Races

Scott Embry’s Saturday Belmont Preview

Posted on | Posted by Scott Embry

Race 1

RIFLEMAN made an impression at trials and then ran really well against the pattern first-up at 1200m. The first 600m of that race was run 7.5L faster than average, so anything further back than first four in running was effectively sectionally impossible from that point onwards. Did a great job to pick up enough ground late to finish third and should be improved for the outing. DIGGERS SHOUT was a very cheap yearling purchase ($7500) and looks to have natural ability. Comes through clearly the fastest 2yo barrier trial of that set and looked strong late and through the line at the end of 1000m. Rare opportunity to back William Pike eachway and from a stable who can produce a juvenile. THEY’REALLSISTERS has barrier 16/16 to navigate but she’s got the premier race form to her name and a set of shades for the first time. LIFETIME DREAM has looked sharp and professional in his trials.

Numbers: 3 – 5 – 1 – 9       

Suggested Bet – RIFLEMAN WIN

Race 2

SURFSIDE SESSION has been a model of consistency throughout his career. He is the winner of 3 from 8 and is proven both at Westspeed Platinum level and on rain affected surfaces (Heavy8 winner last prep this track/distance). Regular rider Troy Turner jumps off to side up with last start winner Sesh which hurts but he’s trialled up well, maps to settle close handy in a race where they’ll turn on the speed and goes around at double figures. MAI ALOHA has a set of blinkers on for the first time in her career and looks the testing material. Strong win fresh at 1000m, narrowly defeated second-up after covering ground in a C5 1000 (on a Heavy8) and then tried to go toe to toe with Girls Day Out in a high rating race on the 3 day spin. Going super. SNIPERS SON is appreciating being ridden for pure speed. Different horse since the shades went on. WICKED VENOM trialled really well and gets it soft along the fence.

Numbers: 1 – 8 – 7 – 3          

Suggested Bet – SURFSIDE SESSION EACHWAY

Race 3

LADIES PRO vs WESTBOUND – a complete match race and one which will have many punters opposing each other. This race could justifiably jump $2 a piece, and then be $10+ the remainer. WESTBOUND has proven himself the superior stayer – the Boys went ~24.5L faster than the girls in the Aquanita vs Belmont Oaks, so if they turn it into a true staying test he’s the one, however, LADIES PRO clearly has the sharper turn of acceleration, so if they turn it into a sit and sprint then she should have him covered. Given it’s only a field of 7 and PONY UP looks the logical pacemaker happy to side with LADIES PRO to out sprint WESTBOUND. Tactical thriller, and expect that Pike will look to sit outside of CJP and keep him locked away for as long as possible. SPECIAL COUNSEL the logical third. PONY UP the logical fourth.

Numbers: 3 – 1 – 2 – 4      

Suggested Bet – LADIES PRO WIN    

Same Race Multi – Ladies Pro (Top 2) + Westbound (Top 2) + Special Counsel (Top 3)

Ladies Pro won the Belmont Oaks and is clearly the best of the fillies, Westbound won the Aquanita and is clearly the best of the boys. Special Counsel finished a distant second to Westbound and should be safely finishing third in behind the top two, so Ladies Pro – Westbound Quinella + Special Counsel to finish third.

Race 4

AUTO CRUISE is a really nice mare, and could well be destined to attack the Fillies & Mares Series at Ascot later in the year. Brilliant first-up winner at 1400m in a 66+ at Ascot and then obviously had a few set backs. Scratched 1st June, scratched 6th June and then not seen again for 2 months until resuming in a 72+ 1400m when flooding home behind key rival Olympic Park a fortnight ago. 1.5kg weight swing for a three quarter length margin gives her the chance to turn the tables. OUR MATE ARCHIE bolted in on a Heavy8 last start and the time out of the race was 5L faster than average. So far we’ve seen Esta Mirando and Here For Cheques run the quinella at Bunbury out of that form line and he gets 4kg of weight relief here. Seems to run for Brad Parnham too. OLYMPIC PARK won well last start and was great reward for patience, perseverance and rehabilitation. Barrier 1 could be ugly? SNIPPY WHICH continues to run well deep (deep) into a campaign.

Numbers: 8 – 10 – 7 – 1

Suggested Bet – AUTO CRUISE WIN

Race 5

WESTERN MISS is a highly progressive filly looking to complete a winning hattrick from maiden to C3 to 60+ Graduation. Gets in with 54.5kg and getting better with each and every run. Her maiden win was on a Soft7 so she’ll handle the conditions, her C3 win was over 1700m so she’s no worries at the distance and even though it’s not the usual racing pattern for the Cerise and White to lead in races, there’s no speed underneath her and she wants to roll forward. Leading or breezing she’s the one they have to run down. SHIMONOSEKI has won three from five since arriving in the West and is powering home with sustained runs late. She ran down Partay last start, but get the feeling Western Miss is a few lengths better than him. LINCHPIN drops out of an extremely high rating Aquanita Stakes. Great placement. TWO TIME CHARLIE is working his way through the grades nicely.   

Numbers: 14 – 8 – 4 – 3

Suggested Bet – WESTERN MISS WIN

RACE 6  

SUPERNATURAL ran well first-up behind Charino and Norich in a 72+ 1200. She’s got a barrier where CJP can bury her away midfield and enjoy a soft run and she’s a previous Heavy9 winner so regardless of how much rain we get throughout the week she’ll be fine. Any number of these could win, has to be $7/7.50 the field? BRAVE SPIRIT was super last start when wide and working in a 72+ 1400 behind Olympic Park and Auto Cruise who are likely to frank the form in Race 4. Drops back in grade, draws to get it soft and was a Listed winner on a Soft6 in his 3 year old days. Hasn’t won for an eternity but going well for the new yard. MT SHIRATAKU was woeful last start. Gets weight relief, gets Lucy back, entitled to one forgive. DAYTONA PETE has Shaun McGruddy riding 54.5kg and that might be a little bit of a push in itself. His two runs this prep have been excellent and he could lead this field.   

Numbers: 4 – 9 – 8 – 12  

Suggested Bet – SUPERNATURAL EACHWAY

RACE 7

WANT A WINNER trialled really well under William Pike at Belmont and then was accepted for the Beaufine last weekend. If the stable thought he belonged in that Listed Feature (90+ handicap) as a m77 rater then you’d be disappointed if he wasn’t coming out and going really close first-up in a 72+ 1200 the week later. He’s drawn to enjoy the stalking run tracking up behind high-speed leaders Norich and Girls Day Out and from there he should be pouncing. Well above average, hopefully still improving with maturity and just looks mapped to win. ATLANTIC SPIRIT took a while to find her feet in the State but she’s now showing the same turn of foot that saw her go to a Group 3 at Morphetville earlier in her career. Flying. THE CALABRESE will be switched off early and goes better the colder you ride him. GIRLS DAY OUT takes a big step from Westspeed Platinum to 72+.  

Numbers: 9 – 10 – 8 – 12  

Suggested Bet – WANT A WINNER WIN

RACE 8  

BOOKENDS went from a maiden to a C1 and now into a 60+ Graduation. Blinkers have certainly sharpened her up and these are the kinds of race that the 3 year olds tend to dominate in. She gets in with 54.5kg (dropping 5kg start to start), she’ll blend in midfield with cover and she’ll present at the right time. Eachway the field kind of race (again). DEEL HER IN has the wide gate and 59kg, but this is the lowest grade of race she has seen since breaking her maiden. She’s a Listed winner in a 60+ Graduation, she’s trialled up well for her return and first-up last campaign she finished less than 2.5L off them in a 72+ 1200 and second-up less than 2L off Playin’ It Sweet in a 66+ 1200. Great placement. CHAMPAGNE CRUSADER was under-rated last preparation and will get under the guard here again. Proven in the wet and if she reproduces her slashing Pinjarra Magic Millions run which saw her run 2L to Twisted Steel she’s capable of winning this. IN CONFIDENCE ran well off a long spell and should only improve.

Numbers: 16 – 1 – 4 – 13  

Suggested Bet – BOOKENDS EACHWAY

Quaddie (Race 5 – 8)

8,14

3,4,5,6,7,8,9,11,12

9

1,5,8,9,12,13,16

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