Races

Scott Embry’s Saturday Carnarvon Preview

Posted on | Posted by Scott Embry

RACE 1

HILLSIDE MONARCH is having his first start on the dirt which is a massive query and a huge unknown, however, his effortless win in his maiden at $1.50 at Geraldton suggests that he’s a horse with a lot of upside. Did refuse to load at Geraldton on 4 November but has trialled up well a month ago at Geraldton and he’s in the right camp to be getting through the track conditions. ADDICTIVE DREAM also joins the Graeme Hammarquist yard and showed a bit of dash at Lark Hill. Expect they’ll be looking to use it here to lead rather than box seat at her first dirt outing. SOARING SOLO was crunched in betting at the opening meeting but was never in the race. Respect the volume of money that came her way and could be a different story if she crossed them early. PRECAST is deep into a preparation and tends to get back in her races but a watch.

Numbers: 5 – 3 – 2 – 7

Suggested Bet – HILLSIDE MONARCH WIN

RACE 2

VIOLENT had her debut at Geraldton a month ago at 40-1 when getting within half a length of Solar Crest late. The concern with that effort was that she was a little slowly away from the machine – which you absolutely don’t want to be at your first dirt outing – but if she can stay out of trouble she should run well here. WILD GOSSIP really caught the eye at her first outing for Albert Bowtell back in April. Shades on and often first time on the dirt draw wide is better than drawn low. REINCARNATED is easily the quickest horse in the race in the first 200m so he should be able to bounce straight on the lead and stay out of trouble. ALL KINGS got a mile out of his ground first-up off a long lay off. Hopefully jumps better here so he can settle up a bit closer. Got through the going well enough late.

Numbers: 12 – 7 – 4 – 2

Suggested Bet – VIOLENT WIN

RACE 3

MYSTERY MINUTE ran second in the C1 1200 on Opening Day whilst UNDERCOVER SNIPER won the 56+ 1200. The C1 gallopers went considerably faster than the 56+ horses so expect that the market will gravitate towards MYSTERY MINUTE here even though he rises in grade and rises 4kg in weight. Thought he did a good job fresh and should only improve second-up with the run under his belt. 4kg claimer to a strong senior and is drawn inside the other speed horses. Looks a good set up for him. UNDERCOVER SNIPER was having his 6th run of the campaign and that residual fitness was a telling factor late as he ran down Ironclad Boy. KUNAPIPI fought on well and now has visors on to replace the shades. YES I BELIEVE is a watch at his WA debut.

Numbers: 4 – 3 – 7 – 10

Suggested Bet – MYSTERY MINUTE WIN

RACE 4

GOLD SPY has now won four races from five outings on the dirt at Carnarvon. The 56+ 1000 he won on Opening Day was the highest rating race of the program and they stopped the clock 3.5L faster than average. He’s even better suited second-up out to 1200m and he drops 2.5kg start to start. He’s just a dirt specialist this horse. AARDVARK is an unknown and a real X-Factor in the race. Likely to be all or nothing at his first start on the dirt but his last two outings in 66+ and 0MWLY company on the grass at Ascot and Pinjarra have definitely been an improvement from him. MARS MISSION had his first start on the dirt and kept coming late. Liked the effort from him. OUR COOLAKIN KING will come on quickly into the prep.

Numbers: 6 – 5 – 7 – 1

Suggested Bet – GOLD SPY WIN

RACE 5

DREAM ILLUSION is a pretty classy type for the region and won this track/distance/grade last time out and only rises half a kilo start to start. Looks a great opportunity for him to go back to back early in the season and ultimately if you took away his grass runs then he’s 8:3-1-1. Excellent record and a dominant fresh winner. ONLY US was well found in betting and duly saluted at his first outing for new trainer Graeme Hammarquist. Well done to the punters who targeted him – because he went into that event as a 33 start C1 galloper and his previous win was over 1600m and they launched him fresh at 1200. The way he won he’ll be working his way through the grades on the dirt. BIGDAYONIT could be a sharp improver if he got away cleanly and led this race. LIMS SARBACH wouldn’t stretch out early on the dirt and clearly resented the kickback. Wish he drew barrier 12/12 to stay out of it early.

Numbers: 4 – 11 – 1 – 7

Suggested Bet – DREAM ILLUSION WIN

RACE 6

SWEXAN should take great benefit from his first outing on the dirt and if he jumps cleanly he can show a lot more early speed than they’re riding him for so far in WA. He led and won his maiden at 1400m and he led in a BM58 over 1750 in NSW as well, so now that he’s ou to 1400m he might just be able to slide forward this time around and that could be a big difference for him. DAIYAMONDO is through the right form race behind Gold Spy and drops in grade from a 56+ to a C1 and gets out to a more suitable 1400m from 1000m – all makes a lot of sense, but barrier 1 at Carnarvon is always a cause for concern if you’re not leading and she isn’t. A LOT OF CLASS like all of Graeme Hammarquist’s went super at the first meeting. SPACE ACE was sound at his fresh run and they put the shades back on him.

Numbers: 1 – 7 – 2 – 3

Suggested Bet – SWEXAN EACHWAY

Quaddie (Race 3 – 6)

3,4

5,6

4,11

1,2,7

Market Market



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