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David Shortte’s AFL Preview: Round 12

Posted on | Posted by David Shortte

THURSDAY

St Kilda v Hawthorn, Marvel Stadium, 5.30pm

The Saints have 4 wins and 3 losses from their last 7 outings and last week they stayed close to Fremantle for most of the game before the Dockers pulled clear late to win by 30 points. For the second week running Max Hall was tremendous with 25 disposals and 2 goals.

Hawthorn sit 4th on the AFL table with 7 wins, 3 losses and a draw and after a mini flat patch (2 losses and a draw) they returned to the winner’s list last week digging in for an important 9 point win over Adelaide at UTAS Stadium. Swingman Blake Hardwick was clutch slotting 4 majors.

The Hawks will be bolstered by the return of veteran forward Jack Gunston and star on-baller Will Day while the Saints have included Alix Tauru and Isaac Keeler. I like the ins for Hawthorn in this and they look more potent inside forward 50 if they can get the supply.

VERDICT: Hawthorn by 23 points

Same Game Multi: Darcy Wilson to get 15 or more disposals and Karl Amon, Max Hall, Jarman Impey and Callum Wilkie to all get 20 or more disposals @ $3.50*

FRIDAY

Carlton v Geelong, MCG, 5.40pm

The change of Coach has worked a charm for the Blues! After recording just one win from their first 9 games, out with Voss, in with Fraser and the results have been a 12 point win over the Western Bulldogs followed up with a dominant 34 point victory over Port Adelaide at the Adelaide Oval. This is clearly a much tougher assignment but it is easy to see that they are playing with a renewed zest.

Geelong remain one of the more impressive sides in the competition. They have won 6 of their last 7 and last week their 27 point win over Sydney was full of merit. Their midfield weapon Bailey Smith has amassed 30 or more disposals in 9 of his last 10 matches and is on the second line of betting for the Brownlow Medal betting at $4.25.

Weitering,Saad and Williams are all likely inclusions for the Blues while Bruhn is the likely in of note for the Cats. The Cats have barely put a paw wrong over the last couple of months and while Carlton have looked a lot better over the past fortnight they are likely to be pushed to the limits in this one.

VERDICT: Geelong by 28 points

Same Game Multi: Lawson Humphries to get 15 or more disposals, Jagga Smith to get 20 or more disposals, Max Holmes to get 25 or more disposals and Bailey Smith to get 30 or more disposals @ $3.10*

SATURDAY

Sydney v Richmond, SCG, 11.15am

The Swans suffered just their second loss for the season last week when beaten by the Cats at GMHBA Stadium by 27 points but they were far from disgraced and they will relish heading back to their home deck for this one.

The Tigers brought up their second win for the season in the Dreamtime clash defeating an injury ravaged Bombers outfit by 18 points. The Tigers have also been cruelled by injuries with 19 players currently listed with medical issues.

The Swans will be missing Tom Papley and Malcolm Rosas for this one but they have adequate cover and look to have a serious class edge here. Heeney, Blakey and McInerney have all been running riot at the SCG this season and I expect that to continue in this contest.

VERDICT: Sydney by 52 points.

Same Game Multi: Justin McInerney to get 20 or more disposals, Nick Blakey and Isaac Heeney to both get 25 or more disposals and Justin McInerney to kick 1 or more goals at $4.25.*

Brisbane v Fremantle, GABBA Stadium, 2.15pm

The footy world was left shocked last weekend when out of nowhere the GWS Giants piled on a record 14 goals in a quarter to dismantle the back to back premiers and eventually hand them a 78 point hiding. That came off the back of a 41 point loss to Geelong at the GABBA the week prior and the Lions now find themselves in 8th spot on the AFL table with a 6 win, 5 loss record.

Fremantle recorded a club record 10 wins on the trot last weekend and pulled clear in the last quarter to defeat Saint Kilda by 30 points. They now find themselves on top of the table closing in on the half way mark of the season.

Brisbane are expected to welcome back Jarrod Berry while for Fremantle both Alex Pearce and Hayden Young face fitness tests prior to final teams being announced.

This really should be one of the matches of the season. The reigning champs would be stinging after their performances over the last 2 weeks and the last 3 year’s worth of history has shown us that under these circumstances the Lions have typically delivered a savage response. It must be remembered they were under similar duress at this stage of the season last year before straightening themselves up and going on for back to back glory.

It is also a welcome acid test for the Dockers. In order to be the best you have to beat the best and right here, right now is an opportunity for Fremantle to show that they are legitimate contenders. To claim the scalp of Brisbane at the GABBA would go a long way in showing the football world that they are the real deal in season 2026. I have enormous respect for Brisbane and at some point the Dockers have to drop one but on current form I believe Freo are ticking along beautifully and I think they can sneak home in a cliff hanger.

VERDICT: Fremantle by 7 points.

Same Game Multi: Luke Ryan and Luke Jackson to both get 15 or more disposals, Murphy Reid and Will Ashcroft to both get 20 or more disposals and Lachie Neale to get 25 disposals or more @ $3.25*

Western Bulldogs v Collingwood, Marvel Stadium, 5.35pm

The Doggies brought up a much needed victory last weekend hanging on to beat Melbourne by 3 points in what was a fierce contest. The win took their season record to 6 wins and 5 losses and they find themselves in 9th spot on the ladder.

Collingwood were forced to work hard for their 10 point win over West Coast in the Games Record match for their champion Scott Pendlebury. They have  5 wins, 5 losses and a draw and sit in 10th spot on the ladder just 2 premiership points behind their opponents in this contest.

Tim English will need to clear concussion protocols but would be a welcome inclusion in to the Dogs lineup for this while Jamie Elliot and Darcy Moore come out for the Pies. This should be a very entertaining clash between two sides who are desperate for wins to keep their finals aspirations alive. I have a slight lean to the Western Bulldogs but expect it to be a tight tussle.

VERDICT: Western Bulldogs by 8 points.

Same Game Multi: Ed Richards and Jordan DeGoey to both get 20 or more disposals and Nick Daicos, Ryley Sanders and Bailey Dale to all get 25 or more disposals @ $3.45*

SUNDAY

Melbourne v GWS, Traeger Park (Alice Springs), 1.15pm

The Demons suffered their 4th loss of the season last week going down by 3 points to the Western Bulldogs in a match that could have gone either way. They have had a strong start to the year and sit in 6th spot on the AFL Ladder.

GWS went from the out house to the penthouse in the space of a week losing to West Coast before returning home and slamming on a record 14 goals in a quarter to destroy Brisbane by 78 points. I can’t help but be a little confused as to what to expect next!

This will be played in the unique conditions up in Alice Springs and Melbourne have the edge in experience playing at the venue. While GWS were steaming hot last week against a quality opponent Melbourne have been the more consistent of the two sides over the course of the first 11 rounds and accordingly I will head that way.

VERDICT: Melbourne by 9 points

Same Game Multi: Brent Daniels and Max Gawn to both get 15 disposals or more, Jake Bowey and Jack Steele to both get 20 disposals or more, Clayton Oliver to get 25 or more disposals and Aaron Cadman to kick 1 or more goals @ $3.50*

West Coast v Essendon, Optus Stadium, 5.20pm

The Eagles brought up their third win of the season two weeks ago when defeating the Giants and last week I thought they hung in there pretty well to only be beaten by 10 points in front of 90,000 fans at the MCG against Collingwood.

After just 1 win in the last year the Bombers sit on bottom of the AFL ladder, have an enormous injury list and have just parted ways with Coach Brad Scott. That said they have Dean Solomon moving in to the Coaches chair and as we have seen with Carlton over the past fortnight sometimes the fresh voice can provoke a response. Out of last week’s losing team to Richmond the Bombers will be minus McGrath, Durham, May, Caldwell and Guelfi all of whom suffered injuries.

I am always weary of a side with a new Coach but in fairness West Coast are simply playing more consistent and reliable footy and are a lot more healthy than the Bombers at the moment. They should take care of business on their home deck.

VERDICT: West Coast by 17 points.

Same Game Multi: Sullivan Robey, Bailey J Williams, Elliot Yeo and Ryan Maric to all get 15 disposals or more and Harley Reid to get 25 or more disposals @ $4.20*

*Odds correct at the time of publication.

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