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Robbie Von’s F1 Preview – Canadian Grand Prix

Posted on | Posted by Robbie Von

KIMI – IS ANYONE GOING TO STOP THIS KID?

F1 is finally back with a bit of consistency!

After the chaos of Miami and two cancelled Middle East rounds that drained the season’s momentum, the circus rolls into one of the most iconic venues on the calendar. The Circuit Gilles Villeneuve in Montreal. Beautiful city, brilliant track, and historically one of the best races of the year.

Before we get into Canada, let’s catch up on where this wild season actually sits.

THE SEASON SO FAR

Going into 2026, we all figured this was George Russell’s year. Mercedes looked the goods, George had come of age as a number one driver, and the narrative was written – George’s time. BUT nobody told Kimi Antonelli.

The 19-year-old Italian has been EXTRAORDINARY. Four races in, Mercedes have won the lot. Kimi taking three of them, George grabbing one of his own. Antonelli sits on 100 championship points, the youngest driver in history to lead the World Championship. Twenty points clear of his own teammate. I’m just going to let that sink in for a second. The kid is for real.

George Russell is still right there in second. Consistent and strong. But his Mercedes garage mate is just better right now. You never would have predicted this at the start of the season.

The other big story is the cars design overhaul. These 2026 machines with the new electric power deployment systems are the stuff of nightmares for most drivers. Max Verstappen has been especially vocal, calling the new tech a “joke.” Coming from a four-time world champion, that carries weight. Though it’s worth noting that Verstappen’s loudest complaints have coincided with Red Bull’s worst results. Make of that what you will *wink, wink, nudge, nudge*!

McLaren. UNSTOPPABLE last year and defending champions. They only really fired their first proper shot in Miami, where Norris and Piastri went 2nd and 3rd. Before that? DNFs, mechanical gremlins, the papaya boys barely making the start line. Miami suggests the car is coming good. Canada could be very interesting.

That’s the season in a nutshell. Now, Montreal.

THE CANADIAN GRAND PRIX

The Circuit Gilles Villeneuve is one of those tracks you just love. Fast, aggressive, and it eats cars. The famous Wall of Champions has claimed some serious scalps over the years. Montreal rain at this time of year is notoriously unpredictable, Safety Cars are almost guaranteed. It is a punter’s paradise if you pick your spots right.

It’s also a Sprint weekend. Friday Sprint Qualifying, Saturday Sprint then main Qualifying, Sunday race. More action, more opportunity, more variables. I love it.

THE TEAMS

Mercedes

How do you go against them right now? Honestly. Four wins from four races. Antonelli on 100 points, Russell on 80. They lead the Constructors by 70 points over Ferrari. Nothing suggests that’s changing in Montreal.

Kimi Antonelli to Win at $3.00 is the headline play this weekend. George Russell Top 3 at $1.25 is essentially a formality given where Mercedes sits right now. The ‘Team to Feature Winning Driver’ market is your anchor bet. It’s hard to see this race not going silver.

McLaren

Miami changed the conversation. Norris won the Sprint, pushed Antonelli hard in the Grand Prix, and Piastri grabbed the final podium spot. If that momentum carries to Montreal, they will be a real handful.

Oscar Piastri Top 3 at $2.25 is a genuine play. He’s hungry, the car looks improved, and Canada suits aggressive drivers. Keep an eye on how they qualify. If the papaya cars are near the front of the grid, that play firms up significantly.

Ferrari

The pace is there, but the consistency isn’t. Leclerc had a nightmare in Miami. Spun late, copped a post-race penalty, dropped out of a potential podium. Hamilton has been solid without being spectacular. The Scuderia are second in the Constructors on 110 points, but McLaren are closing fast on 94.

Ferrari’s start-line pace has been a genuine weapon all season. Keep an eye on the ‘Leader After 1st Lap’ market if either Leclerc or Hamilton qualifies well. We’ve backed this market twice already this year and come out smiling both times. No reason to abandon this play if qualifying sits right.

Red Bull

Verstappen is seventh in the championship on 26 points. Zero wins, zero podiums. The numbers tell the story. The Red Bull simply hasn’t found its feet with the new 2026 regulations, and despite Verstappen doing everything he can to extract results, the car just isn’t giving him enough. Hard to back them with any confidence this weekend.

The Best of the Rest – Ollie Bearman

Forget the team standings for a second and look at the individual driver battle outside the top six. Ollie Bearman is eighth in the championship on 17 points. Ahead of Gasly, ahead of Lawson, ahead of everyone not driving for Mercedes, Ferrari or McLaren. The kid has been quietly brilliant all season, extracting every ounce of performance available to him. Composed, clinical, and completely underrated. Ollie Bearman ‘Best of the Rest’ is the play. He’s been the standout performer in that battle all year and I don’t see that changing in Montreal.

PLAYS FOR THIS WEEKEND

Kimi Antonelli to Win – $3.00

George Russell Top 3 – $1.25

Oscar Piastri Top 3 – $2.25

Ferrari ‘Leader After 1st Lap’ (pending qualifying)

Ollie Bearman ‘Best of the Rest’

A Sprint weekend, Montreal walls, rain on the horizon, and a teenager chasing his fourth straight win. What more do you want?

Happy punting!

Odds correct at time of publication.

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