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David Shortte’s AFL Round 3 Preview

Posted on | Posted by David Shortte

THURSDAY

Geelong v Adelaide, GMHBA Stadium, 4.30pm

The Cats have had a week off after their big come from behind win against Fremantle in Round 1. It was a performance that reminded us of why they made the Grand Final last year and the 2025 Coleman Medallist Jeremy Cameron looked sharp and ready for another tremendous season in that match.

Adelaide made an impressive comeback of their own last week against the Western Bulldogs but they just failed to peg back a sizeable deficit going down by 6 points. They will however be missing four key contributors from that match with Laird, Dawson, Walker and Ah Chee all on the sidelines.

Geelong look to be getting Adelaide at the right time here with a quartet of very important Crows players out of action.

VERDICT: Geelong to win by 33 points

Same Game Multi: Geelong to win by 16 points or more, Gryan Miers to get 20 disposals or more, Tanner Bruhn to get 20 disposals or more and Jeremy Cameron to kick 3 or more goals @ $3.70*

FRIDAY

Collingwood v GWS, Marvel Stadium, 4.40pm

The Pies defeated St Kilda in opening round prior to a 14 point loss to Adelaide in round 1 and they are now back in action off the bye. Their list is very healthy and both Moore and Howe are chances to return here.

GWS continue to be cruelled by injuries to a host of their best players and it has been a roller coaster start to their season. They were tremendous in opening round beating Hawthorn, were poleaxed by the Bulldogs losing by 81 points and then last week they were ok in a 4 point loss to the Saints.

I get the feeling GWS might be a bit of an up and down side this season and their injury toll is debilitating. The Pies off a freshen up here with a rare visit to Marvel Stadium get the nod but the Giants can give them a run.

VERDICT: Collingwood by 11 points.

Same Game Multi: Joe Fonti to get 15 disposals or more, Dan Houston to get 20 or more disposals, Josh Daicos to get 25 or more disposals and Lachie Schultz to kick 1 goal or more @ $3.45*

SATURDAY

St Kilda v Brisbane, Marvel Stadium, 9.35am

After two narrow losses to kick off their season the Saints landed their first victory of the campaign when sneaking home by 4 points against GWS at Engie Stadium last week. The win will have been good for the Saints confidence and they return to their favourite venue Marvel Stadium here but they now run in to the back to back Premiers Brisbane

The Lions have had a tough start to the season with a narrow loss to the Western Bulldogs at home and a 44 point loss to the Swans on the road. They have now had the benefit of a week off for the bye and will likely welcome back Logan Morris, Zac Bailey and Darcy Gardiner for this fixture.

Brisbane aren’t back to back premiers for no reason and this looks a strong opportunity to land their first victory of the season.

VERDICT: Brisbane by 13 points.

Same Game Multi: Either team to win by 39 points or less, Logan Morris to kick 2 goals or more and Max Hall to kick a goal or more @ $3.55*

Fremantle v Richmond, Optus Stadium, 1.15pm

After a narrow loss to Geelong in round one the Dockers cashed in on home ground advantage against Melbourne last week with a dominant 48 point victory. It was an excellent team performance and Andrew Brayshaw returned to some of his very best form while Josh Treacy continues to shine like a beacon inside the Fremantle forward 50.

After a narrow loss to the Blues in round one the Tigers were brought back to earth against the league leaders the Gold Coast Suns last week losing by 68 points. Richmond are missing a string of their best outfit for this match and it looks a real challenge for them to cope with some of the bigger names from Fremantle who look to be finding their best form.

There is scope for significant rain and unpleasant conditions for this match so I am a little guarded as to what may unfold overall but regardless of conditions this is a game Freo should be winning and winning well.

VERDICT: Fremantle by 41 points.

Same Game Multi: Fremantle to win by 25 points or more, Jayden Short, Andrew Brayshaw and Caleb Serong to all get 25 or more disposals @ $3.70*

Essendon v North Melbourne, Marvel Stadium, 4.35pm

The Bombers have had a forgettable start to season 2026 with a 62 point defeat at the hands of the Hawks followed by a 63 point loss to Port Adelaide last weekend. The footy media have been quick to heap the pressure on the club and the Coach heading in to this game – will there be a response?

North Melbourne had the footy world heaping praise on them after their impressive round one win against Port Adelaide but a week can be a long time in footy and that rung true with the Kangaroos coughing up a handy lead to eventually be comfortably beaten by West Coast by 17 points.

In complete honesty nothing would surprise me here. Despite having a very long losing streak overall the Bombers have beaten North Melbourne at their last 10 matches dating back to April 2019.

VERDICT: Kangaroos by 3 points

Same Game Multi: Nate Caddy to kick 2 or more goals, Paul Curtis to kick 2 or more goals and Nick Larkey to kick 3 or more goals @ $4.60*

SUNDAY

Port Adelaide v West Coast, Adelaide Oval, 9.30am

Set the alarm for this one punters with bounce down at 9.30am WA Time. Port Adelaide were plain in their round one defeat to the Kangaroos but they looked a lot sharper last week comfortably accounting for the Bombers by more than 10 goals. Butters was awesome but there was a significant setback to come out of the game with Connor Rozee set to miss 4 months with a serious hamstring.

West Coast handed in their most encouraging performance for a significant period of time winning at home against the Kangaroos last week. Harley Reid led from the front and it was wonderful to see Elliot Yeo back marshalling the troops. A number of the Eagles recent prized first round picks showed promise and they will continue to give their fans reason to get excited in the years to come.

I’ll lean towards Port with the home ground edge in this.

VERDICT: Port Adelaide by 28 points

Same Game Multi: Harley Reid to get 20 disposals or more, Jake Waterman to kick 2 goals or more and Mitch Georgiades to kick 3 goals or more @ $3.55*

Carlton v Melbourne, MCG, 12.15pm

Carlton felt the full brunt of Sydney in opening round when suffering a 10 goal loss before opening their winning account in round one against Richmond. They are now fresh off the bye.

Melbourne handed in one of their more impressive performances for some time, easily accounting for Port Adelaide by 46 points in round one but on the road to Fremantle last week they were handsomely beaten. The return to the MCG here could prove crucial.

I liked what I saw from Melbourne a fortnight ago and my gut feel is they come in with stronger form here.

VERDICT: Melbourne by 17 points.

Same Game Multi: Melbourne to win, Jagga Smith to get 25 or more disposals and Kozy Pickett to kick 1 goal or more and Brody Mihocek to kick 1 goal or more @ $3.35*

*Odds correct at the time of publication.

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