Races

Scott Embry’s Saturday Belmont Preview

Posted on | Posted by Scott Embry

RACE 1 

MORNING THUNDER was produced first-up, no trial at Belmont and sent out an easing $1.80 favourite when toppled by Farnova on what turned into an absolute hot rails/fence meeting. He may have needed the run, he may not have enjoyed the Heavy8 and he was a few lanes away from the ‘fast going’. Enough excuses to forgive him and without Pike he’ll be eachway – that’s a bet. ROCKIN’ SERENITY looked really comfortable on the Heavy8 track on debut and marched past her rivals to score an impressive mid-week victory. Heads straight into Saturday company and importantly William Pike sticks with her over key rival Morning Thunder who he rode last start. If she can find a spot from a tricky draw she’ll be hard to hold out late. FARNOVA and HEAVENLY PARADISE will both need to burn across from wide draws.

Numbers: 1 – 7 – 2 – 8

Suggested Bet – MORNING THUNDER EACHWAY

RACE 2

TALKAWAY won a C3 1400 three back, then finished 2L off Territory Man in a key form reference race that Secret Identity also comes through, and then last week was only fair (at best) behind Conducive in another Grad 1300. Backs up off 7 days (previous winner off the 6 day spin) and draws to get a lovely run close handy just a cog back in grade into a thin Westspeed Platinum. She can bounce back to form without surprising. GINGER GREEN is rising 9 years old and typicall takes a run or two to reach peak fitness but he’s the class runner and has run 4x 66+ and 72+ placings in the last 12 months whilst also dropping 8 ratings points. Can win and will be nearly double figures. SECRET IDENTITY hasn’t done a lot of racing recently but is a consistent type in and around this grade. OUR ROCKY BAY has found the first race of the preparation where he could lead if they wanted too.

Numbers: 8 – 1 – 10 – 3

Suggested Bet – TALKAWAY EACHWAY

RACE 3

DEEP LYRIC was thrown in the deep end on debut straight into a Saturday event (off only a 400m jump out) and went within a nose of victory, and that’s after encountering some considerable traffic on straightening. Once she got clear she savaged the line and kept in clear galloping room here she should prove very hard to hold out late. COMMON TOUCH started this preparation as a 7-start maiden but since they’ve ridden him for speed, he’s just been a different animal. Led and won to break his maiden, stopping the clock 4.4L faster than average, led and won his C1 and stopped the clock a staggering 6L faster than average. This is a decent step up from a C1 to a 3 year old Saturday but it looks like they’ll leave him alone in front and that’s daunting. DELTASON might be looking for 1400m but will be winding up late. ELITE BEAU trialled super but hasn’t fired a shot at the races (yet).

Numbers: 10 – 6 – 1 – 7

Suggested Bet – DEEP LYRIC WIN

RACE 4

LAST STYLEBENDER won well from the front of the field first-up and second-up before breezing in a 66+ and being beaten 1.7L and most recently was definitely disappointing when fading out to be beaten 3L after leading, however, the fence wasn’t exactly the place to be that day and hopefully with a set of shades on first time, he can bounce back to his best. Think he’ll cross and from there he’s an eachway chance in what looks an open and tricky contest. BRAZEN BUTCHER toyed with C1 rivals fresh and then locked his jaw second-up and continually lay outwards under Lucy Fiore. Pike back on, cross over nose band on and can box seat on a free rolling leader. Ticks all round. ETERNAL WINE will need to find a back to follow to offset the awkward draw. EMPRESS OF INDIA is rarely far from them in this grade.

Numbers: 3 – 7 – 9 – 2

Suggested Bet – LAST STYLEBENDER EACHWAY

RACE 5

KISSES FROM KELLY was simply too tough for rivals on the bottomless Heavy8 last start and comfortably held the favourite Antique Queen in the run to the post. His previous run in a 66+ 2200 on a Good4 was an encouraging effort behind Startling Star and typically once he finds form, he holds form. ZJP is riding him with confidence and he should be able to slide forward to either lead and breeze again. From there, why can’t he win again? CITINO was held up for the majority of the straight last time out and looked to have plenty to offer. The fact Michael Grantham calls on the services of William Pike says he’s ready to win. FIRST ENCOUNTER is well placed from a Listed event back into a 66+ and is another great opportunity afforded to Cass Martinan. SAVVY RULER will appreciate being back onto a drying track and gets down to 52.5kg after the claim.

Numbers: 1 – 3 – 2 – 14

Suggested Bet – KISSES FROM KELLY EACHWAY

RACE 6

MAGIC SEQUENCE is a quality little mare who worked her way through the grades impressively last campaign. Jason Miller takes a patient approach with his horses and follows the natural progression of the programming: maiden – C1 – C3 (x2) – Westspeed Platinum and now first-up this campaign she faces her toughest test to date, a 66+. Loved her recent barrier trial, love the map she’s afforded and love the way she accelerates when saved up for a late run. Think there’s more in store for her. ZOURUN RUN is a sharp filly who will enjoy the run of the race tracking King Adviso and be the first to attack him on straightening. KING ADVISO is well placed by Team Gangemi and in theory should be an ideal apprentice’s horse? Just let him run. HEDAWOOD has been in form all prep.

Numbers: 8 – 9 – 2 – 10

Suggested Bet – MAGICAL SEQUENCE WIN

RACE 7

REPOSSESSION finished second to Oscars Fortune first-up last campaign beaten a head at SWP and now meets him 4.5kg better at the weights. Second-p he went to the Roma Cup and third-up to the Joey, both at WFA. He’s far better suited under handicap conditions, he clearly prefers Belmont to Ascot and he maps to get a lovely run forward of midfield with cover. This looks a winnable contest for him and typically with the horse fresh is best. MADHI GIRL and JAZ SESSION went head to head on multiple occasions through the Summer Scorcher, Miss Andretti and Scenic Blast Stakes and there was little between them. They’re both m90 rated mares who are perfectly in on the 54kg limit and each map to get the runs they require to win. TWISTED STEEL is a highly progressive 3 year old but where on earth does he get from the horrible draw?

Numbers: 5 – 13 – 11 – 16

Suggested Bet – REPOSSESSION EACHWAY

Same Race Multi – Repossession (Top 4) + Madhi Girl (Top 4)

Full field of 16 to do battle in the Beaufine and it’ll be ~$5.50 the field. Repossession is 2/2 undefeated at the Belmont 1000, goes well fresh and gets massive weight swings on Oscar’s Fortune for their Autumn Carnival encounters. Madhi Girl draws low, gets it soft and has an electric turn of foot.

RACE 8

REMINISCENCE had to come out at right angles first-up to bully his way into clear galloping room and win before safely accounting for moderate C1 opposition in a slowly run race second-up under 60kg. Get the impression like many of Grant & Alana’s 3 year olds that he will continue to improve into the preparation and as he takes on better quality opposition with a more genuine tempo. Could well find himself lobbing 1×1 again and if that’s the case then he’ll be hard to beat. DIAMONDS’N’RUBIES should cross these with within a matter of strides and get things really cheaply in front. She’s returned in excellent order and gives plenty of cheek. MOONWALK was 2100 back to 1400 last start and showed a good turn of foot to burst through gaps. TRIPLE THE CHANT was wildly good first-up, but likely ends up back and wide in a moderately run race. Will need to be good from there.

Numbers: 10 – 9 – 6 – 5

Suggested Bet – REMINISCENCE WIN

Quaddie (Race 5 – 8)

1,2,3,8,14

2,8,9

5,11,12,13,16

5,6,9,10

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