Races

Scott Embry’s Saturday Belmont Preview

Posted on | Posted by Scott Embry

RACE 1

PAINT IT RED was simply too brilliant for them at Ascot first-up and will be on another jump and run mission here. She drops down to 56kg and she got through the going really well at Bunbury on a Soft6 to suggest that no matter how much rain we get in the days preceding the Belmont meeting she’ll be comfortable in the going. LONG SERVICE LEAF had to sprint really hard to get the job done first-up when the race nearly looked lost as he desperately searched for clear galloping room. Once he got clear he attacked the line powerfully and now gets a deserving crack at a 3 year old Saturday event. HOT SEA ran third in a Group 3 on debut as a 2 year old when crunched from $7 into $4 in betting and then at his second outing he was rolled in a maiden at $1.14. Clearly talented, but has had a throat op and will likely be crossed early. ETERNAL WINE bounced back late in her previous preparation after a couple of lacklustre runs early.

Numbers: 6 – 3 – 5 – 4

Suggested Bet – PAINT IT RED WIN

RACE 2

BASSET HOUND was scratched at $1.50 on Wednesday in a C1 to instead head to this race on Saturday. He’s now a month between runs and will get off the speed but he has a real X-Factor about him and the respect he is being shown early in his career is astounding. There were multiple horses who initially accepted in this race and named riders before bailing out once they realised he was racing here and not Wednesday. OVERDRIVE was stiff fresh. Watching the head on Stewards vision they surely considered lodging a protest with the interference she copped in the concluding stages? Regardless, she was a strong return and drops 2.5kg and can roll forward into a commanding spot. DEFINE BEAUTIFUL was allowed to run in her first outing for Luke Fernie at Ascot on 8 November. First-up, no trial – jump and run? MAGNIQUE is lengths better than what she produced fresh.

Numbers: 7 – 3 – 4 – 1

Suggested Bet – BASSET HOUND WIN

RACE 3

ENCROACHING was super on debut. He did find cover at a few stages in running, but for the majority of the race he was wide and working and eventually left a sitting duck to be run down by key rival She’s A Splinter. Think this is the race where Lucy Fiore can ride him aggressively early and look to cross down to the fence and take control of this race early. Looked really comfortable leading in his barrier trial and didn’t see a lot of speed and/or pressure on paper. MYSTIC SMILE is on the 7 day spin from a 1000m dash last weekend where she again just couldn’t get comfortable in running. Like the visors on, love the step to 1300. SPIRIT OF DAN attacked the line really strongly in the same Encroaching/She’s A Spliter race at Pinjarra. SHE’S A SPLINTER nearly pinched a maiden first-up at 50-1 and then duly saluted second-up. Maps to get every possible and Metro Brown’s yard is flying.

Numbers: 2 – 7 – 4 – 6

Suggested Bet – ENCROACHING WIN

RACE 4

TOO DARDY is a more than capable animal on his day. He won brilliantly first-up at 1000m two preparations ago (off 315 days) and even won a 78+ 1000 last campaign at Ascot. He’s first-up, no trial so you’re taking him on trust, however, he’s got a great map and goes around double figures. DESERT WHISPER is rapid. She’ll burn her way to the front in the first few strides and be in front for a long way, the query though is whether the 59kg might just get hold of her late? She’s a tiny mare and the only time she’s carried 59kg previously she got the staggers late when run down by Black Ora and Keep Ita Mystery. Proven short course sprinter, proven wet tracker – but likely odds on which looks thin. THE CALABRESE can really ping when saved up for one late run. GINNIVAN has no doubt been targeted at this race for a while.

Numbers: 5 – 1 – 7 – 2

Suggested Bet – TOO DARDY EACHWAY

RACE 5

ANTIQUE STAR was simply screaming out for ground. At her first five outings of the campaign she looked a bit dour and didn’t have the same change up speed as she demonstrated in previous preparations, but once they got her out over 2200 she really thrived and won by a soft 2.5L margin. Same track, same grade, Soft6 winner, Soft7 winner, 2x Heavy8 placed, only rising half a kilo start to start – she should be winning again. CANDLELIGHT SUPPER might need one more run to bring her on but did run second to Antique Star last prep fourth-up and gets another 2kg on her. I LOVE YOUR SMILE is set a bit of a task second-up, off 7 days, straight out to 2100m. Proved stayer at this level. DARK LOOKS is always there abouts but rarely in the winner’s circle.

Numbers: 1 – 4 – 2 – 3

Suggested Bet – ANTIQUE STAR WIN

RACE 6

ROPE THEM IN will thrive in the conditions and can either roll straight to the top or park up in the breeze and control the race. Expect that they’ll throw the anchor in the middle stages and then the Pontiff will pull the trigger on straightening and really look to pinch a break on Western Empire. Sets up for a fascinating clash. WESTERN EMPIRE and the wet track – that will be the talking point for most in the 2026 Hyperion Stakes. 2025 Strickland Stakes – Heavy9 – beaten 3.8L at $2.05, 2022 Makybe Diva Stakes – Soft7 – beaten 6.4L at $8.50 (though to be fair to him that is a Group 1 WFA). Amazingly they are the only two genuinely wet tracks that he has seen in his life and so no doubt after drawing barrier 13/13 there will be plenty looking to take him on. I believe in the King but the map does look tricky? GINGER BAKER seems to bob up and run a placing in one of these Winter WFA races every season. MAGNIFICENT ANDY is racing like he wants ground now.

Numbers: 3 – 1 – 8 – 2

Suggested Bet – ROPE THEM IN WIN

Same Race Multi –  Rope Them In (Top 2) + Ginger Baker (Top 4)

Going a little wider by adding Ginger Baker to finish Top 4 into the SRM which alongside key hope Rope Them In to finish Top 2 will multiply out to a juicy price. Ginger Baker runs well in these races at odds every year and thrives on winter wet track racing. Rope Them In can roll forward and gives a big kick on straightening.

RACE 7

MT SHIRATAKU sat parked three deep the trip first-up and still went within a short head of victory. Second-up he draws barrier 4/12 rather than barrier 8/8 and should simply get a far more economical passage. Loved his barrier trials leading into the campaign and given the 2kg weight swing on Go Go Grommet expect he’ll be able to safely turn the tables on him. DIAMONDSNRUBIES may well loom the biggest threat. She’s only coming out of a 52+ at York but she was $7.50 into $2.50 and absolutely bolted in. Last time she raced in a Westspeed Platinum she jumped $4.40 and she can either lead or box seat. GO GO GROMMET deserved that win and like Mt Shirataku looks like enjoying a softer time of it this time around as well. FLAGSHIP showed something last start.

Numbers: 3 – 11 – 2 – 8

Suggested Bet – MT SHIRATAKU WIN

RACE 8 

HERAULT and SPELLBORN are both lightly raced and super progressive 3 year olds taking on the older horses and reading between the lines you’d think that they’re both here to: 1) get out to 1600m; but 2) avoid running into the likes of Ladies Pro, Ourgirlcanrun, Like Clockwork etc etc in the Raconteur Stakes next weekend. HERAULT is the starting point and a deserving favourite. He lumped 60kg to an effortless victory from the breeze second-up in a C3 1400 and will only get better deeper into his campaign and over further. Aquanita Stakes – Belmont Classic, watch out. SPELLBORN did a super job to get within half a length after dragging right back in the much hyped Ladies Pro race and now drops 3kg into a 60+ Graduation. Great placement and looks to be screaming out for a mile. GIBRALTAR GOLD was climbing over them last week bolting in behind. MUSGRAVE caught the eye first-up at odds.

Numbers: 2 – 12 – 15 – 3

Suggested Bet – HERAULT WIN

RACE 9

WINEACLOCKSUMWHERE recorded a near 2L Personal Best figure last start when beating Timeless Gem and Battle Commander in a 72+ 1400 where they never came up for air. It was a test of attrition and he was simply the strongest animal in that line-up. He can work forward and put himself into the contest again and is an under-rated animal. WUBIN GOLD has the well publicised outstanding second-up record, but more importantly considering the price differential – she (and Supersession) were as good (if not better?) than Drakaina first-up. Loves it wet and can get a soft run three back the fence. DRAKAINA held her own fresh and was first-up, no trial so should only be fitter. She’s Soft6 and Soft7 placed in NZ and can join the three deep line. NOTEWORTHY won first-up 1400m last prep at odds. 3x trials that prep though, none this time around.

Numbers: 14 – 11 – 9 – 15

Suggested Bet – WINEACLOCKSUMWHERE EACHWAY

Quaddie (Race 6 – 9)

1,3

2,3,11

2,12

1,9,11,14,15,16

Market Market



Recent Articles