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Robbie Von’s F1 Preview – Hungarian Grand Prix

Posted on | Posted by Robbie Von

ANTONELLI IS RUNNING AWAY WITH IT. AND RUSSELL IS “NUMB TO DISAPPOINTMENT.”

Belgium had all the twists and turns of an episode of Home and Away. The weather was worse than Summer Bay but Belgium definitely had the storylines! Kimi Antonelli won his sixth race of the 2026 season at Spa-Francorchamps. Lewis hit George. Lewis hit one of his pit crew. Oscar jagged a fifth.

BELGIUM IN BRIEF

George Russell was swallowed up by the pack at the start, in his own words, slower than an F2 car without battery deployment. He was collected by Lewis Hamilton mid-corner. Race over. His championship hopes potentially gone with it.

Antonelli briefly lost the lead to Verstappen at the start, reclaimed it, then spent the middle portion of the race chasing down Charles Leclerc in his Ferrari. Leclerc had jumped ahead via a virtual safety car pit stop. With ten laps remaining Antonelli finally got his man. Clinical as ever. Leclerc second, Verstappen third.

Hamilton had a day to forget despite finishing fourth. A five-second penalty for the Russell collision. Then an unsafe pit release which sent him straight over his own mechanic. Ferrari were investigated post-race. Hamilton escaped with a fine. The mechanic was, thankfully, unhurt.

Piastri fifth, Norris sixth after starting 13th on the grid following a penalty. McLaren are still searching.

And Russell? Numb to disappointment, by his own admission. The championship gap between him and Antonelli has blown out to 50 points. With the summer break coming after Hungary, it is looking increasingly difficult.

WHERE THE CHAMPIONSHIP STANDS

Antonelli: 204 points. Hamilton: 159. Russell: 154. Leclerc: 126. Norris: 103.

THE HUNGARIAN GRAND PRIX – THE HUNGARORING

Often described as Monaco without the walls, the Hungaroring is all about mechanical grip, braking stability, and traction. Overtaking is extremely difficult which makes Saturday qualifying almost as important as Sunday’s 70 laps.

Unlike Spa, energy management is not the dominant conversation here. Mercedes should thrive. The Hungaroring rewards the kind of precision and tyre management that Antonelli has turned into an art form in 2026.

But Ferrari will be dangerous. Lewis Hamilton has eight wins in Hungary – the most of any driver in history at this circuit. EIGHT. If he is going to launch a serious title charge in the second half of the season, this is the springboard.

McLaren also arrive with new braking and cornering upgrades debuting this weekend. If the Hungaroring suits the update, Norris could quietly emerge as a genuine podium threat.

THE TEAMS

Mercedes

Antonelli at $2.75 to win and $1.25 Top 3. Six wins from ten races. The Hungaroring should suit his style. If he wins here before the summer break, the title is his to lose heading into August. The ‘Team to Feature Winning Driver’ – Mercedes at $1.90 is the anchor play once again.

Russell

George Russell is at $6.00 to win and $1.95 Top 3. Numb to disappointment and 50 points behind his teammate. He needs a big result here before the summer shutdown or this title race is effectively over. The hunger will be there. The question is whether the car delivers.

Ferrari

Leclerc at $4.50 to win and $1.50 Top 3. Hamilton equal at $4.50 to win and $1.50 Top 3. Ferrari have won two of the last four races and are the most dangerous threat to Mercedes. Hamilton at one of his favourite circuits, 45 points back, desperate to close the gap before the break. Hamilton Top 3 at $1.50 is a strong play. The ‘Best Finishing Position’ matchup – Hamilton over Leclerc at $1.85 is also worth considering.

Red Bull

Verstappen at $8.00 to win and $2.25 Top 3. He finished third at Spa and showed genuine pace. The Hungaroring has not been a happy hunting ground for Red Bull in recent years but Verstappen is always dangerous when the car is reliable. Verstappen Top 3 at $2.25 offers decent value if you believe the Red Bull continues its recovery.

McLaren

Norris at $15.00 to win and $2.50 Top 3. Piastri at $26.00 to win and $4.25 Top 3. The new upgrades are the story here. If they work, both drivers could move up the order significantly. The Hungaroring rewards the kind of mechanical grip McLaren have been searching for. Piastri Top 3 at $4.25 is the value play if you believe in the upgrade.

PLAYS FOR THIS WEEKEND

Kimi Antonelli to Win – $2.75

Lewis Hamilton Top 3 – $1.50

Oscar Piastri Top 3 – $4.25 (come on upgrades!)

Mercedes ‘Team to Feature Winning Driver’ – $1.90

Hungary before the summer break. A championship that could be decided or blown wide open. Antonelli looking to close the door, Hamilton and Russell desperate to keep it ajar. This is should be cinema.

Odds correct at time of publication. 

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