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Digby Beacham’s AFL Preview: Round 5

Posted on | Posted by Digby Beacham

THURSDAY

Brisbane v Collingwood, Gabba, 5.35pm

Are Brisbane ready for the bright lights? Well, we are about to find out. Five days after being lit up on the MCG stage by Essendon, the Lions return home for a sold-out Easter Thursday showdown against a true competition heavyweight.

Brisbane have taken down West Coast and Port Adelaide at the Gabba already this season, courtesy of a bold game plan and slick ball movement, aided considerably by the presence of former Fremantle midfielder Lachie Neale. Much will rest on his ability to again find the football in close and distribute it cleanly against the might of the Magpies’ running division.

Collingwood weren’t overly impressive against the Western Bulldogs last Friday night, but still notched an important win. Nathan Buckley has a group that can beat you in a variety of ways when at its best and that is just as well because Brisbane at the Gabba is quickly becoming one of the more testing assignments in footy again.

VERDICT: Collingwood by 11 points

FRIDAY

North Melbourne v Essendon, Marvel Stadium, 2.20pm

North Melbourne breathed life into their season with a come-from-behind victory over Adelaide last Saturday night. It came a week after the Bombers did exactly the same with their rollicking result against Melbourne in round three.

But given how poor these two sides were in the initial stages of the year, any step back will be frowned upon by their supporters. The Bombers will want to take this game on and build in waves from the back, whereas the Kangaroos will be looking to replicate their defensive prowess from six days ago.

The return to form of Ben Brown was heartening from a Kangaroos perspective, but the quality of Michael Hurley in the Essendon defence is a massive plus for coach John Worsfold. If Essendon are able to get the game on the outside, which is much more to their liking, it’s debatable whether the Kangaroos will have the leg speed to go with them.

VERDICT: Essendon by 21 points

West Coast v Port Adelaide, Optus Stadium, 6.10pm

West Coast have tormented Port Adelaide in recent times and Adam Simpson’s men now host the Power emboldened by the fact they are premiers. On what we have witnessed in 2019, it is extremely difficult to see how the visitors get over the top of their bogy side.

The Power were beaten on home soil by a depleted Richmond last weekend and now have to front up at Optus Stadium, a venue they lost twice at in 2018, against an Eagles outfit riding a three-game winning streak which has propelled it to the head of the premiership market.

West Coast have shown in the past three weeks how efficient they are defensively and the prospect of awful weather will only make Port’s desire to kick a winning total all the more harder. At the other end, the Eagles have options aplenty to get the job done.

VERDICT: West Coast by 20 points

SATURDAY

GWS v Fremantle, UNSW Canberra Oval, 11.45am

The expectation of many this year was Greater Western Sydney would perhaps be vulnerable late in the year due to the annual exodus of elite talent. We are a long way out but the opening month, highlighted by last weekend’s stirring win in Geelong, suggests that argument is very flawed.

The skills and grit of GWS are undeniable, with the form of Lachie Whitfield, Stephen Coniglio, Josh Kelly and Jacob Hopper midfield giving Leon Cameron’s side a platform from which to build. And now that Jeremy Cameron has returned to the type of player we saw early in his career, this side is, to put it bluntly, stacked.

What does that all mean? Fremantle are going to have to conjure up a very special effort to take down the Giants in the nation’s capital. The return from concussion of Nat Fyfe is a massive bonus, but the Dockers’ skill level and inefficiency in front of goal is a puzzle coach Ross Lyon cannot solve.

VERDICT: GWS by 34 points

Melbourne v St Kilda, MCG, 2.35pm

Are Melbourne back or was the win against Sydney last Thursday night a false dawn? The answer to that question will be revealed at the end of this match. The Demons were on the ropes against the Swans in the second quarter but, powered by Nathan Jones, willed themselves over the line.

It was the type of grit that had been lacking. Indeed, it was the type of grit we have seen every week from St Kilda in 2019. As a result, Alan Richardson’s charges are 3-1, despite being without a swag of their best players. If there is a shortcoming for the Saints however, it is their ability to convert forward of centre.

Their pressure without the ball is high, their willingness to compete equally impressive, but ultimately goals wins matches and Richardson needs to find a solution to their Achilles heel. The expected return of Jordan Lewis and Neville Jetta to stiffen Melbourne’s defence makes that task a little harder.

VERDICT: Melbourne by 19 points

Richmond v Sydney, Marvel Stadium, 5.25pm

Richmond clearly didn’t read the script. Banged up and vulnerable, it was inevitable that they would travel over to South Australia and lose a third successive match against Port Adelaide. Or so we thought.

The Tigers hung tough early and then flourished in the face of adversity, with high-priced recruit Tom Lynch booting six goals as the main man in attack and Dylan Grimes turning in a wonderful defensive display in the absence of Alex Rance. Grimes’ intercept marking was pivotal to the result and looms as a major headache for Sydney coach John Longmire as he attempts to unlock his team’s goal-kicking woes.

The Swans look tardy through the midfield and unless Lance Franklin kicks a bag, it is difficult to see them accumulating sufficient goals to be competitive. For years we have been waiting to see when Sydney would fall off the cliff. The time is now.

VERDICT: Richmond by 30 points

SUNDAY

Western Bulldogs v Carlton, Marvel Stadium, 11.10am

The Western Bulldogs haven’t done a lot wrong this season, but they are still only 2-2 and desperately in need of ensuring their competitiveness, coupled with a healthy and in-form midfield, is maximised. This contest presents that opportunity.

The Bulldogs were brave against Collingwood, only to be hindered by a malfunctioning forward line. Marcus Bontempelli is in unbelievably good touch and the prospect of him going head-to-head with Carlton’s bull, co-captain Patrick Cripps, makes this game a must-watch.

The Blues are still seeking their first win for the year, having coughed up the unlosable match against Gold Coast last Sunday. Brendon Bolton has the weapons forward of centre in Charlie Curnow, Harry McKay and Mitch McGovern to pose a real threat, but the delivery to them is more often than not substandard.

VERDICT: Western Bulldogs by 23 points 

Adelaide v Gold Coast, Adelaide Oval, 2.40pm

The pressure is building on one coach in this match. And it isn’t Stuart Dew, rather Don Pyke. Adelaide’s mentor is being scrutinised like never before after the Crows’ horror 1-3 start to the year, with his side’s inability to move the ball with purpose a major sticking point.

There have been accusations this week that there is a lack of spirit at Adelaide. It is a criticism that stings a football club more than most. How the Crows respond, both at the selection table and on game day, will be intriguing to watch.

What we do know is the Suns will bring effort, cohesion and a togetherness that has delighted Dew for the first month of the year. They aren’t winning by big margins, but given the trials and tribulations of the club since its inception, that is of little consequence. David Swallow continues to display admirable leadership for Gold Coast and he will need to do so again here.

VERDICT: Adelaide by 10 points

MONDAY

Hawthorn v Geelong, MCG, 1.20pm

Alastair Clarkson is widely regarded as the best coach in the game. And for good reason. But the four-time premiership winner is going to have to orchestrate something quite amazing to leave the MCG with the four points here.

The Hawks are banged up in key areas, chiefly through the midfield, and seemingly ripe for the picking. That was the case last Sunday when St Kilda got over the top of them late, and in all due respect to the Saints, Geelong are a superior side with better formlines, even taking into account their narrow loss to Greater Western Sydney.

The Cats have the muscle through the centre of the ground courtesy of Patrick Dangerfield, Joel Selwood, Tim Kelly, Mitch Duncan and Sam Menegola to drive a wedge between the two teams, and their defensive mechanisms are extremely sound also.

VERDICT: Geelong by 32 points

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