Races

Scott Embry’s Wednesday Belmont Preview

Posted on | Posted by Scott Embry

Race 1

JUNIPER could not have been more impressive on debut a fortnight ago. She settled near last over 1000m and was far too good for her maiden rivals, sprinting clear by an extending near 3L margin. At this time of year the 3 year old fillies taking on the older horses get a big age allowance and so she only rises half a kilo to 55.5 and has far more upside (and ability) than her rivals. Expect she’ll safely account for these. SPANISH ARMADA looks the danger. He breezed and won at Northam by a similar margin to Juniper and then went straight into a Westspeed Platinum where he met with a lot of support in betting. It was a leaders/fence day and he flopped, but 1200m and C1 company both look suitable. VIENNA CALLING is always there abouts. CAWARRA tries hard but is no star.

Numbers: 6 – 1 – 2 – 3

Suggested Bet – JUNIPER WIN

Race 2

OFFICIAL BUSINESS trialled as well as now Saturday winning filly Gaintree before resuming on a Heavy9 at Northam. Looked all at sea and ran around like a drunken sailor in the home straight. Hopefully onto a Soft5/Soft6 he is more comfortable and can go a bit straighter for Chris Parnham. OUR MAIN MAN was resuming off only a 400m jump out when running second to Truly Loyal in a high rating maiden. With Truly Loyal heading to a 60+ Graduation on the weekend and winning the form stands out and if he can take natural improvement first-up to second-up then he’ll be right in the mix. CHATTA VISION comes through a very slowly run 4yo+ trial (and wore visors) but did still catch the eye with a sustained run from the back of the field. Watch on debut. XELCIMUS has been her own worst enemy throughout a career littered with bad luck stories and excuses.

Numbers: 6 – 7 – 2 – 4

Suggested Bet – OFFICIAL BUSINESS WIN

Race 3

GUNNING FOR GOLD comes through the Star Marini / Official Business race which is on show in Race 2. His trial prior to making his debut was strong, when he worked his way through heavy traffic under little riding and the way he hit the line on debut suggests that there’s a level of ability there. Drops 1.5kg with the Nottle claim, draws better and will be eachway. WESTERN PHOENIX and SECOND DRAFT both come through the same recent Lark Hill trial on 24 August (a strong/deep trial including Moose) and both look likely to get similar runs on race day to what they enjoyed at trials. CALL ME INVINCIBLE is now an 11 start maiden. There’s no doubting he’s racing well running third to now C1 winner Espresso Time and second to Gloranardo before running fourth to Truly Loyal and Our Main Man, but will barrier 1 be any help? And has he had his chances? Willing to risk as favourite.

Numbers: 7 – 12 – 10 – 1

Suggested Bet – GUNNING FOR GOLD EACHWAY

Race 4

STAR MARTINI and SUPERSMASH are both last start Northam maiden winners who like to jump and run. These 3 year old 0MWLY races are compressed (and high) weight races so they’ll both rise 4kg respectively to carry the highest weights of their short careers to date. Wary about getting too involved in horses and races like this but ultimately they’ll still carry less weight than the maiden/debutante geldings. Being drawn inside makes it advantage STAR MARTINI. MON VISAGE made her debut at 1200m and fought on well behind Hot Chix Lane. If they overcook it she might be the strongest/toughest late. She can park and ride on the leaders. SPIRIT OF BELLE can sit leader’s back and test the cutaway zone.

Numbers: 4 – 5 – 8 – 6

Suggested Bet – STAR MARTINI WIN

Race 5

LAST STYLEBENDER is really well placed into a C3. The last time he raced in this grade he won (carrying 58kg) and since then he has finished fourth in a 66+, fifth in a 60+ Grad, third  (beaten a head) in a 60+ Grad and most recently on a Heavy8 was on the worst part of the track and finished a distant fifth behind Niccimota. Should be in front for a long way. YAMASHITA’S GOLD has had two runs in WA and they’ve both been encouraging at Northam. 3kg claimer replaced by William Pike is always something that the market gravitates to and he’s afforded a gun map. KING’S DRAMA is a sit and sprint type who will be saved up for one last run at them. BOSISTO has come back in excellent order. Strong trial and strong fresh win.

Numbers: 1 – 3 – 2 – 4

Suggested Bet – LAST STYLEBENDER WIN

Race 6

CASSANDRA landed big bets on debut. She was backed to the exclusion of all others, sat rearward and powered down the centre of the Pinjarra track to gobble up now Saturday 3 year old winner Rocktex. It just screamed Champion Fillies and Grant & Alana Williams look like they’ll give her one more run in a C1 before she freshens in preparation for Ascot’s Summer Carnival. We’ve seen this blue print many a time and with only 55.5kg on her back expect that she’ll zap these. Anything better than even money = on. HOT CHIX LANE has been a work in progress across her career. Took her a while to hit top gear in her maiden but was doing her best over the last 100m. HEY TRUE BLUE has to contend with 61kg but did run fourth in both a Melvista Stakes and a WATC Derby. PERFUME PRINCESS is still a maiden but has a level of ability.

Numbers: 8 – 5 – 1 – 11

Suggested Bet – CASSANDRA WIN

Race 7

BACK TO BONDI was on the second 7 day spin last start (third run in a fortnight) and he just looked a bit flat and a bit tired. Off the more traditional fortnight spacing here, into an open and even contest and into a race with less speed and pressure early he can bounce back. IMPRESSIVE JEWEL jumped $2.80 two back when Pike rode and she didn’t fire a shot. Much better last start when she looked the winner on straightening before being swamped. LIEN HYPHEN finished last prep with a pair of low graded staying wins and then resumed first-up, no trial at Belmont in a 60+ Grad where she ran out of her skin behind Silent Diva (placed in a 66+ on the weekend). If she reproduces that effort she’ll be right in this. ROSIE CAN RUN is a model of consistency and once she finds form she holds it really well.

Numbers: 1 – 6 – 2 – 3

Suggested Bet – BACK TO BONDI WIN

Race 8

CLEANEMUP seems to go better the colder you ride her. She’s deep into a preparation (start 13) but this does look the weakest race she has seen since she was a fast finishing third to Belaura Star and Polyvanova in a C3 back in early August. 2.5L off Common Touch, Deel Her In (and Searchin’ Times), less than 2L off Champagne Crusader – it’s 60+ / 0MWLY form. There’s a good amount of tempo between Cable Rock and Radiant Light and Lieutenant Dunbar and provided they can make ground, she’ll be coming late. RADIANT LIGHT won well last week but was given a picnic in front (first 800m run 11L slower than average). CABLE ROCK beat him home the last time they met but this time around is drawn outside of him. SURROUND ME maps to get every mortal hope. But still not convinced on how good she is?

Numbers: 2 – 1 – 11 – 8

Suggested Bet – CLEANEMUP EACHWAY

Quaddie (Race 5 – 8)

1,2,3

8

1,2,3,6

1,2,8,11,12

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