Sports

Digby Beacham’s AFL Preview: Round 12

Posted on | Posted by Digby Beacham

THURSDAY

Sydney v GWS, Optus Stadium, 6.10pm

On pure talent, tonight’s Battle of the Bridge between Greater Western Sydney and Sydney at Optus Stadium (yes, Optus Stadium) should be a one-act affair. The Giants have panels on the Swans in the ability stakes.

But we know that John Longmire-coached sides can be a tough nut to crack and his defence-first approach may well test the patience of the slick Giants, who can run up big possession numbers but aren’t prolific scorers.

The wide expanses of Optus Stadium and relative fine conditions should suit GWS key forwards Jeremy Cameron, Harry Himmelberg and Jeremy Finlayson if they are afforded some one-on-one opportunities by their teammates further afield. Aside from Tom Papley and Sam Reid, Sydney don’t have the same luxury.

VERDICT: GWS by 20 points

SAME GAME COMBO: Giants Kick 2+ Goals in Every Quarter @ $2.55

FRIDAY

Geelong v Port Adelaide, Metricon Stadium, 5.50pm

It is impossible not to be impressed with what Geelong have done since the resumption. They were embarrassed by Greater Western Sydney in round one. Since then though, they have gone one way, the Giants the other. Everyone would rather be on the path the Cats have taken.

Tom Hawkins has his share of critics, but the performances he has turned in over the first half of the year have been outstanding. He draws the ball as all key forwards do and he is finishing. Port’s Charlie Dixon also has much of his team’s forward thrusts go through him, but the finishing from his part is not as clinical.

Patrick Dangerfield has occupied the forward line for large periods against North Melbourne and St Kilda in the past week and a half. With that in mind, let’s hope he is injected into the centre square from the outset here. It could well set the tone.

VERDICT: Geelong by 12 points

SAME GAME COMBO: Cats Win + Menegola / Guthrie / Duncan / Danger all get 15+ disposals @ $2.40

SATURDAY

North Melbourne v Brisbane, Metricon Stadium, 12.35pm

North Melbourne found themselves in the crosshairs of critics in the wake of their horrid performance against Melbourne last weekend. Normally such a display would lead to a response. I’m not sure the Kangaroos are capable of one.

They look absolutely shot and one thing we have learnt this season from a Brisbane point of view, is they continue to give great effort. The Lions were beaten by Richmond recently, however their effort couldn’t be questioned. Their goal kicking is another matter entirely.

Brisbane’s ability to destroy the Western Bulldogs late in the first half last weekend underlined the weapons and ball movement Chris Fagan’s side boast. North are banged up and not anywhere near that level.

VERDICT: Brisbane by 42 points

Melbourne v Collingwood, Gabba, 3.10pm

Put your hand up if you have been critical of Melbourne this season. Go on don’t be shy. You are not alone. It is easy to be critical, not so comfortable to be complimentary. For all their faults against Brisbane, the Demons couldn’t have been more stylish against Adelaide and North Melbourne.

Their next challenge is a beauty. Collingwood are as wounded as any club in this hub-enforced campaign, but they are hanging tough. In all sorts at half-time against Adelaide during the week, they found a way. Like all proud clubs do.

They will ask many questions of the Demons, thanks in no small part to the expected availability of Scott Pendlebury and Darcy Moore. How Nathan Buckley curtails Clayton Oliver and Christian Petracca will be fascinating.

VERDICT: Collingwood by 6 points

Fremantle v Carlton, Optus Stadium, 6.10pm

Fremantle’s emergence from the Ross Lyon era continues to take shape at a rate which is pleasing all at the club. Back-to-back wins over Collingwood and Hawthorn have given the players great self-belief and prompted talk of an unlikely finals appearance.

Another win against Carlton would have them on the cusp of the top eight. And they certainly get a look. No Jack Martin is a huge boost for the Dockers, who have proven extremely difficult to score against.

Much focus will be on the Blues’ ability to sustain an effort. They are following excellent patches in games with prolonged periods of dour, reactive football. If the Dockers lock them down early, they can prevail.

VERDICT: Fremantle by 11 points

SUNDAY

Western Bulldogs v Adelaide, Metricon Stadium, 11.05am

At half-time of Tuesday night’s clash between Adelaide and Collingwood, neutral observers held out hope. That being Adelaide would capitalise on an encouraging first half and chalk up win No.1 of the season.

Reality then bit. And hard. Their inability to apply sufficient scoreboard pressure came back to haunt them. Those shortcomings are likely to prove a real issue here against a Western Bulldogs side that has its own problems, but is far more accomplished than the Crows.

Marcus Bontempelli, Josh Dunkley, Jack Macrae, Tom Liberatore and Bailey Smith accumulate a heap of numbers through the midfield and their spread will ask many questions of the leaden-footed Crows.

VERDICT: Western Bulldogs by 28 points

St Kilda v Essendon, Gabba, 1.35pm

The moment of truth for St Kilda has arrived. Considered top-four material prior to their shambolic display against Geelong midweek, they now find themselves desperately needing a win against Essendon.

The fact that the Bombers were involved in a draw against Gold Coast on Wednesday night works in their favour. The loss of Jade Gresham to stress fractures in his back does not. How the Saints’ midfield handles the likes of Andy McGrath, Dylan Shiel and Zach Merrett could be telling in the outcome.

Essendon can be hit and miss … all in the course of game. Their hits are super. Their misses, however, are alarming. Not a great deal separates the two, so we’ll back in the Saints’ body of work to this point. Just.

VERDICT: St Kilda by 2 points

West Coast v Hawthorn, Optus Stadium, 4.10pm

We all acknowledge that the 2020 season is a difficult one for all concerned in the game. But I suspect there is a small part of all Australian Rules football lovers that chuckle ever so slightly when sides who aren’t willing to take the game on struggle to bank victories.

Hawthorn are one such example. Their effort against Carlton a fortnight ago was breathtaking. Either side of that, they have lacked dare and copped their right whack. If you are not going to kick goals, wins are hard to come by.

Alastair Clarkson would be well aware of that, complicating matters for this clash with West Coast. The Eagles are chasing a seventh successive victory after come-from-behind efforts against Geelong and Carlton when their midfield depth has come to the fore. The Hawks have proven difficult for West Coast in recent seasons. Surely they don’t pose the same problems here.

VERDICT: West Coast by 30 points

MONDAY

Richmond v Gold Coast, Gabba, 5.10pm

Richmond are presented with a perfect opportunity to get their season back on track against Gold Coast at the Gabba tonight …and recent history suggests the Tigers don’t squander one when it is arises.

The Suns were solid enough in their draw against Essendon last week, but that formline didn’t hold up yesterday when the Bombers couldn’t get out of first gear in the loss to St Kilda. And they now have to front up against Richmond, boosted by the return of Trent Cotchin, without David Swallow and Jarrod Harbrow.

Richmond’s twin towers Tom Lynch and Jack Riewoldt are running into form and with the prospect of another fine night at a ground where quick entries are key, they are entitled to think a big night awaits.

VERDICT: Richmond by 32 points

SAME GAME COMBO: Tigers Win + Over 129.5 Total Match Points + Lynch / Riewoldt both Kick 2+ Goals @ $5.50

Market Market



Recent Articles