Races

Andrew Hawkins’ Royal Ascot Preview: Day 2

Posted on | Posted by Andrew Hawkins

RACE 1

Day 2 begins with the G2 Queen Mary Stakes for the two-year-old fillies over the minimum five furlongs (a1000m). Named for Mary of Teck, the wife of King George V, it has been contested since 1921 with winners including Mumtaz Mahal, Sun Chariot, Coronation and Lyric Fantasy. In recent years, American trainer Wesley Ward has had plenty of success with fillies like Acapulco, Lady Aurelia and Campanelle, while Karl Burke has won two of the last four. Perhaps Burke is the way to look again with his Mehmas filly WILD BLOSSOM, who was ever so good on debut at Carlisle when winning by 10 lengths. The time wasn’t anything special – in fact, she would be one of the slower debut winners to come into this race – but sometimes you just have to trust your eye and Burke did progress Venetian Sun out of the same Carlisle race to win the G3 Albany Stakes this week last year. VICTORIOUS drops back to five furlongs after winning both her starts over 1200m, including a Group 3 at Naas last start. The Albany would have been more logical but the drop in trip could prove a masterstroke if she can get the right drag into the race. RUIVA, a Ward winner on the Churchill Downs dirt in April, will likely go forward and try to stick on. She may be the one they have to run down. Next best is SHIMMERING SUN at odds; she could be the one to emerge nearest to the stands side.

Numbers: 27-26-21-23

Suggested Bet: Wild Blossom WIN

RACE 2

The G2 Queen’s Vase, for the three-year-olds over a mile and six furlongs (a2800m), is the first staying test of the week for the Classic generation. Since it was shortened from two miles in 2017, it has become a much sharper and classier race, with winners including Stradivarius, Kew Gardens, Santiago, Eldar Eldarov, Gregory and Illinois. That’s not to say it didn’t produce good horses beforehand – Mahler, Estimate and Hartnell all won this when it was over the longer trip – but it does feel a more natural launching pad now for horses who could end up anywhere from the St Leger to the Melbourne Cup. The only Melbourne Cup winner to run in the race previously is Twilight Payment, while each of the last three years has produced a future runner. This year, GALIYAN looks fascinating for Andrew Balding. He enters having only won a Chester maiden but he looks to have abundant upside. He should race handy and gives every impression he will stay this trip with ease. It’s also interesting to note that Balding had Furthur run second in this race last year; by season’s end, he was running midfield in the Melbourne Cup. ASAKIR finished second to LIMESTONE in the Listed Yeats Stakes last start. He can reverse the form here up to this sort of trip. RAVENSPIRE has won both of his starts to date, one on the Southwell all-weather and one on the Haydock turf. He is well-bred and looks progressive. Royal runner POINT OF LAW would be a popular result, 14 years after Estimate won the race for Queen Elizabeth II.

Numbers: 3-1-10-7

Suggested Bet: Galiyan WIN (Best Bet)

RACE 3

The G2 Duke Of Cambridge Stakes is for the older mares on the round mile. It was introduced in 2004 as the Windsor Forest Stakes as part of a concerted effort to entice mares to remain in training before it was renamed for Prince William in 2013. Recent winners include Saffron Beach, Running Lion and Crimson Advocate, who was already a Royal Ascot winner in the Queen Mary before returning last year to win this for James McDonald. CATHEDRAL has drawn awkwardly on the circle – if only she’d drawn wide down the straight! She rarely runs a bad race and has some great performances in G1 races to her name but she also hasn’t won aside from her debut in a maiden in September, 2024. She drops back in trip to the mile, having finished second to JANCIS in the G2 Dahlia Stakes last month. She will be sticking on late. BLUE BOLT has only had seven starts, winning four of them and finishing second on a further two occasions. One of those runner-up efforts was in last year’s G1 Sun Chariot Stakes and a repeat of that effort has her firmly in contention here. Group 1 winner FRIENDLY SOUL has her second start back after a long lay-off. She was pulled up fresh and is one of the big question marks of the whole week; if she’s anywhere near right, she could make a mess of them but it’s hard to enter with any confidence. KON TIKI was beaten for the first time in the G1 Coronation Stakes here at Royal Ascot last year and did not race again until a good return behind Blue Bolt at Goodwood last month. She should take plenty of improvement for that.

Numbers: 6-3-10-12

Suggested Bet: Cathedral EACH WAY

RACE 4

The G1 Prince Of Wales’s Stakes over 10 furlongs (a2000m) is the feature of Day 2 and one of the most important middle-distance races of the European summer. It has been a very good race from a Cox Plate perspective too – So You Think and State Of Rest both won it after their Moonee Valley triumphs, while Grandera and Highland Reel also tie the race back to Australia as Cox Plate placegetters. Add in the likes of Dubai Millennium, Fantastic Light, Ouija Board, Lord North, Auguste Rodin and last year’s winner OMBUDSMAN – just in this century – and it is clear this is one of the great Royal Ascot honour rolls. So will Ombudsman become the first horse in more than 30 years to add his name to the record books twice or will DARYZ take the prize? At his last three starts, Daryz has developed into arguably the best horse in Europe, winning the G1 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, the G1 Prix Ganay and the G1 Prix d’Ispahan (newly renamed as the G1 Prix Aga Khan IV after his late owner). His one start in Britain saw him finish more than 12 lengths behind Ombudsman in the G1 Juddmonte International at York last year, which is a slight concern, but he looks to have a higher ceiling than Ombudsman and he gets the nod. Ombudsman won the G1 Dubai Turf in March and returned to Britain a winner in the G3 Brigadier Gerard Stakes under a 7lb penalty. He is the more reliable candidate but he might not be able to see off Daryz at his best. SEE THE FIRE is honest and could fill a minor placing at odds, while MINNIE HAUK does look like she needs a mile and a half again but she must be considered a place chance with the line through Daryz from last year’s Arc.

Numbers: 3-6-8-7

Suggested Bet: Daryz WIN

RACE 5

The Royal Hunt Cup is Royal Ascot’s great straight-mile cavalry charge. It is a handicap, but it has been staged since 1843 and it sits comfortably alongside Australian handicaps like the Doncaster and the Epsom as the sort of race where the draw, the speed map and simple luck in running can matter just as much as raw ability. It remains one of my favourite races of the week and, even if most of these are just below stakes grade, this is often the race that tells us which horses are ready to make that leap. One who looks destined for stakes grade in time, potentially down here, is LA BOTTE in the colours of the late Col McKenna. La Botte looked the winner in the three-year-old equivalent, the Britannia Stakes, last year before he was just run down by Arabian Story. His three runs this season have not been great but they have ensured that he gets in well at the weights and he is a major player. LINWOOD has won his last two starts, one in late last year and one in April. He gets right up in the weights now but he is clearly in great order. INDALO will be improved for his first-up run at Newbury, when he was just headed off by CLASSIC. He has an official rating of 98 but looks to be headed for 110+ in no time at all; he must be included in all exotics but might just need one more run to find peak fitness. The former Australian HENLEIN looks one of the better value plays in this race. Second to Evaporate in the G2 Bill Stutt Stakes and El Castello in the G1 Spring Champion Stakes, he has had one start in the UK for a midfield effort at Haydock. The Ascot mile should suit him and he is a huge price.

Numbers: 16-3-27-9

Suggested Bet: La Botte EACH WAY

RACE 6

The Kensington Palace Stakes is still finding its identity, having only been introduced in 2021, but it has already become a typically tricky Royal Ascot handicap. It is restricted to the older fillies and mares over a mile and, if anything, it is a combination of the Duke Of Cambridge Stakes and the Royal Hunt Cup. The first five winners – Lola Showgirl, Rising Star, Villanova Queen, Doha and Miss Information – all started at double figures, so this has certainly been a race where it has paid to look beyond the obvious. RADIANT BEAUTY raced right away to win a handicap at the course and distance last month. She still gets in well at the weights here and she can climb higher in the ratings. SONG N DANCE was second to Radiant Beauty last month and meets her 5lb better. It might not be enough to reverse the result but she must be a player too. CHESHIRE DANCER steps out of stakes company and drops in trip. She is a fascinating runner. SEREN STAR can add value to exotics on her favoured firm ground.

Numbers: 8-20-4-13

Suggested Bet: Radiant Beauty WIN

RACE 7

The Listed Windsor Castle Stakes, which has been run since 1960, introduces new conditions in 2026. It has been the secondary five-furlong race for the two-year-olds during its history, but it has been extended to six furlongs (a1200m) this year with conditions around eligible runners. In order to be eligible, a horse’s sire must have won in excess of 1308m at two or in excess of 1509m at three or older. So, using Australia’s champion sires as an example, juveniles by Snitzel, I Am Invincible and Fastnet Rock would not be eligible while those by Zoustar, The Autumn Sun or So You Think would be. If Victorious runs well in the Queen Mary earlier in the day, then it will enhance the prospects of CONTROLLA. She was sensational on debut chasing home Victorious and they put six lengths on their rivals. It appears a shrewd move to come to the Windsor Castle. SERGEI DIAGHILEV won a Curragh maiden that has been taken by the likes of Henri Matisse and Arizona in the past. He is closely related to Melbourne Cup runner-up Johannes Vermeer and so will surely get further in time, but he still looks too immature for the Coventry – hence why he is running here. This looks a good spot for him. SALE SHARK and CELERON were good winners on debut at Hamilton and the Curragh respectively and could figure if they take a step forward.

Numbers: 20-17-16-6

Suggested Bet: Controlla WIN

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