Races

Scott Embry’s Saturday Belmont Preview

Posted on | Posted by Scott Embry

RACE 1

HANG GLIDER was well commissioned on debut when nothing at all went right for him. He was awkwardly away, he pulled hard and worked out deep and still loomed on straightening. The leader Fiorucci Mama did everything right while he did everything wrong and she got away from him to win by over a length. She went on to be competitive in the Supremacy and Gimcrack behind Amelia’s Jewel. Hard to tell with the heinous 930m back straight trials at Lark Hill but looked to go well. Maps a treat and goes round an eachway quote. ONE COOL GAL was impressive on debut. Was able to burn across to take up a position and showed a turn of speed when gaps appeared. Has an X-Factor about her. DIAMOND COMMAND won same day, same distance and went considerably quicker. Maps rearward again but showed a slick turn of foot. EDWARD’S CHOICE absorbed a huge amount of pressure on debut. Super job to keep fighting on.

Numbers: 1 – 8 – 7 – 4

Suggested Bet – HANG GLIDER EACHWAY

RACE 2

MR MT WALKER is as honest and consistent as they come. He always turns up fresh (two preparations ago first-up winner by almost 2L, last preparation first-up finished less than 4L off God Has Chosen and Son Son in a 60+ Graduation), races well in and around this grade and maps a treat from the inside draw. Native Chimes will break them open as she always does and Mr Mt Walker should get a nice run into the race and goes round double figures. ARNIE’S BOY will divide opinions on just how well he was going 7 days ago when held up down the entire home straight. Backs up and gets another great chance. RULELEE is clearly going well but she’ll be favourite and she’ll likely be almost last and a mile off Native Chimes at stages. GOLD MERITS rarely runs a bad race and has trialled up well for her return.

Numbers: 6 – 4 – 8 – 9

Suggested Bet – MR MT WALKER EACHWAY

RACE 3

BOLD SUCCESS is a proven commodity off the 7 day back-up. His last win was off 7 days when dropping back from a 66+ to a 0MWLY and sitting in the breeze. This time round he backs up off 7 days, drops from a 72+ back to a 64+ and should again find the breeze outside either Bonneville Black or Interstate. Took off at the 700 last week and tried to sustain a massive run. Run down by Sluice Box and Reliable Star but never gave it away. Should give another great sight from the breeze. RELIABLE STAR meets him 1kg better for beating him home but loses Clint Johnston-Porter. She’s also a 7 day winner and looks about ready. ACTING GOD is going through the grades nicely. He’ll get a soft run three back the fence. SUNSPHERE will sit back and have last crack at them.

Numbers: 5 – 3 – 2 – 7

Suggested Bet – BOLD SUCCESS EACHWAY

RACE 4

BITOFMERIT will get WA punters excited. He is seriously untapped and seriously classy. His two wins have been with weight and been simply arrogant. Two from two fresh, two from two over 1000m and maps to get a nice trail into the race behind speedy types Bopping Blue, Heavenly Waters and My Baby Blue Jean. Think he’s a genuine top liner and fingers crossed he can remain undefeated. Exciting type. ASTRAPE is a get back sprinter with a stack of ability. Drops 2.5kg on her first-up win and covered additional ground. MY BABY BLUE JEAN might have to absorb some pressure from fellow speedsters with apprentice riders but she’s still hard to run down regardless. RED FIFTY THREE will be forgotten quickly in markets. Blinkers are off and his electric trial and first three wins were all without shades. Don’t discount.

Numbers: 5 – 4 – 8 – 6

Suggested Bet – BITOFMERIT WIN

RACE 5

TESTING LOVE and VIA MONTE are both going to be around the $8 mark and both look to get the right runs from favourable draws in a big field. TESTING LOVE got a long way out of her ground last start and worked her way through traffic to the outside and hit the line well enough. Patrick Carbery returns to the saddle and she can unleash a powerful turn of foot on her day. VIA MONTE is out to 1650 (did place at 1700 as a 3 year old) and looks like landing right over the top of the speed. Trusting in the strength of the 3 year old form (Sniparoochy a subsequent winner from that race) and the fact he’ll do no work in the run. FANGIO is drawn out wide with 61kg but reading the Stewards Report we may see her ridden forward with aggression. If she gets across she’s a big class dropper and her run 7 days ago was much better than it reads on paper. MEMORABLE MISS looked to be run off her legs at 1200m first-up.

Numbers: 9 – 3 – 1 – 5

Suggested Bet – TESTING LOVE EACHWAY

RACE 6

FALSE STATEMENT is hard to catch but it is equally hard to ignore his last run behind subsequent 78+ winner Startrade. He charged to the line from a mile off them and Shaun O’Donnell could be the key to this quirky galloper. Shaun has ridden him three times for a win, an eye catching second and a fifth when only 3L off Magical Dream, Secret Plan and Hot Zed. You’ll need eachway but you’ll get eachway. TIMELY OUTBURST is well placed back into a 66+. If she can leave cleanly and kick through underneath fellow leader Puli then she’ll be hard to run down. GUNMETAL GREY maps a treat and had to do a mountain of work last start from a wide gate. BURNYA TO SURVIVE went through the grades quickly and impressively when last in work. Will be doing his best work late.

Numbers: 5 – 3 – 9 – 4

Suggested Bet – FALSE STATEMENT EACHWAY

RACE 7

CHEVAL DE VAGA resumed first-up no trial in a pretty hot 66+ 1200m event. Was afforded no luck in running from a wide gate and was only beaten just over 4.5L. Should improve sharply fitness wise first-up to second-up, is better suited at 1400m and finds a race with absolutely no speed at all. Looks on paper like Keshaw Dhurun can roll straight to the front and should get it pretty cheap in the middle stages. Eachway and gets a race profile to suit. EM TEE AYE is starting to quickly rebuild some of the trust that punters lost with him over the last 18 months. His two runs this time in have been enormous and this is very winnable for him. FEATHERWEIGHT should settle on top of the speed and get a soft run. BRAVE DREAM showed huge upside when last in work. Dangerous late.

Numbers: 3 – 5 – 7 – 9

Suggested Bet – CHEVAL DE VAGA EACHWAY

RACE 8

GOD HAS CHOSEN will naturally have a big following in the Strickland Stakes. Breathtaking winner of the Belmont Sprint at his first attempt at WFA and then was massive in defeat behind Kaptain Kaos in the Hyperion when nothing went right for him from the time the gates opened until after the post. Odds on first time at 2000m unlikely to be a betting proposition but it would take a brave soul to be confidently tipping against him. ROSTROPOVICH was huge in the Hyperion. Caught off the track throughout and never gave up the chase. Should land a lovely spot behind Marocchino and Black Shadow here. Best chance yet in WA. KAPTAIN KAOS has a tricky gate to contend with and like God Has Chosen is on trial at the trip. NOTORIOUS ONE is a very hard horse to follow. If you didn’t know the horse you’d think he’s tipped back 6 pints of Swan before the race.

Numbers: 7 – 1 – 6 – 8

Suggested Bet – GOD HAS CHOSEN WIN

RACE 9

IT’SARAYDAY was back to his best last start when given a peach by Patrick Carbery. In a race devoid of speed, he can park up outside the leader and prove too strong for them late. Still green, still raw and still yet to fully work out what it’s all about but if Simon Miller and Patrick Carbery are talking 2022 Winterbottom Stakes then he needs to be winning 78+ races like this that look a gift on paper. SECRET PLAN drops 4kg and has a senior rider on for the first time in the campaign. You’d think this race has been on the agenda for a fair while and he’s got a powerful turn of acceleration. EXCELLENT DREAM backs up off 7 days, has blinkers re-attached and leads without pressure. Can run a cheeky race. ANGELIC MISS will relish the extra furlong.

Numbers: 4 – 12 – 3 – 5

Suggested Bet – IT’SARAYDAY WIN

Quaddie (Race 6 – 9)

3,4,5,7,9
1,3,4,5,7,9
7
4,12

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