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Robbie Von’s F1 – Azerbaijan Grand Prix Preview

Posted on | Posted by Robbie Von

A RACE ON SATURDAY NIGHT, A TRACK THAT FLOPPED, AND A KID WHO WON’T STOP WINNING

The brand new Madring sadly didn’t deliver. Processional, barely any overtaking, and F1 is already planning changes to three parts of the circuit. We’ll give it a pass for year 1 but Spain has some work to do.

Lando Norris did everything right but the day didn’t go his way. Pole, a six second lead, completely in control, then a Virtual Safety Car on lap 14 fell at exactly the wrong moment. Antonelli pitted under it, Norris missed the window and a slow stop dropped him to third. Rotten luck, nothing more. Verstappen second, Leclerc fourth, Russell fifth. And Lewis Hamilton lasted seven laps before his brakes failed, so that Schumacher record chase we talked about was over almost before it started.

LET’S TALK ABOUT KIMI FOR A SECOND

Eight wins. Twelve podiums. Eighty-one points clear. He’s 20 years old.

What gets me isn’t the raw speed, it’s that he keeps turning up and getting the job done no matter what the weekend throws at him. Started 19th at Monza and won it. In Madrid he didn’t have the fastest car and won that too. And then he gets out and says Lando deserved it. No gloating, no spin, just an honest read on the race.

Champions find a way even when the car or the circumstances aren’t there. That’s exactly what this kid is doing, week after week. Whatever else happens this season, take a moment to appreciate it, because we’re watching something special.

WHERE THE CHAMPIONSHIP STANDS

Antonelli: 292 points. Russell: 211. Hamilton: 191. Norris: 186. Leclerc: 167. Verstappen: 145. Piastri: 120.

Nine races to go. At TABtouch we have him at $1.03 for the title, which is about as close to a formality as betting markets get. Ask Nick Daicos.

WHY IS AZERBAIJAN ON SATURDAY?

The race runs Saturday 26 September, with practice on Thursday and qualifying Friday. The reason is that Sunday is Memorial Day in Azerbaijan, a national day of mourning for those killed in the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. The promoter and government asked F1 to move it, and they agreed. It’s a one-off and Baku returns to Sunday next year. Works out nicely for us though. Race start is 7pm Saturday night WA time. We can hopefully follow the purple haze from the footy to the race track!

THE BAKU CITY CIRCUIT

After the Madring, this is exactly what this week needs. Six kilometres of Baku street circuit. A narrow, twisting section through the Old City where the walls are close enough to touch, then one of the longest flat-out stretches in Formula 1. Norris hit 350km/h in Madrid and he’ll go quicker here. Baku delivers chaos almost every single year. Safety cars, red flags, big crashes, weird results. If you want the opposite of last weekend, this is it. This track is home to Daniel Ricciardo’s epic 2017 lunge to overtake Massa, Hulkenberg and Stroll in one fell swoop, and he went on to win it from 10th.

THE TEAMS

Mercedes

Antonelli favourite at $2.00. Everything above applies. Russell at $7.50 has been comprehensively beaten by his teammate all season and badly needs something here.

McLaren

Norris at $4.50 and he’s owed one. He had the quickest car in Madrid and lost it to a VSC he had no control over. On a track that rewards straight line speed and bravery, he’s the best value on the board. Piastri at $21.00 is still searching.

Red Bull

Verstappen at $7.50. Second in Madrid, six podiums this year and still no win. Baku has historically been kind to Red Bull and Max thrives when a race gets messy. Worth a look.

Ferrari

Hamilton $9.00, Leclerc $11.00. Leclerc has been quick at Baku plenty of times without much to show for it. Hamilton just needs a clean weekend after Madrid.

The one to watch at the back

Cadillac still have zero points 14 races into their first season. Sergio Perez is hoping the upgraded Ferrari engine finally goes in the car at Baku and admits the rest of the season will likely be painful. Baku has been good to him in the past, so if it’s ever going to click, it’s here.

PLAYS FOR THIS WEEKEND

Lando Norris to Win – $4.50 (quickest car in Madrid)

Kimi Antonelli to Win – $2.00

Max Verstappen to Win – $7.50 (loves chaos on a chaos circuit)

Happy punting!

Odds correct at time of publication. TABtouch markets available now.




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