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Digby Beacham’s AFL Preview: Round 13

Posted on | Posted by Digby Beacham

FRIDAY

Gold Coast v Carlton, TIO Stadium, Darwin, 5.50pm

Carlton’s finals hopes were revived in dramatic fashion against Fremantle last weekend, a result that will be wasted if they cannot overcome a Gold Coast side which is looking to finish an encouraging season with some much-needed victories.

The Blues can play powerful football in the course of matches, with the midfield grunt of Patrick Cripps, Ed Curnow and Sam Walsh against Fremantle last weekend impossible to ignore. The effort of the Suns in their loss to Richmond midweek was also hard to miss.

The Suns have been boosted by the return of David Swallow and Jarrod Harbrow, veterans who balance out the young bodies that appear to be showing signs of fatigue. If the Blues are to remain in the finals mix, this is a game they simply must snare.

VERDICT: Carlton by 11 points

SAME GAME COMBO: Blues Win + Cripps / Murphy / Curnow / Walsh all get 15+ disposals @ $2.30

SATURDAY

Western Bulldogs v Melbourne, Metricon Stadium, 11.45am

Melbourne have done what they needed to in their past three games — thump Adelaide, North Melbourne and Collingwood — to seriously enhance their top-eight claims. You could argue that the Western Bulldogs also flexed their muscles opposed to the Crows last round.

It was the type of performance we saw in the back half of last year from the Bulldogs, who clearly are a far more potent side with both Aaron Naughton and Lachie Hunter in their line-up. Naughton’s contribution opposed to experienced Demons key defenders Steven May and Jake Lever will have a large bearing on the outcome.

The Demons’ midfield has a see-ball-get-ball mentality, but it is in good form. Angus Brayshaw rediscovering his best touch in recent weeks is an undeniable advantage.

VERDICT: Melbourne by 10 points

Port Adelaide v Hawthorn, Adelaide Oval, 2.35pm

Port Adelaide had an opportunity to press their premiership claims against Geelong last week. To say they left Metricon Stadium with their tail between their legs in an understatement.

The Power’s reliance on Charlie Dixon was exposed, not for the first time, and how Ken Hinkley tinkers his approach entering this game will be monitored closely. James Sicily would have been a key plank in Hawthorn’s bid to limit Dixon until he ruptured an anterior cruciate ligament against Fremantle.

The Hawks are light on for midfield options and had their stocks restricted even further when Jaeger O’Meara was sent for surgery on a broken hand.

VERDICT: Port Adelaide by 29 points

Essendon v Richmond, TIO Stadium, Darwin, 5.40pm

Ask football enthusiasts for a premiership tip and many quickly blurt out Richmond. It is not a shock given the momentum they are building and the talent that is still to come back into the side.

That said, they still enter round 13 outside the top four and facing a banana skin game against Essendon, who have been smacked in the media this week for a muddled game plan and awkward transition from John Worsfold to Ben Rutten.

Essendon will appreciate a six-day break opposed to the short turnaround ahead of their loss to St Kilda last weekend, but they are going to need every bit of that to curb a Tigers outfit that looms ominously as the finals approach.

VERDICT: Richmond by 23 points

Fremantle v Sydney, Optus Stadium, 6.10pm

If you are expecting a high-scoring contest, it might be best to look elsewhere. If you are looking for a match-up between two resolute coaches whose troops know exactly what is required of them, you have come to the right place.

Fremantle coughed up four points last Saturday night, 48 hours after Sydney snared four points that appeared beyond them. The Swans would love to end their WA stretch with another victory here, although that task has been made harder this week by the unavailability of Dane Rampe (hand).

The Dockers’ body of work has been encouraging under Justin Longmuir and this is a very winnable match before they conclude their home-and-away campaign in Queensland.

VERDICT: Fremantle by 13 points

SUNDAY

Adelaide v Geelong, Adelaide Oval, 11.05am

It doesn’t seem all that long ago that these two sides squared off in a preliminary final before a heaving Adelaide Oval. There will be tens of thousands less inside the picturesque ground on this occasion … which is probably a good thing.

Adelaide were atrocious against the Western Bulldogs last weekend. Their lack of work rate and system was exposed by a middle-of-a-road team, not one that is airborne and has legitimate claims on premiership favouritism.

The Cats are so well organised in all areas of the ground and have a genuine matchwinner deep forward in Tom Hawkins. It is impossible to see how the Crows win this match.

VERDICT: Geelong by 35 points

Brisbane v St Kilda, Gabba, 1.35pm

Brisbane have soldiered on without Stefan Martin and Archie Smith thanks to the efforts of Oscar McInerney. A serious litmus test awaits, however, in the shape of dual-pronged Saints big men Rowan Marshall and Paddy Ryder.

The tap work of Ryder remains at an elite level, adding weight to the list management’s decision at the club to land him, along with Zac Jones and Dan Butler at the end of last season.

Brisbane didn’t get a lot out of wounded goalsneak Charlie Cameron (knee) against North Melbourne and he will be desperate to atone to quieten the critics questioning his ability to play while sore.

VERDICT: Brisbane by 11 points

West Coast v GWS, Optus Stadium, 4.10pm

Good sides, when challenged, find a way to respond. It is what West Coast did earlier this season after losing their first three matches in the Queensland hub. They have since compiled a seven-game winning sequence.

The football world awaits what Greater Western Sydney do in this game. Embarrassed by Sydney last Thursday night, the Giants are in desperate need of a quick response to instill belief in the game plan and the players themselves.

The expected return of Toby Greene is massive, while former skipper Phil Davis is also tipped to take his place to shore up the GWS back line. Even though West Coast have their injuries, they are in form and reliable. GWS are neither.

VERDICT: West Coast by 20 points

MONDAY

Collingwood v North Melbourne, Gabba, 5.10pm

One banged-up side against a team that is very much limited without its best ball winner and key forward.

Collingwood are missing a swag of first-choice personnel, sparking debate whether they have gone past the tipping point and could be missing the finals. The Kangaroos’ post-season aspirations were over a long time ago in a campaign that has petered out dramatically.

Both the Magpies and Kangaroos have struggled this season to kick big totals. It could well come down to the coach who is the most imaginative with his game plan to compensate for the deficiencies.

VERDICT: Collingwood by 9 points

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