Races

Scott Embry’s Friday Carnarvon Preview

Posted on | Posted by Scott Embry

RACE 1

SWISHGOBANGO should park up over the top of the speed and prove hard to get past. He’s now fourth-up, out to a mile and his last two efforts for Rocky Cheung on the dirt at Carnarvon have been solid minors behind River Beauty (beating home key rival The Sessione) and behind Dashing Diva and Als Gal. Ready to win. COSTA STAR is now a 25 start maiden and has rarely ventured past 1400m across her career but she was a $6.50 chance in the same race as Swishgobango last time out. THE SESSIONE should have the speed to hold up in front and that keeps him out of trouble. ALL KINGS didn’t want to be there last start. Difficult to load and then never in the contest. Prior runs all solid.

Numbers: 1 – 7 – 4 – 2

Suggested Bet – SWISHGOBANGO WIN

RACE 2

HELLS CITI is a City Place (US Stallion whose stock all thrive on dirt racing) so it was actually no surprise to see him run a cheeky race first-up at 50-1, but winning by a 5L margin – that was a surprise. He went to 1200m second-up and as solid behind Lady Cabernet and Calathinite and now 40 days later he’s back to the short course and Tash Faithfull jumps on. Must step because if not barrier 1 is a huge obstacle but looking at the map he’s a sniff of holding up and if he does, it’s game on. FIGHTING THUNDER has been clear career best at his last two and looks the logical danger. BLATANT VIOLATION is a rare runner for Peter Dellar, in fact, by my records he hasn’t saddled one up in over 8 years! (September 2017 on my database?). Won a recent back straight trial by over 1L in decent time too. Watch. HILLSIDE MONARCH is quickly finding his dirt feet.

Numbers: 2 – 1 – 3 – 4

Suggested Bet – HELLS CITI WIN

RACE 3

AARDVARK has been a revelation on the dirt for new trainer Aaron Pateman and the way he romped home to a 5L win last start (in a time nearly 8L faster than average) makes him the one to beat. Back to 1000m may be the only query? BUSY FINGERS has won back to back races on the grass for Adam Durrant and in style too. The maiden win was soft at $1.70 and the second-up win in a C1 was even better when rising 2kg and putting on a clinic down the centre to win by an extending 1.3L margin. First time on the dirt is the unknown but you’d rather be drawn wide at your first outing on the surface. Joey Azzopardi heading to Carnarvon on a Friday also catches the attention. DEVILS I won well last start but strikes a deep 64+. BUSTERS GIRL is quick and should be making them chase early.

Numbers: 1 – 6 – 7 – 8

Suggested Bet – AARDVARK WIN

RACE 4

WESTERN IMPACT should be peaking sixth-up into the campaign. Last season he won third-up in a C3 1400 (this track, distance, grade) with 56kg and then two starts later he won again in another C3 1400. Has taken him a while to build this prep but his last start behind Lets Sea and Yes I Believe was good enough to win a race of this nature. Rockets up 6kg in the weights with Alex Hearn on for a 3kg claimer but he’s getting close and this race isn’t very deep. CHEEKY CHARLOTTE is the best credentialled horse in the race but do query whether she’ll run out a strong 1400? TASSORT WE WANT heads back down from Port Hedland and was a forgive last start. KUNAPIPI should find her way to the top here which is a big help.

Numbers: 8 – 1 – 4 – 11

Suggested Bet – WESTERN IMPACT EACHWAY

RACE 5

CASINO ROYALE is no star but this race has a lot of queries (few yet to be proven on the dirt, couple a query back in distance) so it’s the kind of race where he could step from a C1 into a 56+ and run well. Natika Riordan has only taken 7 rides in Carnarvon this season for 3 winners at 43% SR and 97% POT. She’s very good. SWEXAN led and won a C1 1400 three back, led and faded into third in a C3 1400 two back and then last start did it a bit tough before fading out of contention late to be beaten nearly 5L behind Lets Sea. Blinkers off for the first time in WA and back in distance to 1200m. LIMAHULI didn’t get into the race at his WA debut. Expecting him to take plenty from the run. PLAYING QUEST is definitely more of a 1400m horse than he is a 1200m horse but he can park wide and keep coming with a sustained run.

Numbers: 5 – 9 – 3 – 4

Suggested Bet – CASINO ROYALE EACHWAY

RACE 6

ONLY US is just a different horse on the dirt. He arrived in the region as a 33 start C1 galloper but the punters knew ($26 into $7.50) and since then he’s gone from a C1 to winning back to back 56+ races. Again stays in the same grade and carries the same weight as last start with the addition of a few natural top weights to calculations. The way he’s going it doesn’t seem to worry him if they go fast or they go slow, he’s just a track specialist. LETS SEA got out to a ridiculous price last start for a proven dirt animal who had been racing well on the grass earlier in his preparation. He can go back to back without surprising. RED REBEL looks to be coming to hand nice and quickly and has dropped 13 points in 12 months. MANAVENDRA is the class runner but 65kg is a leveller.

Numbers: 5 – 4 – 3 – 1

Suggested Bet – ONLY US WIN

Quaddie (Race 3 – 6)

1,6

1,4,8

2,3,4,5,6,7,9

4,5

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