Races

Chris Nelson’s Saturday Toowoomba Preview

Posted on | Posted by Chris Nelson

Race 1

Huge day ahead at Toowoomba with the running of the Listed Weetwood Handicap plus the Toowoomba Cup. Weather fine, track good. Leaning to (10) PERLE DE CHOCOLAT in the opener who hasn’t had the best of luck in recent races, whilst I’m not convinced about her running a strong 1300m she does draw ok & should get a soft trip. (6) THAT’S ARCHIES GIRL was a dual acceptor however has elected to go around in this race, backs up off a solid effort on the Gold Coast last Saturday, just back in trip which isn’t ideal however I couldn’t overlook her on that stat only. Plenty of other chances, race gets open from there.

Numbers: 10 – 6 – 5 – 8

Suggested Bet: PERLE DE CHOCOLAT EACH-WAY (small bet).

Race 2

Numbers dropping away in this race with scratchings. (2) CAPITAL ASSET isn’t one I’d be having my last on however he might be a chance here & seems overs. He’s the only leader in the race & figures to hold a decent gap on the favoured (11) BARBRAY in the run, I’d be surprised should he not look the one to beat at some stage in the straight. (11) BARBRAY does loom as the logical danger, perhaps they will push on early even though it’s not his usual pattern. Locally trained (7) THE LOUVRE in the mix also.

Numbers: 2 – 11 – 7 – 1

Suggested Bet: CAPITAL ASSET EACH-WAY (small bet only 2 place dividends).

Race 3

Really can’t find anything I’m keen on here. (1) BLUEPINOT & (2) LUTON HOO have the strongest form lines however the former carrying 60.5kg doesn’t excite me whilst the wide gate & big weight of the latter isn’t ideal either! Perhaps a couple of dollars each-way (11) MADALSA who has been racing very well in easier races around here of late with not a lot of luck.

Numbers: 11 – 1 – 2 – 16

Suggested Bet: Box up to 4 selections in exotics.

Race 4

Going with (7) YOWERI on an each-way basis here. Strong last start winner at Ipswich racing up on speed he dashed away once they hit the straight & kept on going to the line although the second horse was gaining late. Claim, good gate & out of the premier stable all strong positives. (10) HOWDOYOUZOU draws out & has no jock engaged as I type, suggest he might not run due to that wide gate however should he then he’s still a chance, very promising. (5) ANGEL LADDER an improver, (15) PROPAGANDA a chance if runs from the wide draw.

Numbers: 7 – 10 – 5 – 15

Suggested Bet: YOWERI EACH-WAY.

Race 5

The consistent (4) RIMBAUD looks well placed to break through. Placed second his past couple of starts he’s led & been runover late. This time around he drops 50m & with the claim will carry no more weight. (2) TRUE AMOR should be ready to improve third run back from a break, gets a claim, good gate & this is certainly no harder. (14) MELDUBIOUS is a horse I cannot catch, his latest was ok & he is consistent however when I’m on board he’s not.

Numbers: 4 – 2 – 14 – 5

Suggested Bet: RIMBAUD TO WIN.

Race 6

I’ll narrow this one down to either (9) SHELSTEIN or (10) AMUSANTES & honestly, I could go either way. Leaning to the former who is back to his pet 1200m trip of which he was a winner over two starts back. (10) AMUSEANTES draws ideally, just an even run last start off a dominant first up win, did tackle a tougher race last time out though. Poor alley for (1) MEAN APPROACH however he’s in good form & will no doubt come in a few slots post scratchings.

Numbers: 9 – 10 – 1 – 6

Suggested Bet: Backing top 2 selections to win.

Race 7

Keen on the locally trained (3) HIGH PROPHET to make it 2 straight wins & 3 from 4 overall in the Toowoomba Guineas. Really savaged the line at Doomben winning last start when clearing out from his rivals late in the race. That suggested he’d appreciate further & although it’s only 90 metres this afternoon that should be enough. (4) ASHKIRK is flying this prep winning both starts, another awkward gate however he was able to overcome that same hurdle last start with a big finish. (7) ESPERANZA let me down a couple of times last prep however off a break & with a recent 11L trial win to her credit she must be included.

Numbers: 3 – 4 – 7 – 5

Suggested Bet: HIGH PROPHET TO WIN.

Race 8

The Listed Weetwood Handicap is a very open looking race. One given is the speed is likely to be strong which could play into the hands of those runners off speed. I’m going for value putting the locally trained (4) ESJAY on top, not raced since July he tends to fire when fresh & does have the benefit of a recent trial closing off nicely into a late third. (8) LET’SFACETHEMUSIC comes into the race fresh, wide gate is interesting as he’s a horse who goes forward however note drew wide two back & hit the line hard, very hard, more versatile than we think perhaps. (1) BRAVE MONARCH is a very good horse who won at Listed & Group 2 level last prep, wide gate not ideal however just cannot be overlooked.

Numbers: 4 – 8 – 1 – 11

Suggested Bet: ESJAY EACH-WAY (small bet).

Race 9

Absolutely no pace on paper in the Cup. The Right Way is the only runner engaged with any on paced tendencies & he ‘should’ lead for fun. Will it turn out that way? quite often we see connections read the speed maps & we end up with a race run at a hectic speed. I’m going with (4) CAVALRY MAN as he is very capable of pushing on & taking up a prominent spot from the wide draw, just might find himself in the right spot at the right time. (12) DIAMOND SHOW & (10) CHILLAXING both right in the hunt however they tend to settle off speed & should the race develop into a sprint home may be up against it.

Numbers: 4 – 12 – 10 – 1

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

Race 10

NSW visitor (8) OFF THE PRESS looks well placed to break through at what will be his third run back from a break. He’s finished behind a couple of smart ones in Polyglot (won again) & the latest Decorum who is a short-priced favourite at Rosehill on Saturday. With Anna Roper’s claim will carry no weight & a dry track is ideal. (12) SIR WINNIE resumes, only lightly raced he failed only once last prep & did pull up with a slow recovery (immediately spelled), expect a big run here. (2) FACUNDO takes the step up to 1300m which on the latest run suits.

Numbers: 8 – 12 – 2 – 4

Suggested Bet: OFF THE PRESS TO WIN.




Recent Articles