Races

Scott Embry’s Sunday Carnarvon Preview

Posted on | Posted by Scott Embry

Race 1

TANGO RHYTHM has her first start for new trainer Peter Daly and some of her better runs early in her career were actually over the shorter distances. 1100m maiden third behind Mardusa and Flash Dancer, 1230m maiden behind Lady Coco back in December also had plenty of merit and like the blinkers going on for her first-up assignment. MAGIC CARATS went frustratingly close to breaking through on numerous occasions on the grass last preparation and now tackles dirt racing for the first time in his life. There’s no doubting he’s the most talented horse in this line up, it’s just whether the 1000m brings him undone. Drawn off the track is a blessing for him and expect him to still take beating even though 1400 – 1600 is more his go. COSTA STAR has promised to win one all year (all her life!) but continues to find one or two better. PLACID ROM is quick and back to 1000m is the right move. Issue is – there’s no jockey for him.

Numbers: 8 – 1 – 7 – 5

Suggested Bet – TANGO RHYTHM WIN

Race 2

DAIYAMONDO is finally back into a C1. Three starts ago ran second to potential Horse of the Year in Only Us in a 54+ 1600, then ran second to Corn Cob (won his last two) in a 64+ 1600 and then last start raced in another 56+. Back into her right grade, 3kg claim for an in form Giaan O’Donnell and looks a winnable race for her. She’s found it hard to win (1/29) but this is a great opportunity in a very thin race. VIOLENT has more upside and far less convictions than many of her rivals but also doesn’t have a rider available, so may not get a run. HOT NOVA ran a cheeky race behind Swexan three back and the has raced over shorter distances since. Back in trip a plus. SWISHGOBANGO broke his maiden last start and realistically this race doesn’t run that much deeper.

Numbers: 1 – 5 – 10 – 3

Suggested Bet – DAIYAMONDO WIN

Race 3

TIFFS LAD led and won over 1700m at Belmont in a 0MWLY two starts ago under Giaan O’Donnell. Never looked like stopping that day before trying to replicate on a Heavy8 last time out. Got a stitch half way up the home straight but they did stop the clock 5L faster than average, the race has already produced Esta Mirando in victory and Our Mate Archie races in a 72+ at Belmont on Saturday whilst Tiff’s Lad heads North to join Aaron Pateman’s Carnarvon team. Could become a Cups Horse if he handles the dirt. YES I BELIEVE has burst onto the scene since arriving in the West and is getting through the kickback well. DREAM ILLUSION is racing like the step to 1600m will suit and Tash is on. CANDLEIGHT SHERIF would prefer if there was an extra 600m to run but he’s whacking away well.

Numbers: 1 – 6 – 2 – 3

Suggested Bet – TIFF’S LAD WIN

Race 4

MYSTERY MINUTE was back and wide last start in a forgive. He was the $2.80 favourite that day but never gave himself a chance. Prior two runs were sound, including a C3 win and love the booking of Tash Faithfull and the drop back to the short course (provided he steps). MARS MISSION is quickly closing in on 1000 days since last win – which is a huge concern – but his first two runs in Carnarvon were excellent. He ran third in a 64+ 1000 behind Simply Rosso and he ran second to highly talented stablemate and Minilya Sprint favourite Aardvark in a 64+ 1200. Last two – below par. SWEXAN is now 1400 back to 1200 back to 1000 but he races on speed and he absolutely bolted in last start. CHEEKY CHARLOTTE isn’t a 1400m horse. Right move to come here.

Numbers: 1 – 3 – 5 – 2

Suggested Bet – MYSTERY MINUTE WIN

Race 5

AARDVARK is taking all before him in Carnarvon. He showed a lot as a youngster, finishing third in the Debutant Stakes at Listed Level at Caulfield, winning the Listed Talindert at Flemington and running in a Group 2 VRC Sires and Group 2 Danehill Stakes and now he’s dominating on the dirt. He concedes 1.5kg to DEVILS I for a 2.1L margin and just don’t think that’s going to be enough of a weight swing to turn the tables. Yes he has 63.5kg, but he won two starts ago over 1200m with 63. The way he’s going he’ll be too fast for them (again). DEVILS I looms as the biggest threat with that weight swing and with Tash Faithfull going on. CORN COB is a chance if they overcook it and stop late. GOLD SPY gets some weight relief but will settle a fair way off them.

Numbers: 2 – 6 – 1 – 9

Suggested Bet – AARDVARK WIN

Race 6

WESTERN IMPACT was a heartbreaker last start. Looked to have the race at his mercy before Alma Mater kicked underneath him and worried him out of it. He’s peaking now, he holds form when he finds it and with Tash Faithfull on he’ll be very popular in the last. IRONCLAD BOY is through the same race and gets a 2kg weight swing on him for a very small margin. They’re drawn alongside each other, they’ll get similar runs to each other and there’s not much between the pair of them. SET THE SCENE is a 5x winner at Carnarvon and gets out to a far more suitable 1400m. Didn’t think his fresh run at an unsuitable 1000m was that bad and instead of going to the Minilya Sprint they come to a 56+. LORDGIVEMESTRENGTH a watch fresh at 1400m. Wide draw suits and Tara Atherden looks promising.

Numbers: 10 – 6 – 1 – 11

Suggested Bet – WESTERN IMPACT WIN

Quaddie (Race 3 – 6)

1,2,6

1,3,5

2,6

1,6,10,11

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