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David Shortte’s AFL Round 5 Preview

Posted on | Posted by David Shortte

THURSDAY

Adelaide v Carlton, Adelaide Oval, 5.40pm

Adelaide play host to Carlton to launch Gather Round for 2026 and this looks the ideal opportunity for them to kick start their season. They beat Collingwood in round 1 but have since lost to the Western Bulldogs by 6 points, to Geelong in Geelong by 8 points and to Fremantle by 2 points. I rate all three sides they have lost to narrowly and in reality they could have won any of those games with an ounce of luck. They welcome back Rory Laird, Mitch Hinge and Isaac Cumming here and I expect them to be dialled right up for this contest.

For the third time in four matches this season Carlton coughed up a tidy lead to be beaten by the Kangas last week. This looks one of their toughest challenges for the season to date and they will be without key defender Jacob Weitering.

With no Weitering for Carlton this looks laid on for Riley Thilthorpe to cut loose up front for the Crows and for Adelaide to remind the competition what they are capable of.

VERDICT: Adelaide to win by 37 points

Same Game Multi: James Peatling to get 15 or more disposals, Rory Laird and Jagga Smith to get 20 or more disposals and Riley Thilthorpe to kick 3 or more goals @ $3.70*

FRIDAY

Collingwood v Fremantle, Adelaide Oval, 5.40pm

The Pies copped a 54 point beating up at the GABBA at the hands of the Lions last week but that was minus Nick Daicos who was a late out with calf soreness and in fairness they won’t be the last team to be humbled by the back to back premiers in season 2026. Nick Daicos and star veteran Scott Pendlebury are expected to return for this one.

Fremantle dug deep to sneak home by 2 points against the Crows in Adelaide on Friday in what was an important win on the road. They back up at the Adelaide Oval here and again key ball winners Brayshaw, Serong and Reid loom large as does the man with the mitts Josh Treacy.

I like the way the Dockers are going about it in 2026 and while the Pies will pose a threat I’ll stick with Fremantle to continue on their winning ways.

VERDICT: Fremantle by 11 points.

Same Game Multi: Luke Jackson to get 15 or more disposals, Murphy Reid to get 20 or more disposals, Josh Treacy to kick 2 or more goals and Isiah Dudley to kick a goal or more @ $3.60*

SATURDAY

North Melbourne v Brisbane, Barossa Park, 10.35am

North Melbourne have had their best start to a season for many years to sit 3 wins and 1 loss after their first 4 matches. That said they have had a friendly draw with their wins against Port, Essendon and Carlton and this right here is a serious acid test.

Despite losing their first 2 matches of the season the Lions have quickly squared the ledger with two impressive wins and their 9 goal smacking of Collingwood last week was full of authority. They will welcome back Harris Andrews from suspension for this and there is talk that Hugh McLuggage is close to a return.

The Kangaroos have clearly shown some signs of improvement but they run in to the School Bully here and there are no Teachers in sight to break up the scrap. I expect the Lions to get the job done in brutal fashion.

VERDICT: Brisbane by 47 points.

Same Game Multi: Brisbane to win by 16 points or more, Luke Parker to get 20 or more disposals, Dane Zorko to get 25 or more disposals and Logan Morris to kick 2 or more goals @ $3.50*

Essendon v Melbourne, Adelaide Oval, 11.15am

The Bombers are yet to taste success after 4 rounds but in last week’s 34 point loss to the Western Bulldogs their last 3 quarters of football were at least competitive. That said it would take a fair reversal of form for them to prevail in this one.

Melbourne have had a very positive start to their campaign under new Coach Steven King and their ball movement has been crisp. Their 3-1 record has surprised many but they are playing with real zest and this looks a super chance to bank another 4 points.

I like Melbourne to win this and put a heavy score on the board in the process.

VERDICT: Melbourne by 37 points.

Same Game Multi: Melbourne to win, Caleb Windsor to have 15 or more disposals and Max Gawn, Jack Steele and Archie Roberts to all have 20 or more disposals @ $3.05*

Sydney v Gold Coast, Norwood Oval, 12.15pm

Sydney absolutely torched West Coast last week at Optus Stadium, eventually recording a 128 point victory. Heeney and Curnow led the way with 4 goals apiece and they once again loom as one of the more reliable teams in the competition.

Gold Coast suffered their first loss of the season against Melbourne last week but their first three wins were all first class. Matt Rowell is sure to be better for his first game back and spearhead Ben King leads the Coleman Medal race with 19 goals in just 4 games.

Two very talented sides on display here and I don’t have much between them. It’s a flip of the coin but I’ll take Sydney by 5 points.

VERDICT: Sydney by 5 points.

Same Game Multi: Either team to win by 39 points or less, Jai Serong to get 15 or more disposals, and Ben King to kick 3 goals or more @ $3.45*

Hawthorn v Western Bulldogs, Adelaide Oval, 5.35pm

The Hawks are on the 5 day back up here after prevailing in an absolute classic at the MCG on Easter Monday where they beat the Cats by a point. Nick Watson brought his wand to the ground with 3 magical goals and the veteran goal sneak Jack Gunston also chimed in with 3. James Sicily is back in tip top order marshalling his troops off half back too.

The Western Bulldogs did what they had to against Essendon prevailing by 34 points but it has come at a cost with Ruckman Tim English and late withdrawal Ed Richards set to miss here with knee issues. Tom Liberatore and Arty Jones will also be missing with hamstring concerns. Dogs Skipper Marcus Bontempelli is now in to $2.50 to win the Brownlow and with some of the key personnel on the sidelines they will again rely heavily on the Bont if they are to prevail here.

I like both of these sides – they play up tempo, entertaining footy and both have winning records. The Dogs however have some significant outs and the Hawks have a quick back up leaving me uncertain. I’ll go the Hawks in a cliff hanger.

VERDICT: Hawthorn by 2 points.

Same Game Multi: Either team to win by 39 points or less, Jack Ginnivan to get 15 or more disposals and Nick Watson to kick 2 or more goals @ $3.35*

SUNDAY

Geelong v West Coast, Norwood Oval, 10.30am

Geelong went down to the Hawks by 1 point at the MCG on Easter Monday in what will go down as one of the games of the season. They lose no admirers from that effort and will appreciate running in to West Coast here.

The Eagles won 2 games in a row prior to a demoralizing 128 point thrashing at the hands of Sydney last week. It is the nature of young lists to have up and down moments and struggles with consistency but the manner of the defeat caught me a little by surprise.

Geelong have a class and experience edge here and should win comfortably.

VERDICT: Geelong by 44 points.

Same Game Multi: Geelong to win by 25 points or more, Gryan Miers and Bailey Smith to get 25 disposals or more and Shannon Neale to kick 2 goals or more @ $3.75*

GWS v Richmond, Barossa Park, 1.15pm

GWS have had a rotten run with injuries but so too have their opponents Richmond and this sets up nicely for GWS to bring up their second victory of the season here.

The Tigers were convincingly beaten by Port last week and they would need to improve sharply on that effort to be in with a chance in this one.

The Giants should win with a bit left in the tank.

VERDICT: GWS by 37 points.

Same Game Multi: I’ll go with GWS to win by 16 points or more and ball magnets Clayton Oliver, Lachie Ash. Lachie Whitfield and Finn Callaghan to all get 25 or more disposals @ $4.*

Port Adelaide v Saint Kilda, Adelaide Oval, 5.15pm

Port Adelaide have a 2 win 2 loss record after defeating Richmond by 42 points last weekend. It was a comfortable win and they return home for the final match at Gather Round for 2026.

The Saints will be fresh after having the bye last weekend and these are the sorts of games they need to win to justify their off season spending spree.

I think the Saints can get it done here.

VERDICT: Saint Kilda by 13 points

Same Game Multi: Either team to win by 39 points or less, Max Hall and Liam Ryan to both kick 1 or more goals and Mitch Georgiades to kick 2 or more goals @ $4.25*

*Odds correct at the time of publication.

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