Races

Chris Nelson’s Saturday Doomben Preview

Posted on | Posted by Chris Nelson

RACE 1

With the Winter Carnival done & dusted for another year we’re back to Doomben on what should be a good rated surface for a very competitive 9 race meeting. I’m going very wide in this opening race putting (8) HIDE THE PIERATA on top at big odds. She finished very strongly on debut to win at Toowoomba over 1050m, back to 1000m at her next run she again closed strongly at the Sunshine Coast however clearly needed further. Thrown in the deep end in a Listed race last start she was clearly outclassed however back to this level she can bounce back. (2) APEX PREDATOR won well on debut & I doubt the additional trip will be of any concern. (3) BULL RAYNOR & (1) HIGH AUTHORITY certainly in the mix also.

Numbers: 8 – 2 – 3 – 1

Suggested Bet: HIDE THE PIERATA EACH-WAY.

RACE 2

(4) AUTOMNE TREE failed first up however the track was a heavy (10) & the race was run under atrocious conditions with plenty of heavy rain falling & barely any daylight. He quickly bounced back second-up finishing full of running wide out here to round up the leader, the rise in distance should be suitable based on that & the race doesn’t contain a lot of depth. (11) DIAMOND SHOW hasn’t been far away of late & with the claim doesn’t appear badly placed, the wide gate isn’t great though. (8) DRACENA a possible improver, she showed plenty last prep however looked in need of the run fresh, her trial prior was pretty average, keen to see what she does here.

Numbers: 4 – 11 – 8 – 15

Suggested Bet: AUTOMNE TREE TO WIN.

RACE 3

Leaning to the consistent (9) CAPTAIN MAVERICK however I wouldn’t be having my last on him as his strike rate isn’t one to get enthused about having won only 2 of his 27 starts! On the positive side though he has placed on a further 14 occasions & his recent form suggests a win could be close, the freshen & drop back in distance should be favourable. (3) CAVALRY MAN deserved the win two back after having zero luck the start prior, forgive the latest when wide in the Ipswich Cup, he’s got his fair share of weight to lump here. (1) PRINCE LEVI maps to settle nice & close & with him that’s a big positive.

Numbers: 9 – 3 – 1 – 11

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 4

Leading trainer Tony Gollan sends around a couple of in form runners here in (1) DAGGERS & (15) ADDITION. I’m with the latter who was a strong finishing winner here two back before off to Ipswich on their Cup Day when running into third spot late in a race not run to suit with the first two out being the first two home. Good gate & no weight she gets 6.5kg off her stablemate (1) DAGGERS who also has to deal with a wide draw & 1600m for the second time (out of the placings only other attempt). (14) NATOYA joins the in-form Sears camp & will find this easier than recent efforts down south, betting our best guide.

Numbers: 15 – 1 – 14 – 12

Suggested Bet: ADDITION EACH-WAY.

RACE 5

I’m not surprised to see good early market support around for the rails drawn (4) LET’SFACETHEMUSIC who maps to settle behind what could be a very solid speed with a number of on paced types in the race. He’s had quite a consistent prep & his close-up effort in the Listed Lightning last start is more than good enough for this. (1) BRAVEHEART is one of those horses you’d love to own, honest as they come & always seems to land a cheque, just won’t want to get involved in any speed duals here as he will be vulnerable late. Awkward gate for (3) LARADO however ridden cold he may well be able to finish over the top of the lot of them, I wouldn’t be surprised if he did.

Numbers: 4 – 1 – 3 – 8

Suggested Bet: Box up top 3 selections in exotics.

RACE 6

With PEREILLE a scratching I’m with the consistent stablemate (5) BOSSED UP who improved nicely second up when beating all bar the winner at Eagle Farm. A winner at the same stage of his last prep as he is today, he’s a winner on this track & twice over the distance. An in-form Ryan Maloney will have him launching once they hit the straight. (4) TIGER TIE is quick & suited around here whilst another Gollan trained runner (11) ZOUBABY should improve second-up, include in the placings. (3) PRE EMINENCE is good enough to win this should he rediscover some of his better form.

Numbers: 5 – 4 – 11 – 3

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 7

He can be a handful (1) LARRIKIN ROGUE however I’m going to give him another chance here & hopefully he will repay my faith. Firstly, he could start by leaving the gates well, the last time I did tip him he missed it by 8 lengths, I swore never again & yet here we are again! Well in with the claim he’s been freshened up & won a recent trial, fingers crossed! (5) HELLOVA NATURE is in very consistent form, Midway win behind a promising type last start is good enough to measure up here. (10) TRAFALGAR SQUARE & (9) HEADHUNTER in the mix also.

Numbers: 1 – 5 – 10 – 9

Suggested Bet: LARRIKIN ROGUE EACH-WAY.

RACE 8

(10) CRASH THE PARTY broke through for a well overdue win last start when back to maiden grade. Sent around at the prohibitive odds of $1.16 she proved too strong late as she should have. She’s run some cracking races over time against stronger opposition without winning & gets in nice & light with 53kg. (3) SMEXY draws well & the claim helps, another to get in light & she has the ability however hasn’t quite shown it this prep, don’t underestimate. (1) NAVY PILOT & (2) CALL DA VINCI in the mix whilst (16) ROUGH CAUSE is far from out of it, very lightly raced on trial out to the trip.

Numbers: 8 – 5 – 19 – 2

Suggested Bet: CRASH THE PARTY EACH-WAY (small bet).

RACE 9

Difficult looking race to wind up the day. I’ll lean to (2) HATCHET who holds a good record here having won 7 of his 15 here over this trip placed on a further 4 occasions. (1) PEREILLE was scratched out of an earlier race today where he looked a good thing at the weights, have to respect the stable as they know what they are doing & he will find this easier than recent runs. (9) TOWN CRIER is racing in very consistent fashion, must be included.

Numbers: 2 – 1 – 9 – 3

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

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