Races

Chris Nelson’s Saturday Kembla Range Preview

Posted on | Posted by Chris Nelson

RACE 1

Gong Day at Kembla on Saturday with the 1-million-dollar feature to be run later in the day (Race 7). The very consistent TOURISTIC gets the nod in this opening race, he may only have won 3 of 19 outings to date however he’s also been in the placings on 8 other separate occasions. He should be peaking third run back from a break & his form out to this trip last prep was good. LYRICAL GANGSTER is improving with every run, his last to first win on the Kensington track at his latest outing over 1800m suggests 2000m is now ideal.

Numbers: 1 – 10 – 6 – 4

Suggested Bet: TOURISTIC TO WIN.

RACE 2

Usual difficult looking Highway… or is it? Highway specialist Matt Dunn sends around last start winner TRIBECA STAR who won at Rosehill in the same grade as today with 59kg steaming down the outside. Up he goes to 61.5kg today however with the inside alley he should gain a comfortable run having to do zero work until called upon in the straight. UNRELENTING drew the carpark first up & wasn’t far away, second up fared better at the gates & beat all bar the first couple. Almost against the rail today he’ll get his chance. ZOUATICA races well fresh, he’ll be trying to run his rivals off their legs.

Numbers: 2 – 4 – 5 – 7

Suggested Bet: TRIBECA STAR TO WIN (small bet).

RACE 3

Good, competitive BM78 this one, some nice types engaged. I’ll give SMASHING EAGLE one more chance & you can back him each-way. Super consistent however mostly without winning he draws well, that doesn’t mean he needs to make use of the alley, it does suggest he won’t be back last though. Clear running can be an issue however if he finds some late, look out. CONTEMPORARY draws well, gut feel is he’s looking for further however still very much in this. WITH YOUR BLESSING & PLUNDERING the others with definite winning chances.

Numbers: 7 – 8 – 3 – 6

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 4

DOLLAR MAGIC is fit & draws the inside gate here which will suit as he’s an on-pacer who is yet to miss a placing over this 1200m trip & that includes a win. He’ll carry no more weight than last start & should take plenty of running down. MISS HELLFIRE comes out of the same last start race which was a sprint home, she did well & will be better suited with more tempo about. SHORT SHORTS off a let-up with a strong trial win under the belt can run well also, market watch.

Numbers: 4 – 3 – 1 – 6

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 5

VICTORY LANE beat all bar PEACE OFFICER (also engaged here) first up, he then drew consecutive bad gates & was trapped wide yet neither run was poor, the latest was in the rich Four Pillars with 59.5kg. Drawn better today back to this grade with less weight I’d expect a forward showing at good odds. CUBAN GRANCHICO should be peaking third up & will appreciate the step up in distance.

Numbers: 7 – 4 – 5 – 11

Suggested Bet: VICTORY LANE EACH-WAY.

RACE 6

I’m with the resuming TAZARAL who created a good impression when last in work. He won his first two starts before running into a flying Just Fine third-up, that one then went on to win at Group 3 level before landing the Group 1 Metropolitan. He’s really hit his straps now & should prove very hard to beat. Must include LOCH EAGLE who bolted in last start after a solid run prior from a wide gate. DEFECIT ran second behind LOCH EAGLE & was first up, fitter & meets that one 2.5kg better at the weights.

Numbers: 5 – 1 – 11 – 3

Suggested Bet: TAZARAL TO WIN (looking for market support).

RACE 7

Time for the million-dollar Gong where the favourite & rightly so is the Chris Waller trained OSIPENKO. His form is superior coming out of a bunch of Group 1 races however he hasn’t raced for 7 weeks which throws some concern over his fitness levels… perhaps? I’m going to stick with the ever-consistent CEPHEUS on an each-way basis, again he draws well & again he will land the box seat run. The one-month gap between outings leading into the Big Dance likely worked a little against him, not the case this time around. DETONATOR JACK looks close.

Numbers: 1 – 3 – 9 – 11

Suggested Bet: CEPHEUS EACH-WAY

RACE 8

He doesn’t win too often DRAGONSTONE however this race really does set up well for him. There’s plenty of speedy types engaged which will ensure a hectic tempo out front & from the good draw he doesn’t need to be back last. His form of late is around horses who have gone on to finish close up behind the star mare Imperatriz, can’t get much better than that! HARD TO SAY is flying, has to deal with a wide gate & tougher opposition however winning form can’t be knocked & he’s won 4 straight. Tougher task for the resuming BRUDENELL however he draws well, is lightly weighted & has plenty of upside.

Numbers: 6 – 9 – 12 – 7

Suggested Bet: DRAGONSTONE EACH-WAY

RACE 9

Not sure where EMPEROR will turn up over the weekend as he has dual accepted for both here & Doomben. Wherever that may be though I’m firmly in his corner as he’s a horse going places & his first up win did nothing to dispel my opinion. Sitting off speed he just cruised past the leaders when asked to go winning with plenty in the tank. No knock HEADWALL who is lightly raced with a good record & has trialled having won a recent heat. No trials for the resuming SQUAD who will be very sharp, that was the case last prep as well when a first & second up winner, don’t let the lack of a public hit out put you off.

Numbers: 3 – 5 – 9 – 8

Suggested Bet: EMPEROR TO WIN

RACE 10

Hoping CONTEMPORARY goes around in this race & not the earlier one as I’m of the opinion he’s looking for 1400m which he gets here. Liked the way he found the line last start at Rosehill & he was also good to the line first up; this looks ideal. The resuming CRAFTY EAGLE comes up with a good draw & has an enviable fresh record, I’d be surprised if he’s not right in amongst it at the business end of the race. FALL FOR CINDY just cannot draw a gate.

Numbers: 17 – 4 – 12 – 11

Suggested Bet: CONTEMPORARY EACH-WAY

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