Races

Chris Nelson’s Saturday Rosehill Preview

Posted on | Posted by Chris Nelson

Race 1

Group 1 racing at Rosehill on Saturday with the Golden Rose the feature. Weather will be nudging 30 degrees & the track rated good, bring it on! We get underway with a 1300m Midway where I found it hard to settle on one runner, (2) MISS SPACEGIRL, (7) BETTER LATE & (14) CALL ME SASSY the better chances imo. The former is first up with a very good fresh record, which seems to be the peak time of her preparation, good draw with Siena Grima to steer I’ll lean her way. The other pair have decent form; they just concern me at a strongly run 1300m.

Numbers: 2 – 7 – 14 – 15

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

Race 2

Going with (8) ZOU FORCE in the Highway, never on the track here last start he toughed it out right to the line holding down fourth after being entitled to fold up down the straight. Expect him handy in the run from the better draw today & I’d suggest the rise in trip is a positive. (5) BLUEISH HUE draws out however has the Dunn/Rawiller/Highway combination in his corner, stiff at Ipswich last start. (6) GIDDY UP GRIFF hit the line well last start which was here in the same race as (3) EXTREME, both are racing well & right in the hunt once again.

Numbers: 8 – 5 – 6 – 3

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

Race 3

Have to be with the third-up (2) BELLA MONTAGNA who comes through the Newcastle Cup last Friday when third behind the very smart Aethelwulf. Her strike rate isn’t great however she gets in very light here & that form line is a stronger one than her main rival (1) SO YOU ARE who will have to give her 5.5kg in weight also. (5) FERNAO continues to race well however just doesn’t win, gets his chance close the margin on (1) SO YOU ARE with a 1kg weight swing for the 1.75L last start defeat.

Numbers: 2 – 1 – 5 – 4

Suggested Bet: BELLA MONTAGNA TO WIN.

Race 4

(3) STARZINTHEIREYES gets the nod here however I’m not overly excited about the price on offer in early markets. He was very good first up sitting wide & running home hard to beat all bar the winner, reverse the runs & you’d likely reverse the result. Up 3kg he will be suited by the additional trip & does map well. (8) MISTER RIZZ an interesting runner, bolted in at Hawkesbury first up beating Grafton Street who won at Warwick Farm midweek, yes this is harder however he could only win & he did that easily. No knock (10) ANTHRACITE who won’t spend a penny in the run & is in peak form.

Numbers: 3 – 8 – 10 – 9

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

Race 5

Tough to tip against (6) DECORUM who resumed with a strong finishing win at Randwick first up. He steps to 1400m which is ideal, draws a better gate which will see him settle closer & drops a kilo & a half. He’s also unbeaten second-up, plenty of ticks! (1) MR CHAPLIN is a big watch fresh, his form since coming from the UK is very good being defeated only once & he wasn’t far away, cannot knock. (3) CROSS TASMAN who just missed out first up has been kept fresh, another unbeaten when second up.

Numbers: 6 – 1 – 3 – 4

Suggested Bet: DECORUM TO WIN.

Race 6

The Group 3 Heritage, can I tip (1) BLUE DOOR again? I’ve been with her both runs this prep, she’s had her chance to win on each occasion yet has found one better. No doubt she will look the winner at some stage in the straight however her closing sectionals haven’t been strong suggesting she’s likely going to prove vulnerable once again. (3) OMOLONG has won both starts albeit in easier company, not raced since July he’s had a couple of lead-up trials & was soft to the line making ground the latest. One of the pair should win, I’ll lean his way. Can make a case for all the others to be placed.

Numbers: 3 – 1 – 2 – 7

Suggested Bet: OMOLONG TO WIN (small bet).

Race 7

The Group 2 Golden Pendant sees (1) LAZZURA go around second-up & she is lethal at that stage of her preps. I recall being a little disappointed when she was beaten first up last campaign however she improved plenty to land the Group 1 Coolmore next start before beating all bar the flying Beiwacht in the All Aged at her third & final run before spelling, she’s the one to beat here. The very consistent (4) GANGSTA GRANNY disappointed first up in the Missile however quickly put that effort behind her in the Sheraco, definite chance. (3) VERONA ROSE is always thereabouts.

Numbers: 1 – 4 – 3 – 2

Suggested Bet: LAZZURA TO WIN.

Race 8

The feature of the day is the Group 1 Golden Rose over 1400m where the Golden Slipper winner (1) GUEST HOUSE who won so impressively first up is the well fancied favourite. Absolutely no knock on the horse however I can’t take the short odds about him in a race where there look to be a few serious winning chances. (5) ST GOTTHARD was narrowly beaten first up by (4) WARWOVEN in the prelude to this race a fortnight back. Both were tidy efforts however the former just gave me the impression he’s going to really enjoy 1400m whereas I’m not as convinced about (4) WARWOVEN. The Waller/J. Mac combo doesn’t hurt either. (3) TRON BOLT was good sectionally in the same race, he’ll definitely enjoy further however likely gives away too much start from the poor draw.

Numbers: 5 – 1 – 4 – 3

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

Race 9

The Group 2 Shannon is up next & I found it a very, very tough race. I’ve come back to the 9yo (1) PRIVATE EYE who didn’t fire second up (had excuses) however was good when resuming & should be able to bounce back to his better form here. With a nice run on speed he should get his chance. (2) SKYHOOK & (6) MAGNATEAR quinellaed the Theo Marks here two weeks ago, both were first up & both will surely have further improvement to come. My knockout chance is (3) ESTADIO MESTALLA who clocked some slick sectionals home when resuming, second up record doesn’t make for great reading though.

Numbers: 1 – 2 – 6 – 3

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

Race 10

This final race looks an absolute raffle. I’ll go with the resuming (1) FARNICLE however I’m well aware he’s 350 days between runs suggesting the market will be our best guide to his chances/fitness levels. Latest trial was sound though & he draws to park close enough to strike. (2) KIMBERLEY SECRETS lands a good gate, claim & is racing very well, luckless last start she won’t be caught wide this time around. 11 & 15 in the mix.

Numbers: 1 – 2 – 11 – 15

Suggested Bet: FARNICLE EACH-WAY if not a drifter (small bet).




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