Races

Scott Embry’s Saturday Ascot Preview

Posted on | Posted by Scott Embry

RACE 1

A LOT OF GOOD MEN was well thought of in the Initial Plate behind Brave Halo and Live To Tell when finishing third (beating home Shell Bell). Was later found to be shin sore and headed straight to the paddock. Has had a 950m trial to prepare him for his return and the half-brother to Bustler looks like he’s come back in excellent order. Was doing his best late and through the line at Lark Hill and provided he finds a spot from a tricky alley he looks hard to beat at his return. FLINDERS LANE comes through that same trial. She looks speedy and can zip across to find a position over the speed. Kept coming underneath A Lot Of Good Men once headed at trials. GUARDING HEAVEN ran an impressive second to undefeated colt Brave Halo on debut. BIG PLAYER trialled over 400m on Monday and heads straight to the races.

Numbers: 2 – 7 – 5 – 3

Suggested Bet – A LOT OF GOOD MEN WIN

RACE 2

MIA GUSTO was able to burst through for an impressive win at her return to racing over 1100m. Comes back to 1000m and strikes a pretty sharp (and open) little line-up of 3 year old sprinters. Could make a case for all 7 runners but she should only improve off what she produced fresh and should enjoy a similar run parked in behind the speed. Looks an above average filly with a future. GODDESS OF GIVING went toa 66+ last start and wasn’t disgraced behind the older horses. Back to 1000m for her as well but she’ll park and ride the speed from the favourable draw. TRESPASSING is still a maiden but did a mountain of work first-up off only a 400m jump out. WORK IN PROGRESS has been beating up on midweek types and faces her toughest test to date. Hard to ignore her dominant win last start.

Numbers: 3 – 2 – 6 – 7

Suggested Bet – MIA GUSTO WIN

RACE 3

DESERT VIXEN maps to get a near identical run in transit to what she enjoyed last start when shooting through to victory (apart from the obvious lack of cutaway rail!). She has the tactical speed to sit in behind a genuine speed through On The Full, Born To Talk and potentially Gates of Babylon and from there she’ll be poised and ready to strike. If she sees daylight, she has a short sharp turn of foot suited to racing from the box seat. ON THE FULL found the front easily last start and then looked to completely switch off when given a mid-race breather. Being forgiving with him (for now). BORN TO TALK comes through a fast run 1200 last week where he was chopped out late in the race. CABLE BOY has a tough gate but was a big winner at Albany with weight last start.

Numbers: 4 – 6 – 3 – 7

Suggested Bet – DESERT VIXEN WIN

RACE 4

TIME SCALE should get things her own way out in front in this 66+ 1400. She’s a proven 7 furlong mare (winner of 2 from 5), she’s capable of carrying weight (winner with 59kg at 1400m) and she finds a race without much pressure. Last start she was forced to roll along  throughout with Cheval De Vaga parked outside of her. In this event Holly Watson should be able to get a mid-race breather and then roll into the corner. Should give a big sight in front. CATEGORY THREE was gifted the race last start. Sat in the box seat in a race run 6.5L slower than 60+ Graduation average and was able to burst through on straightening. This is tougher but she’s clearly progressive. HARDLY EVER went to a mile last start and raced a bit flat. Back to 1400m a bonus. MINUS LOOKS was able to sit on the back of Corn Cob and zap him last start at Geraldton. Form measures up.

Numbers: 1 – 6 – 2 – 4

Suggested Bet – TIME SCALE EACHWAY

RACE 5

MOI CHOUX was huge last start. Over-raced in the early and middle stages when unable to be settled by Jess Valenti and then was only 1L off Premium Choice and Bitofmerit in the finish. Regains the services of Brad Rawiller who has ridden him to both victories in WA and gets a 2kg weight swing on Premium Choice. Goes round eachway more often than not and hasn’t run a bad race in the State. CAPITAL FLIGHT had to sit half a length in front in the breeze last start; one of the most awkward positions in racing. In a race lacking any real speed he should get things comfortably in front and takes running down. PREMIUM CHOICE was back to his brilliant best last start. Likely sits out the back. HALATORION is dangerous if he reproduces his blistering win of two starts ago.

Numbers: 2 – 3 – 4 – 7

Suggested Bet – MOI CHOUX EACHWAY

RACE 6

KERMAN ROCK and VEVINSKY do battle again at 2100m. There is a 3kg weight swing in favour of VEVINSKY for a 1L margin and the engagement of Paul Harvey. Drawn one barrier inside of Kerman Rock may just give him an opportunity to come out underneath him and work his way forward to settle closer to him in the run and thinking that might just be enough to turn the tables in a war of attrition. KERMAN ROCK is winning his races between the 1200 and the 600 when simply running rivals into the ground. Last start the first 1200m was run 14.5L faster than average and the L600 run 9.5L slower than average. He’s running them off their legs. ROCH LEGACY is brilliantly placed back into a Graduation. SOVIET SPY is a genuine stayer who will keep coming.

Numbers: 2 – 3 – 4 – 5

Suggested Bet – VEVINSKY WIN

RACE 7

TADWEER was $9 into $3.60 last start when travelling the winner throughout before being grabbed in the shadows by My Dilemma. Drops from a 66+ back into a 60+ Graduation and drops from 1200m back to 1000m. There is a distinct lack of exposed speed in this race and Brandon Louis should work his way across to the breeze. From there he takes real beating. CLASSIC MAGNUS can sit leader’s back and her run from a horror barrier in the Fitzpatrick Plate was a ripper. Came to town in December and put on a galloping exhibition. Don’t discount. THE LADY IS A VAMP is throwing races away with poor manners. She’s low flying. HONEY DEW trialled like a mare who would be hard to beat fresh.

Numbers: 2 – 1 – 8 – 9

Suggested Bet – TADWEER WIN

RACE 8 

THE VELVET QUEEN was unable to reel in prolific winner and high-class mare Alsephina on New Year’s Day at Ascot in the Group 3 La Trice Classic at 1800m. In defeat she ran the fastest L1200, 1000, 800, 600, 400 & 200 of the race and clocked the fastest L200 of the entire meeting. She sneak in perfectly on the 54kg limit and provided she sees daylight at some stage in the straight she’ll take serious holding out. BUZZOOM has a big rider change. William Pike taking over from an apprentice who couldn’t claim in the last feature event. Drawn a gate to get cover and can bounce back. BIG SCREEN rolls along out in front and gives a kick. THE SPRUIKER is peaking.

Numbers: 10 – 4 – 7 – 5

Suggested Bet – THE VELVET QUEEN WIN

RACE 9

KNOT SECRET has come back well. Big win two starts ago down the centre of the track and then was beaten by the barrier most recently when settling at the rear and having to make a wide searching run on the wrong part of the track. Better drawn, better map and goes round eachway. SENTIMENTAL HERO put the writing on the wall first-up when bursting through late behind The Velvet Queen and Casino Seventeen. Dominant win last start when given a 12/10 by CJP. 3kg claiming apprentice on a backmarking type from an awkward gate. Not the easiest steer. WEAPONSON is bursting to win a race. Pike riding for Danny Morton is something we haven’t seen for a few years. Catches the attention. MY BOY EDDY is going better than numerical form suggests.

Numbers: 9 – 5 – 8 – 13

Suggested Bet – KNOT SECRET EACHWAY

Quaddie (Race 6 – 9)

2,3,4

1,2,8,9,10

4,7,10

1,2,4,5,8,9,10,13

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