Sports

Digby Beacham’s AFL Preview: Finals Week 1

Posted on | Posted by Digby Beacham

THURSDAY

Richmond v Hawthorn, MCG, 5.20pm

Richmond were guaranteed a top-two finish a long way out from the finals. If you were to be super critical, their form late in the home-and-away season probably reflected that. While they didn’t drop any games they were expected to win, they didn’t set the world on fire either.

Now they are back in September, the football community is waiting to see if the switch can be flicked. It would be a surprise if it isn’t. The return from an ankle injury of Kane Lambert will see him slot alongside Dustin Martin, Trent Cotchin and Dion Prestia in a quality midfield. Hawthorn have their own weapons around the ball, notably raging Brownlow Medal favourite Tom Mitchell and Jaeger O’Meara.

Both sides have shown a propensity to score heavily when required, but the weather forecast and finals intensity could well see goals at a premium. That the Tigers boast such a high-quality defence makes it even harder for the Hawks to register a winning total.

VERDICT: Richmond by 25 points

FRIDAY

Melbourne v Geelong, MCG, 5.50pm

Much has been made of Melbourne’s lack of finals experience ahead of their first September appearance since 2006. But if there is one team that looks ideally suited to the cut-and-thrust of post-season action, it is the Demons, a renowned contested-ball outfit.

The return from injury of co-captain Jack Viney gives Melbourne even more grunt around the stoppages, an area Melbourne are entitled to think they can be influential given the presence of All-Australian ruckman Max Gawn and the Cats ruling out Rhys Stanley on Wednesday night. Dismissing the Cats’ running division of Patrick Dangerfield, Joel Selwood, Gary Ablett, Sam Menegola and Tim Kelly would be foolish, however.

Spearhead Tom Hawkins destroyed the Demons in the Cats’ come-from-behind win late in the season and has enjoyed an excellent 2018. If he is able to carry the home-and-away form into the finals, the Cats are an undeniable chance.

VERDICT: Melbourne by 11 points

SATURDAY

Sydney v GWS, SCG, 2.20pm

Of all the finals this weekend, this is the one with perhaps the fewest surprises. Brutal hand-to-hand combat looms, with both sides likely to do everything they can to grind the other into the ground in a physical battle.

Sydney will endeavour to take away the play-making abilities of Greater Western Sydney’s prime movers, with Josh Kelly and Lachie Whitfield set to come in for special attention. From a Giants perspective, coach Leon Cameron will be desperate to ensure his co-captain Phil Davis isn’t isolated often on Lance Franklin, the man most likely to take the game away from GWS.

The Swans got the Giants on both occasions this season, with Franklin’s stirring effort at Spotless Stadium late in the year proving decisive. Rested alongside midfielder Luke Parker in round 23, he should hit this contest with a head of steam. Don’t expect a free-flowing affair, rather enjoy finals football at its most purest.

VERDICT: Sydney by 13 points

West Coast v Collingwood, Optus Stadium, 6.10pm

Collingwood know full well they need to improve on what they produced against Fremantle in Perth if they are to advance directly to a preliminary final. But the Magpies will take great comfort from the fact they have had a hit-out at Optus Stadium already this season.

However, a round 23 meeting against a poor Fremantle side compared to a qualifying final against a powerful West Coast outfit before 60,000 fans is a vastly different beast. Yes, the Magpies are regularly exposed to big crowds and have a history of performing well interstate in finals, but this looms as the ultimate test.

Collingwood’s defence has done a mighty job to hold up in the face of injuries to key personnel, but it will  be tested by the presence of Josh Kennedy, Jack Darling, Jamie Cripps, Mark LeCras, Willie Rioli and Liam Ryan. The Magpies have their own weapons at the other end of the ground, notably Jordan De Goey and Jaidyn Stephenson, however All-Australian pair Shannon Hurn and Jeremy McGovern lead a very effective West Coast defensive unit.

VERDICT: West Coast by 20 points

Market Market



Recent Articles