Races

Scott Embry’s Saturday Belmont Preview

Posted on | Posted by Scott Embry

Race 1

QUEDJINUP made a serious impression on debut at Bunbury. She had trialled super but there was over a month between her trial and heading to the races after working through a minor hoof issue, but she safely shrugged that set back off with a dominant debut win. She has a sharp turn of foot and from the draw she’ll get all the favours midfield with cover. Big future. RIFLEMAN was scratched last week to dodge the Heavy track and 7 days later finds an improving Soft5. He got too far out of his ground on debut in a slowly run race but sectionally closed off very well. SUPERRIFIC has looked seriously sharp in two trials this prep. Does Pike chance his hand early and charge across? I think so. GOD’S CHOICE trialled really well and then was thrown straight into the Gimcrack. Big watch at her return.

Numbers: 8 – 4 – 5 – 9

Suggested Bet – QUEDJINUP WIN

Race 2

GINGER GREEN, STRAPPING PROPHET, HERE FOR CHEQUES, RIGHT TO SILENCE and SECRET IDENTITY will all be single figures in this race and cumulatively their Days Since Last Win = 3547. Yuck, no thanks. STRAPPING PROPHET is a tease, he’s finished runner-up at four of his last five and looks scared of the Western Racepix Camera. HERE FOR CHEQUES was given every possible by Pat Carbery last start breezing in a race where they went the first 1100m 27.5L slower than average (no joke). SECRET IDENTITY was luckless last start in the key form reference race but is the kind of horse who can find traffic. KELVINATOR could be vulnerable at the end of a mile? The old boy GINGER GREEN might just be the ‘safest’ way to go after a solid and gritty return first-up at 1400m. Can box seat on Kelvinator and track his every move at an eachway price.

Numbers: 1 – 3 – 4 – 10

Suggested Bet – GINGER GREEN EACHWAY

Race 3

LONG SERVICE LEAF has had four starts at 1000m – 4/4 undefeated, and has had 3 starts at 1200m – 0/3. He’s just not the same horse. Freshened up 6 weeks between runs, back to his pet distance and can track up along the fence line in a high speed contest. Watch for him bursting through late. HAIDA GWAII is a little speed machine and short course specialist. Last preparation she had five starts for 3 wins and two minors which saw her elevate from a m69 to m82. She has a 50% winning strike rate, flies fresh, has won with 59.5kg previously and has won four times for Brad Parnham. Plenty to like, apart from her most recent trial? BABY PEARL seems to go best low in the weights and drawn soft. That’s the set up here. KAY TEE WHY has a tongue tie and a set of winkers on to try and bring him back to his best.

Numbers: 9 – 4 – 7 – 6

Suggested Bet – LONG SERVICE LEAF WIN

Race 4

WESTERN MISS is taking all before her this campaign. Nearly knocked over on debut, held up horribly at start number two and then has put together three in a line. She’s off 7 days, back in trip and carries a career high weight – so there’s a few negatives against her clearly, but what we do know is that she’s very talented. Could be an interesting watch if she’s crossed early? TIDWELL is going to be double figures but think he’s going really well. His last start effort from the rear was super in a race where the on-speed horses dominated. Finally drawn a gate and may look to track the fav through along the fence. HEAVEN SPECIFIED was a strong Trevor Andrews debut behind a couple of nice emerging 3-year-olds in Common Touch and Deep Lyric. Should only improve into the prep and to 1400m. PARTAY will roll forward and either cross or more likely breeze. Getting better with racing.

Numbers: 5 – 11 – 7 – 3

Suggested Bet – WESTERN MISS WIN

Race 5

CHARINO is just getting better and better. The 1400m is unchartered waters but he’ll get a lovely run, likely one out, one back tracking up behind natural front runners like Battle Commander and Exceltrain and while he concedes huge weight to key rivals Magical Sequence and Zourun Run he’ll also hold a big tactical advantage over them in running. His last start win tracking the ridiculously hot tempo set by Norich was career best ratings wise. ZOURUN RUN was luckless last start in the Magical Sequence race. They both draw awkwardly and may both need to go back early to find positions. She could easily turn the tables with a 1.5kg weight swing. MAGICAL SEQUENCE is just a ripper. She knows how to win. This is (again) her toughest test to date. URQUHARTS BLUFF has been a revelation this prep.

Numbers: 1 – 15 – 12 – 11

Suggested Bet – CHARINO EACHWAY

Race 6

KISSES FROM KELLY continues to hold form brilliantly. Since his second to Starling Star he has won a 66+ 2100 and ran second in another 66+ 2200 to Citino. He meets Citino half a kilo worse at the weights but Citino loses Pike for an apprentice. There is less speed and pressure in this line-up and you just know you’re going to get a run for your money on the eachway with this extremely honest and consistent conveyance. CITINO let down brilliantly to get over the top of him last start and if Chanel Cooper can get him off the fence and into clear galloping room on straightening it’s game on again. ESTA MIRANDO and WITH DISCRETION are the X-Factor runners heading out in trip for the first time in their life. Both look like they’ll stay but only one way to find out!

Numbers: 3 – 2 – 11 – 15

Suggested Bet – KISSES FROM KELLY EACHWAY

Race 7

TWISTED STEEL was caught in no man’s land in the Beaufine. He was sort of 3.5 deep with slight cover on the back of 200-1 pop Puli who began to yield ground before home corner forcing him out four deep into the straight. This time around he’s drawn barrier 2 to get a lovely run close handy and with a full 2kg swing on Immortal Bliss he gets his chance to turn the tables. IMMORTAL BLISS more or less followed his every move in that event and then had too much firepower for him late. He has seemingly gone to a new level this preparation and has shown in previous campaigns that he’s more than just a 1000m horse. MADHI GIRL never got a crack at them fresh. Interestingly she’s being offered in Friday’s Inglis Online Sale as an Unreserved Racing/Breeding proposition. SNOWDOME did a power of work fresh and only faded out late. Gets across here?

Numbers: 12 – 7 – 10 – 2

Suggested Bet – TWISTED STEEL WIN

Same Race Multi – Twisted Steel (Top 2) + Immortal Bliss (Top 2)

Going to go quite direct in this week’s SRM – the Beaufine Quinella to again run the Quinella in the Bolton Sprint. Twisted Steel has a 2kg weight swing, a barrier advantage and an extra 200m to turn the tables on Immortal Bliss who couldn’t have been more impressive first-up. They look the big two again.

Race 8

PANTILE WARRIOR could be exciting. His only career win was over 2000m on the Synthetic at Chelmsford, but he’s run third at Royal Ascot in a 3 year old event, second in a BM70 at Sandown (effectively a 60+ Grad) and gone around $4.80 and $2.80 in a BM84 (~WA 72+) and BM78 (~WA 66m+) respectively. Expect the market will like him on the weekend and his recent 950m Lark Hill trial was really encouraging for a horse stepping out first-up at 1400m. He’ll divide opinions but happy to gamble on him first-up, especially when you should get a crack at eachway early in betting. ROCK THE MARKET lands 1×1, enjoys the run of the race and is proven at this level. She’s mapped to be a big player. REMINISCENCE went around $2.80 last start this track/distance/grade and was three deep without cover in a forgive. I LOVE YA MONEY looks the kind of progressive youngster who could take the step up.

Numbers: 1 – 6 – 9 – 12

Suggested Bet – PANTILE WARRIOR EACHWAY

Quaddie (Race 5 – 8)

1,9,10,11,12,15

2,3,11,15

7,12

1,6

Market Market



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