last of which where junior rider Ebony Johnson let him roll and allowed him to stride. He’ll work across from the outside and join fellow on speeder Cherlys Shout and from the breeze he looms as the one to beat. COBBANCO gets in under the radar a bit. Admittedly he hasn’t won a race since the 8th of April 2023, a run of 25 outs, however, he has finished within 2L of the winner in 66+ and 72+ grade on four occasions in that period and his fresh run behind Thermosphere Lad wasn’t too bad. RAINLINE should get a soft run and is a great use of the Holly Nottle claim. RISE TO GLORY is again drawn awkwardly and naturally gets off the speed. Leaves himself a lot to do.  

Numbers: 2 – 5 – 4 – 6             

Suggested Bet – BARTIME WIN  

RACE 2

SNITZALATTE and SWINGMAN went head to head in a near identical race to this 17 days ago where SNITZALATTE came out victorious by a long neck margin. There is a 1.5kg weight swing in favour of SWINGMAN to try and turn the tables, however, at the same time SNITZALATTE was first-up without a trial and should only be improved fitness wise. Theres a fair bit more speed in this event than the last time that they met and that probably only further enhances her winning chances. SWINGMAN hasn’t finished further back than second in each of his four runs this campaign. He’s going great guns but still not convinced he’s a natural 1000m horse, however, with horses like Jolson Al, Wiluna Lass and Gypsy Rhyme he has the option to sit if he wants. SLIP THE JAB will sit back and look to have last crack at them but the more favoured pair had him safely covered at their last meeting. GYPSY RHYME looks like having to do too much work from the outside gate, but might be a filly to follow.  

Numbers: 1 – 2 – 3 – 6

Suggested Bet – SNITZALATTE WIN

RACE 3  

DESERT WAVES beat home WESTBOUND last start and I’m not convinced that the 2kg weight swing is enough on its own to turn the tables on a 1.44L margin. The blinkers are the bigger element of intrigue. DESERT WAVES looked on paper like rolling to the top, controlling and kicking away in that Grad 1400 a fortnight ago and realistically this looks a very similar set up? Unless they try to kick Tropicconi out it looks like Holly Nottle and Desert Waves will again lead without that much pressure and from there he’s the one to beat. Best part about him, is that was the first time in his life that he had led a race, so he doesn’t need to lead to win. WESTBOUND trialled moderately (kind) but showed first-up that he was back on track and with the shades and Tommy Berry’s engagement he’ll have plenty of admirers and justifiably so. STYLISH LORD is just a length or two below genuine 66+/72+ company and that’s evidenccd by the fact that he runs well every time they drop him back into this grade. KERVETTE a watch fresh.  

Numbers: 2 – 5 – 1 – 4   

Suggested Bet – DESERT WAVES WIN  

RACE 4  

HOLLER NUFF is an emerging 3 year old who looks hard to beat again. He ran out of his skin on Bunbury Cup Day first-up over 1200m when rattling home against the pattern itno third behind Swingman and Gods Cross and then duly saluted second-up. He took a big step from 1200 to 1600m third-up and now fourth-up gets out to 1800m. He’ll enjoy a near identical run in transit here and quite simply has more upside and progression than his older rivals. Horse on the up. MISTRESS OF WAR is no star, in fact, she’s a battler, but she’s giving 110% and she’s racing at the peak of her powers. She’ll roll forward, she’ll set a genuine tempo and she’ll kick hard into the corner. Couldn’t be going any better. I DREAMED A DREAM has chased hard into second at his last two but likely settles a pair behind Holler Nuff again? BIRDS THE WORD did win a Grad 1760 at Kalgoorlie so the distance is no issue and Charlotte Skerritt has him flying (quality pun).    

Numbers: 4 – 10 – 5 – 2  

Suggested Bet – HOLLER NUFF WIN  

RACE 5  

AVOIDANCE absolutely walked them last start. First 800m run 12.5L slower than average, Last 600m run 7.5L faster than average. He was given a picnic out in front and took full advantage. There will be many knocking him for that performance and for getting it so cheaply, but who is going to pressure him here? Investment Strategy looks the breeze horse and is 6 weeks between runs, Bar Plates on and 40-1. 1600m and 59.5kg stretches him, no doubt, but he’ll be a big price for an in form leader? KING HIT is amazingly looking for four on the bounce since the blinkers were applied. Just a different horse after the gear change. SOLDANELLE drops back 700m from a Pinjarra Cup and will settle last. Clear negatives but she’s savaging the line. Could have beaten Royal Toronado in the 72+ 1800 two back with even luck. ROCK N THE JAM is yet to get back to his 3 year old form but should be peaking here third-up. 

Numbers: 2 – 7 – 9 – 11

Suggested Bet – AVOIDANCE EACHWAY

RACE 6  

AHYEAHRIGHTO had one run in November in a 66+ 1000 and was $8.50 into $5.50 in a race that contained Jaz Session, Charino and Black Ora. First-up in the previous campaign this track/distance/grade he finished second to Amaroo Star (since won 3) and three starts later he won a 66+ 1200 beating Drakaina (now a Listed Jungle Mist winner). He’s a proven weight carrier and proven at this level. STORM AWAY is a highly talented 3 year old sprinter, but he will have to win this from near last. After breaking his maiden he went to a 3 year old Saturday over 1000m with shades applied for the first time and just travelled the winner from start to finish. He’ll be the best horse to come out of this race going forward, but the map looks tricky for him fresh? KINGS COURT was simply too quick for them on Good Friday and will look to burn across and lead again. SPICY THANG gets 1kg on him to try and turn the tables and from the draw might be able to land a pair closer too which helps. 

Numbers: 2 – 7 – 4 – 11      

Suggested Bet – AHYEAHRIGHTO EACHWAY

RACE 7

AURUM BELLE has been outstanding so far in three career wins. She has led and won at all three and stopped the clock 2.5L faster, 1.7L faster and 1L faster than average on each occasion in her 2yo SWP, Supremacy and Gimcrack wins. The Gimcrack and Perth Stakes are same day, same distance, same conditions and the fillies went 1:04:24 vs 1:05:32 for the colts and geldings. That’s ~6.5L faster and gives you the confidence that Aurum Belle (and Maria Lucia) can absorb the high speed and high pressure of a Karrakatta Plate and still be tough late. MARIA LUCIA was 7 weeks between runs from the Magic Millions to the Gimcrack Stakes and with the added fitness improvement as well as a set of blinkers for the first time there will be many tipping her to turn the tables. Hard to argue with the logic. BEATTY is 3 from 3 undefeated and looked to float in the Perth Stakes. Like the addition of blinkers for him too. SNOW MONKEY bypassed the Gimcrack to attack this on the fresh side. Trust the process.

Numbers: 7 – 8 – 1 – 13

Suggested Bet – AURUM BELLE WIN

RACE 8

JIGSAW drew 10/13 in the Sistema Railway in NZ and sat in the breeze to win (Group One 1200m SWP), drew 7/7 and crossed to lead and win under 61kg in the Gold Vobis Sprint (Quality Handicap 1200) and most recently drew 11/11 in the William Reid and crossed, led and won (Group One, 1200, WFA). He is looking to win a seventh straight race and the early sectional data suggests that he’s actually a massive chance of crossing to lead. If he gets to the top, he should be very hard to run down at Ascot. REY MAGNERIO comes through that same form reference race and was only 1.4L behind him. The Equicast goes back on (which was worn in his Gold Rush win) and he maps to get a lovely run forward of midfield with cover. Big threat. JEDIBEEL was cutting his way through traffic to flash late in the Galaxy (Group One, 1100 Handicap) and comes into the Quokka on the same 28 day spacing that seems to get the best out of him. CABALLUS is a last start Newmarket winner (Group One 1200 Handicap) and doesn’t need to lead to win. He may stalk Jigsaw’s every move.

Numbers: 1 – 3 – 5 – 2

Suggested Bet – JIGSAW WIN

Same Race Multi – Jigsaw (Top 3) + Rey Magnerio (Top 3)

Going to put my eggs in the William Reid basket in terms of form reference races and go with Jigsaw and Rey Magnerio to both finish in the money. Really with the likely prices come race day you could go even safer and make it both Top 4 and get a decent SRM price. Jigsaw looks to have the speed to cross and lead. Rey Magnerio was less than 1.5L behind him first-up and is proven at Ascot.

RACE 9

REPOSSESION is the class runner and the best suited under the WFA conditions of the Joey. He is a m97 rater and he’s coming through the Quokka lead-up races, having finished a narrow second to Oscar’s Fortune (beating home Cessation in the process) first-up in the Rock Magic Stakes and second-up finished fifth beaten 2L by Rope Them In, Smooth Chino, Oscars Fortune and Luana Miss. They all head to the Quokka, he drops back into a Joey and while he is yet to win at 1200, his two efforts so far have been beaten less than 1L in the Placid Ark and beaten 3.3L in the Winterbottom. Now is his chance. CESSATION couldn’t cross last week and was left a sitting duck for London’s Image to run down. If London’s Image was in this line-up she would be vying for favouritism. PETULA was much better last week and can sit back and wait for the race to unfold. Speed on suits her. KING ADVISO is a cog behind them on form but going really well.

Numbers: 3 – 12 – 11 – 5

Suggested Bet – REPOSSESSION WIN

RACE 10

HORCRUX sat parked on King Adviso two starts ago off a 6 week freshen and zapped him late in a race where they broke 1:09:00. Lost no admirers last start when cut down late by Sisu Warrior and the booking of Mark Zahra and the barrier/map look really attractive here. He can let Gi Gi Pops go and track up her every move. Looks like a right place, right time type set up for him. MALLETIER is Pike in the last on Quokka Day. The queues at the Tote and the Bookies’ ring will only be eclipsed by the roar of the crowd if he looms down the centre. Going from strength to strength in WA. GI GI POPS has blinkers reapplied and was back to her brilliant best fresh when she tried desperately hard to go with Thermosphere Lad late. WHEELY has really emerged out of nowhere very quickly. 1400 back to 1200 maybe a query? 

Numbers: 2 – 4 – 11 – 13

Suggested Bet – HORCRUX WIN

Quaddie (Race 7 – 10)

1,7,8

1,2,3,5

3,11,12

2,4

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