Races

Chris Nelson’s Saturday Randwick Preview

Posted on | Posted by Chris Nelson

RACE 1

We’re racing at Randwick on Saturday where the going is likely to be in the heavy range following some decent rainfall during the week, we may get to soft however I’m not overly confident. The meeting gets underway with a 1400m 2yo where I’m siding with the only Chris Waller trained runner in the race (3) DEFENSEMEN who although yet to win at his 4 starts to date, he’s been in the placings twice & hit the line strongly first up on a soft (6) over 1250m, should appreciate 150m further today. (2) RUMDABAR was a forgivable last on debut here before off to Newcastle when winning well on heavy ground. Keeping the debutante (9) PROXIMA DEA safe, bred to get further however 1400m is a good starting point.

Numbers: 3 – 2 – 4 – 9

Suggested Bet: DEFENSEMEN TO WIN (Small bet).

RACE 2

Keen on the chances of (1) MOON SWEEPER repeating his winning Rosehill effort late in May here. Stays at the same class, again gets a wet track (2 of 3 wins on heavy) & with the claim will carry 1.5kg less weight! Hard not to like, plenty of boxes ticked. (2) CONCOCTION could be a query in the ground, certainly racing well enough to rate a danger should he get through it ok; another well placed with a claim. (3) RELEASE POINT rises in weight however was good at Rosehill last start & although yet to see heavy has placed 5 of 7 on soft.

Numbers: 1 – 2 – 3 – 10

Suggested Bet: MOON SWEEPER TO WIN.

RACE 3

Beaten favourite his past 2 starts (3) PERFECT JUSTICE is become a costly conveyance, his winning strike rate of only 10% shouldn’t endear him to punters however he again looks very well placed in this race, suggest on an each-way basis though. (5) FORECASTER is racing very consistently at this level, likely better placed on a drying track though. Include (10) ALL STAR who has put together a couple of decent provincial wins his past couple & being a lightly raced 3yo has upside.

Numbers: 3 – 5 – 10 – 4

Suggested Bet: PERFECT JUSTICE EACH-WAY.

RACE 4

Low numbers in this race where I’m with the very consistent (1) BENEVAC who is busting to win this prep having placed at all three runs. Drawn to race on speed once again he stays at the same level however drops a kilo for the narrow last start defeat. Wet track record is good, in fact at this stage he seems to prefer wet over dry. (7) JARRITO looked very good winning midweek first up, not far away in the same race as the top tip last start, he likely has plenty of improvement to come. No knock (4) ZOUFAME who won well when resuming & this will be the first time in three starts he’s not running first up.

Numbers: 1 – 7 – 4 – 5

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 5

(3) TAMBELOA doesn’t have the best winning strike rate (1 from 13) however he looks well enough placed here to rate a chance of improving on that stat. Strong to the line over 1600m last start he’ll appreciate the additional 200m & although this is a tougher task he drops 4.5kg & his wet track record is a good one. (9) HORIZONS will be right at her peak fourth run back from a break, she’ll roll forward once again & seems to get through all conditions ok. (5) ALL KINDS OF FOLK looks close, include.

Numbers: 3 – 9 – 5 – 1

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 6

Happy to be with the consistent mare (3) PETTICOAT who looks very close to breaking through this campaign. Excuses second up she bounced back with a second behind the very smart & promising Ice Kool here last start & from the gate will likely lead or be very close to it. Rising only a kilo on that run she handles all types of going. (4) PRIMA BELLA holds an enviable strike rate & without doubt should have finished closer last start with clearer running, her heavy track record is very good, the wetter the better for her. Can’t knock the form of the Victorian visitor (2) LUNA CAT winning her latest by a good margin on soft (7) ground.

Numbers: 3 – 4 – 2 – 1

Suggested Bet: PETTICOAT TO WIN (small bet).

RACE 7

Very open race over the 1800m. Thought (10) LUSKAIRE looked well placed off a couple of recent second placed finishes with the latest coming in Saturday company albeit in lower grade. He drops plenty in weight to offset that though & ticks the distance box, wet ground seems to be no issue either having won 2 of 4 on heavy surfaces. Without doubt the imported galloper (9) BONIFACE is a real threat, fitter for the latest run he stays at the same trip & holds a very good soft track record back home (yet to see heavy), the wide gate suggests he’s going to give away a decent start, that’s my concern. Certainly no knock (4) TAZIMA who is shooting for the hat-trick.

Numbers: 10 – 9 – 4 – 11

Suggested Bet: LUSKAIRE EACH-WAY.

RACE 8

Going with the very consistent (3) COLD BREW who’s only defeat within his past 5 starts came two back when resuming at Rosehill. A drifter in the market suggested he may have been in need of the run however he was beaten less than a length with 59kg, it certainly wasn’t a poor effort. Strong winning last time he’s up in grade & weight which is never ideal however he looks well up to the challenge. (8) SEVEN’S is unbeaten on heavy ground, clearly a wet tracker he’s struggled on dry surfaces, wetter the better for him. (11) CONCORDIA WIND shows promise & is certainly in the right yard to realise it.

Numbers: 3 – 8 – 11 – 4

Suggested Bet: COLD BREW EACH-WAY.

RACE 9

(2) LUGH does appear very well placed second up & is the clear top tip. A winner at 5 of his 10 starts to date (covering all track conditions) he resumed with solid effort at Randwick in a stronger race. Unbeaten second-up he will find this an easier task & will carry only a kilo more after the Siena Grima claim. (9) EMIRATE has really turned the corner of late, can’t say I saw him winning two straight however here he is reliving his early 2yo days, can’t overlook. (13) NARBOLD had excuses last start, placed all 3 starts prior he’s a very capable wet tracker & can bounce back to his previous consistent form.

Numbers: 2 – 9 – 13 – 14

Suggested Bet: LUGH TO WIN.

RACE 10

(3) AYE AYE CAPTAIN looks well placed in this final race. Drawn the pole Kerrin McEvoy will have her in a prominent position & she does tend to find the line strongly. Yet to race on heavy ground however her soft track record is a good one. (2) SWIFTIE HARRIET will race up on speed, the wide rail should suit her here however she has been vulnerable late in her recent races, should the top tip be close enough at the 200m I’d be surprised if she didn’t run her down. (4) BELLA COROZON a major chance also, does rise in weight however in very consistent form this prep.

Numbers: 3 – 2 – 4 – 10

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

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