Races

Chris Nelson’s Saturday Eagle Farm Preview

Posted on | Posted by Chris Nelson

RACE 1

Group 1 racing continues at Eagle Farm on Saturday with the Queensland Derby & Kingsford Smith Cup the features. Rain is forecast for Friday & Saturday, just how much we get remains to be seen, hopefully not much. (7) DEMON DARB looks very well placed in this opening race & should get the day underway on a winning note. He won here over this trip 3 starts back & in fact his only subpar run of late was two back when out of the placings, there were definite excuses on that occasion. (2) VICTORY WIN will appreciate getting away from very heavy ground, well it shouldn’t be in that range, clearly struggled on it his latest. Big weight for (1) SIBAAQ however he brings the best form.

Numbers: 7 – 2 – 1 – 4

Suggested Bet: DEMON DARN TO WIN.

RACE 2

Keen to see what the market does with the resuming (4) HARBOURMASTER who began his last prep in a blaze of glory winning 3 of his first 4 outings including first up. Given an easy time in a recent trial running on late he gets ‘Willo’ to steer & if ready to go can get away with the race. (1) REDFORD comes back plenty in grade, he really shouldn’t be the price he’s gone up in early markets. (2) DEEP RESPECT was good first up, flat second up, wouldn’t be sacking just yet if at all.

Numbers: 4 – 1 – 2 – 14

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 3

There’s no shortage of races today with a stack of interstate form lines & this is the first of them. I’m going to stay local & tip the in-form (15) DILLIAN who will have to handle a hefty rise in grade however the ease of his past couple suggest he can do that. Should the rain come his chances will definitely improve. (14) CAMPALDINO maps to lead for fun, in form could take a ton of catching should it pan out that way. Southern raiders (2) HEZASHOCKA & (3) IMMEDIACY in the mix also.

Numbers: 15 – 14 – 2 – 3

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 4

(1) TAVI TIME should land a perfect spot from the good draw here in a race which contains no speed whatsoever. Jennilala may end up in front & she’s probably more effective ridden a little behind the lead? (1) TAVI TIME will be right there & clearly brings the best form lines having zoomed home to win the Scone Cup at his latest start. (2) REGAL AZMON has really struck form, finished on from a mile back to score at Morphettville & is in a very smart yard, they place their horses extremely well. (3) BANKER’S CHOICE in the mix, (9) RISING PACIFIC is the track specialist, needs it reasonably dry though.

Numbers: 1 – 2 – 3 – 9

Suggested Bet: TAVI TIME TO WIN.

RACE 5

Staying local in the Group 2 Sires Produce putting (1) GRAFTERBURNERS on top. His run in the Spirit Of Boom at Doomben was terrific sitting 4 deep the trip, he gave plenty to the line just feeling the pinch late. Wide draw here doesn’t really worry me as he’ll go back, find cover then charge down the outside. (4) PRINCE TYCOON was terrific at the Gold Coast sitting wide throughout, he wasn’t entitled to run on as well as he did, should he back up ok here he’s right in it. No knock (2) GALLO NERO or (3) COOL ARCHIE.

Numbers: 1 – 4 – 2 – 3

Suggested Bet: GRAFTERBURNERS EACH-WAY.

RACE 6

The winner of this race gets a free ticket into the Stradbroke in a fortnights time, plenty to play for. I’m with the very exciting (2) ANGEL CAPITAL who resumes for a new stable (Chris Waller). Should the rain stay away I’m keen, should it not then I’m on the fence as although he’s a soft track winner it was on a (5). He owns a strong turn of foot & if conditions suit look out, if not perhaps look elsewhere! (10) RAIKKONEN did a good job fresh, was always going to take good improvement from the run (stable did advise that) & here he is here, must include. (7) BOOMTOWN BOSS can bounce back; he’s the track specialist. Host of other winning chances.

Numbers: 2 – 10 – 7 – 15

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 7

Group 1 Kingsford Smith Cup is a cracking sprint as you’d expect at this level, finding the winner is no easy task though & the weather may play a significant role. The first obstacle when doing the form for the race is the lack of pace, on my map Zarastro leads for fun, perhaps Rise At Dawn will push on however that’s it! J. Mac will be awake up to that & no doubt send (10) JOLIESTAR forward from her wide gate & land a prominent spot, from there she’ll get her chance however should the rain come I have my doubts about her, same with Zarastro. I thought (12) BENEDETTA was good in the 10,000, she just raced a bit flat on the turn & missed the boat there. (11) KIMOCHI is right in it, the wet won’t be any concern for her. What a race!

Numbers: 10 – 12 – 11 – 2

Suggested Bet: JOLIESTAR TO WIN (if track on better side of soft).

RACE 8

Just as with the previous Group 1 the Queensland Derby is an absolute lottery! Originally I was quite happy to pot the form out of the Rough Habit a fortnight back however I’m not so much now & have put the ‘roughie’ (8) DEEP FOCUS on top who finished second in that race. Although only lightly raced he just keeps on finding the line suggesting 2400m is well within his grasp, he’s building whereas many of his rivals are coming through arduous campaigns & may well be looking for the paddock. (17) BELLE DETELLE & (1) FIRM AGREEMENT both fit that category, yes they have the best form lines however are they over the top? (10) MAISON LOIUS isn’t, he’s the one with upside.

Numbers: 8 – 17 – 1 – 10

Suggested Bet: DEEP FOCUS EACH-WAY.

RACE 9

We round out the big day with a Listed affair for the girls where I’m leaning to the consistent (7) KIN who has put in a couple of solid efforts this prep. She’s sat deep at each of those runs yet still found the line strongly, J. Mac sticks which is a tip within itself! The Gollan pair (6) COMRADE ROSA & (8) FLOOZIE both right in it, the former is building nicely whereas the latter is absolutely flying this time in, shoots for 4 straight here just raising the bar with each win.

Numbers: 7 – 6 – 8 – 10

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

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