Sports

Digby Beacham’s AFL Preview: Round 16

Posted on | Posted by Digby Beacham

THURSDAY

Gold Coast v Richmond, Marvel Stadium, 5.20pm

Who was the more disappointing in round 15? Richmond kicking two goals in losing to St Kilda at the MCG or Gold Coast being outworked and outclassed by wooden spoon favourites North Melbourne in Hobart?

It is a photo finish. The Tigers’ loss was perhaps more surprising. Equally, if there is not a response this week, the entire football world, which has them on the watch list in regards to still being a premiership threat, will be horrified.

So too will Damien Hardwick. We know Richmond don’t enjoy playing at Marvel Stadium. That said, the Suns don’t enjoy playing after the midway point of a season.

VERDICT: Richmond by 32 points

FRIDAY

Geelong v Essendon, GMHBA Stadium, 5.50pm

Pump the brakes. For those willing to question Geelong’s flag credentials after last week’s mauling at the hands of Brisbane, just take a deep breath.

The Cats’ form until the Gabba display was really good and they simply had a bad night. This match against an Essendon outfit on the improve but struggling to get the big scalp that will propel them into the top eight, will stir Geelong’s juices.

Joel Selwood, Patrick Dangerfield and Shaun Higgins have had superb careers. They were really poor against the Lions. If they rebound like we expect, the Bombers’ backline will be kept extremely busy.

VERDICT: Geelong by 27 points

SATURDAY

Melbourne v GWS, MCG, 11.45am

A quick glance at Greater Western Sydney’s recent formlines don’t make for pretty reading. A draw to North Melbourne and last Sunday’s loss to Hawthorn don’t enhance your top-eight credentials.

But the body of work since the Giants went 0-3 to start the year, in the face of mounting injuries, has been sound. However, they need to be better than sound in this clash if they are to become only the third team this season to get over the top of Melbourne.

The Demons were challenged by Essendon last weekend, but the midfield grunt of Clayton Oliver and Christian Petracca, and overall defensive structure, shone through. They are a tough nut to score against and GWS will find that out, even if Jesse Hogan returns from injury.

VERDICT: Melbourne by 23 points

Adelaide v Brisbane, Adelaide Oval, 2.35pm

If Adelaide were to cause an almighty upset here and take down Brisbane, you’d think everything has to go according to plan. A rushed trip to Melbourne midweek to avoid being caught up in a potential lockdown doesn’t fit into that category.

As for the Lions, they were also inconvenienced this week by jetting out of Brisbane 24 hours earlier than expected to escape a lockdown of their own. But it shouldn’t prove a problem for a line-up that played last Thursday night and is showing a greater efficiency, harder edge and more cohesion than we saw for the most part in 2019 and 2020.

Brisbane’s weapons will prove problematic for the Crows, who are on the quick spin around and must find a way to plug the gaps defensively that led to eight second-term goals against Carlton which ultimately cost them the match.

VERDICT: Brisbane by 28 points

Fremantle v Carlton, MCG, 5.40pm

If Justin Longmuir’s attitude is embraced by his players, Fremantle fans can expect a spirited performance from the Dockers in a second match against Carlton in Victoria this season.

Longmuir insisted Fremantle had to “charge on” in the face of the upheaval caused by fresh COVID-19 cases in Perth. Ideally, they would be hosting the Blues at Optus Stadium, failing that playing down in Launceston. We know that isn’t the case.

The Dockers can take solace from the fact they found a way against Collingwood and with Nat Fyfe back in the line-up, have the midfield grunt to stand toe-to-toe with the likes of Patrick Cripps and Sam Walsh, while being aided by Zac Williams’ suspension and Sam Docherty’s ankle injury.

VERDICT: Fremantle by 11 points

Hawthorn v Port Adelaide, Marvel Stadium, 5.40pm

Shaun Burgoyne’s magnificent career will be celebrated with understandable fanfare in this match, his 400th at the elite level. Can Hawthorn continue their impressive recent form to ensure he remembers the occasion with a great deal of fondness?

On what we have seen recently, you could quite easily say yes. The Hawks are rolling again, displaying more potency forward of the ball and a willingness to take the game on which we didn’t see in the first part of 2021.

Port Adelaide will be aware of the risk Hawthorn pose, with the club having an intimate knowledge of how special a person Burgoyne is. If Port can win their share of possession midfield, the forward-line options could swamp the Hawks’ defence.

VERDICT: Port Adelaide by 19 points

SUNDAY

Sydney v West Coast, GMHBA Stadium, 11.10am

West Coast will bounce this weekend. They simply have to. Last Sunday’s loss to the Western Bulldogs was too bad to be true, a performance turned in that had supporters shaking their heads and wondering whether finals were a formality.

Just how big a spike there is on a week when the Eagles had to get out of dodge far earlier than anticipated, with no guarantees of returning home on Sunday as expected, is the great unknown.

Sydney stretched the necks of Port Adelaide in Adelaide last Saturday, a display that showed the bye they looked like they desperately needed, had the desired effect. Whether they are able to maintain that level at a ground they enjoy playing at will go a long way towards influencing the outcome of this game.

VERDICT: Sydney by 12 points

Collingwood v St Kilda, MCG, 1.20pm

Not for the first time since we have witnessed them lining up in the same side together, Paddy Ryder and Rowan Marshall proved just how influential they can be against Richmond.

Their presence gives Brett Ratten a wonderful 1-2 punch and it is a combination which will no doubt require much planning from interim Magpies coach Robert Harvey, who has access to a high-class big man himself in Brodie Grundy.

Normally, this match is a venue contest. If staged at Marvel Stadium, there is a leaning to the Saints. If staged at the MCG, like it is, there is a leaning to the Magpies. But St Kilda simply destroyed Richmond at the home of football last round and that is a formline that needs to be respected.

VERDICT: St Kilda by 12 points

Western Bulldogs v North Melbourne, Marvel Stadium, 2.40pm

North Melbourne fans are entitled to feel good about themselves, knowing full well that finally there appears to be light at the end of the tunnel that isn’t an oncoming train.

Then realisation hits. The Kangaroos are fronting up to the Western Bulldogs, who just put West Coast to the sword in Perth and earlier this year made David Noble’s side look like a bunch of Sunday amateurs on Good Friday.

North will field a stronger line-up this time around, but the Bulldogs are relentless and boast the midfield depth that eclipsed a stronger running division last Sunday at Optus Stadium than what the underdogs here possess.

VERDICT: Western Bulldogs by 39 points

Market Market



Recent Articles