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David Shortte’s AFL Preview: Round 20

Posted on | Posted by David Shortte

THURSDAY

Adelaide v Collingwood, Adelaide Oval, 5.30pm

The Crows have been one of the form sides of the competition over the last 3 months winning 9 of their last 11 including an impressive 16 point victory over Sydney at the SCG last week. They sit in 5th spot on the AFL Table.

Collingwood have also been in a purple patch of form winning their last 5 matches and last week they were far too good for their arch rivals Carlton winning by 21 points. They have progressed their ladder position up to 8th.

These two sides have played in some absolute nailbiters in recent years with 5 of their last 8 meetings being won by single digit margins and the other three wins being by just 10 points, 24 points and 14 points.

Adelaide bring in Walker, Murray and Maley for Fogarty Keane and Cook while Collingwood bring in Howe for Swadling.

This should be a magnificent contest and I expect the recent trend of close finishes to continue. With the home ground advantage I’ll take the Crows to sneak home.

VERDICT: Adelaide by 7 points.

Same Game Multi:  Either team to win by 29 points or less, Sam Berry, Dan Houston and Josh Worrell to all get 15 or more disposals and Josh Daicos and Jordan DeGoey to both get 20 or more disposals @ $3.10*

FRIDAY

Melbourne v Geelong, MCG, 5.40pm

Melbourne have maintained their excellent form winning 5 of their last 6 matches. They were 16 point winners over the Kangaroos last week and they sit in 6th spot on the table.

Geelong snapped a 3 game losing streak last week when beating Saint Kilda by 27 points but the win came at a cost with their gun midfielder Max Holmes suffering a severe ankle injury. The Cats sit in 9th spot.

There is plenty on the line here for both teams and it is another game that on paper should deliver a fine contest.

Melbourne have won all 9 of their games at the MCG this season and with Geelong missing some key personnel I will tip the Demons to deliver the goods.

VERDICT: Melbourne by 8 points.

Same Game Multi: Gryan Miers, Max Gawn, Jake Bowey, Tom Sparrow and Lawson Humphries to all get 20 or more disposals @ $3.00*

Fremantle v West Coast, Optus Stadium, 6.10pm

Fremantle brought up their 16th win of the season last week when they travelled to the Adelaide Oval and proved too strong for Port winning by 28 points. They remain on top of the AFL ladder with a 3 win buffer on their nearest rivals Sydney.

West Coast have lost their last 6 matches but over the last three weeks they have run in to some quality opposition in Adelaide, the Bulldogs and Brisbane and they have been far from disgraced in any of those fixtures going down by margins of 25, 16 and 24 points.

These two sides met in round 6 where Fremantle prevailed by 56 points. Importantly Harley Reid is a likely starter after having to deal with some ankle issues last week.

Fremantle may not have been at their electrifying best last week but they did what was required and importantly got through unscathed from an injury perspective. They will be hoping for something similar here.

VERDICT: Fremantle by 33 points.

Same Game Multi: Harley Reid, Murphy Reid and Jordan Clark to all get 20 or more disposals and Jye Amiss and Josh Treacy to both kick 2 or more goals @ $3.30*

SATURDAY

Carlton v Gold Coast, Marvel Stadium, 11.05am

After winning 7 in a row the Blues have dropped their last couple losing to Hawthorn by 64 points and Collingwood by 21 points. They sit in 12th spot and are scrapping for a Wildcard slot.

The Suns continue to disappoint and they lost their 8th straight game last week when the Western Bulldogs defeated them by 9 points. They have drifted down to 14th spot.

This is a game that I am happy to steer away from. Carlton have been better under Coach Josh Fraser but they are short enough here and the Suns will nick a game somewhere along the line.

VERDICT: Carlton by 7 points.

Same Game Multi: Adam Cerra to get 15 or more disposals, George Hewett, Touk Miller, Jagga Smith and John Noble to all get 20 or more disposals and Sam Walsh and Patrick Cripps to both get 25 or more disposals @ $3.20.*

Hawthorn v Essendon, MCG, 2.15pm

The Hawks have won 4 of their last 5 and they did a number on the Tigers last week beating them by 70 points. They are in 3rd spot on the ladder.

The Bombers brought up their second win of the season when defeating GWS by 3 points. The win lifted them up to 17th spot on the table.

Hawthorn are tuning up for finals while the Bombers are doing their best to avoid the Wooden Spoon. This should be a comfortable victory for the Hawks,

VERDICT: Hawthorn by 57 points.

Same Game Multi: Hawthorn to win by 40 points or more, Sam Durham, Will Day and Jarman Impey to all get 20 or more disposals and Nick Watson to kick 3 or more goals @ $3.30*

GWS v Sydney, ENGIE Stadium, 2.35pm

GWS remain the greatest enigma in the AFL. Over the last 9 weeks they have beaten Fremantle, Brisbane, Melbourne and Geelong. Incredibly through that same period they have lost to West Coast, Saint Kilda, Carlton and Essendon. They sit in 11th spot and are chasing a Wild Card spot.

Sydney have lost 3 of their last 4 matches but remain in second spot on the table.

These sides met earlier in the season and it resulted in a 41 point win for the Swans.

The Giants are unpredictable and capable of anything but Sydney will be keen to win to keep hold of second spot on the ladder.

VERDICT: Sydney by 7 points.

Same Game Multi: Joe Fonti to get 15 or more disposals, Errol Gulden and Nick Blakey to both get 20 or more disposals and Isaac Heeney and Lachie Whitfield to both get 25 or more disposals @ $3.40*

Western Bulldogs v Richmond, Marvel Stadium, 5.40pm

The Doggies have won 6 of their last 8 games and they were too good for the Suns last week prevailing by 9 points. They sit in 7th spot.

Richmond find themselves back on the bottom of the table after losing to Hawthorn by 70 points last week.

The Western Bulldogs have plenty to play for and if they turn up in the right mindset they should win this well.

VERDICT: Western Bulldogs by 38 points.

Same Game Multi: Ryley Sanders and Tom Liberatore to both get 20 or more disposals, Marcus Bontempelli to get 25 or more disposals and Marcus Bontempelli and Aaron Naughton to both kick 2 or more goals @ $4.40*

SUNDAY

Brisbane v Port Adelaide, GABBA, 11.10am

The reigning premiers Brisbane are starting to work through the gears nicely and they have now won their last 6 straight. They have climbed to 4th spot on the table.

Port continue to scrap hard despite having injuries to a number of their top line operators. They are in 15th place on the ladder.

Brisbane have looked menacing in recent weeks and they should romp in here.

VERDICT: Brisbane by 38 points.

Same Game Multi: Ollie Wines to get 20 or more disposals, Lachie Neale and Will Ashcroft to both get 25 or more disposals and Logan Morris and Kai Lohman to both kick 2 or more goals each @ $3.25*

North Melbourne v Saint Kilda, Marvel Stadium, 1.15pm

The Kangaroos have lost their last three in a row and are now one of five sides slugging it out for the Wild Card spot. They currently sit in 13th position.

The Saints have won 2 of their last 3 but found the Cats too good for them at GMHBA Stadium last week. They are in 10th spot and will be hoping to lock that position away over the next few weeks.

Both of these sides have shown signs of improvement at different stages of the season but have struggled with consistency. This should be an entertaining game and I will lean towards the Saints.

VERDICT: Saint Kilda by 17 points.

Same Game Multi: Saint Kilda to win, Darcy Wilson to get 20 or more disposals and Harry Sheezel and Hugo Garcia to both get 25 or more disposals @ $3.00*

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