Races

Chris Nelson’s Saturday Randwick Preview

Posted on | Posted by Chris Nelson

Race 1

Another big day of racing at Randwick on Saturday & I’m pleased to report the weather will be warm & the track perfect. The meeting gets underway with a 1400m Midway, I’m not wrapped in the 59.5kg for (3) DUSTY BAY however he does draw well & get J. Mac to steer which are definite positives. Last time he tackled this grade he ran a good second, all 4 runs since have been sound including a win & placing. (1) FELIX MAJESTIC looks close, he’s going to look the winner at some stage in the straight, he’ll be let rip with the big weight & try to run his rivals into the ground. Include (16) VEXXY in exotics.

Numbers: 3 – 1 – 16 – 4

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

Race 2

This week’s Highway looks as open as ever with many winning chances, some with very poor draws, max of 16 to run. (11) LORD REMLAP has raced on 3 occasions & trialled on 5; he’s been defeated only once across those 8 appearances & that was his second career trial. His wins have been from off speed coming with strong finishes, ridden cold from a wide gate here he might be able to get over the top of the leaders late & keep that record intact. The Matt Dunn duo (2) WAYBURN & (4) MRS GOLDBERG come into the race off last start wins at this level, must include plus we know how good his record is in these Highway races.

Numbers: 11 – 2 – 4 – 12

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

Race 3

Happy to stick with (3) ERNAUX here however I’m looking for a price of around $4 or better as I feel each-way is the best way to play her. No doubt she’s found her form of late however my concern is she’s getting back up in the weights, J. Mac from gate 1 does help offset that though. (2) PETTICOAT rarely runs a bad race & has successfully been back to the trials, wide gate not ideal however should she slide across ok she’ll give a good sight. (1) KIMBERLEY SECRETS in the mix with the claim once again a big plus.

Numbers: 3 – 2 – 1 – 17

Suggested Bet:  ERNAUX EACH-WAY ($4 or better).

Race 4

He’s a 2400m specialist (1) THEBUDGIESMUGLA & I’m not tipping against him here. No less than 5 successful attempts at the trip he strips fitter for the run here in the Premiers Cup last start which was his first since taking out the Caloundra Cup back in early July. (2) SO YOU ARE chased him home gamely at Caloundra, solid subsequent two starts. (5) FERNAO has been doing my head in up north, couple of good runs with patterns against he did have his chance last start when looking home before gunned down late. He’s either improved & will now measure up to this grade of not handle the class rise & fail…

Numbers: 1 – 2 – 5 – 7

Suggested Bet: THEBUDGIESMUGLA TO WIN.

Race 5

Here’s an open looking race over the 1200m. Canberra trained (14) OFF THE PRESS is double-figure odds in early markets & doesn’t set up badly at all. Solid first up at Rosehill behind the above average Polyglot he carries barely any more weight, draws well & is 3 from 4 second up. (4) DECORUM ticks many boxes bar the barrier one, he may well be good enough to overcome it? Wouldn’t be surprised to see the resuming (9) UNLEESHING run a race fresh, first up record is a solid one & although better placed over further she can show up without any surprise at all.

Numbers: 14 – 4 – 9 – 1

Suggested Bet: OFF THE PRESS EACH-WAY.

Race 6

The group 2 Furious Stakes for the 3yo fillies sees the impressive first up winner (2) PEMBREY go around once again & the way she put that field away suggests she’s the runner to beat once again. She led & set a solid speed, certainly not ‘stacking them up’ from the front yet was able to sprint clear of her rivals in the straight. You’d have to think she’s further improved & if that’s the case makes it 2 from 2 this prep. (3) CHILLY GIRL won well fresh keeping her unbeaten record intact, she’s not lacking in ability & draws favourably. I was keen on (4) CHERRY BOMSHELL in the Pembrey race first up, well supported she did nothing in the straight & faded to run last, she’s a lot better than that.

Numbers: 2 – 3 – 4 – 10

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

Race 7

1400m Group 2 Tramway Stakes where I’m with the second-up Group 1 winning mare (7) IDLE FLYER. Her & Ceowulf basically ran identical final 200m sectionals first up behind the superstar mare Autumn Glow in the Winx Stakes & she tackles this whilst Ceowulf takes on The Chelmsford later in the day. I can see her a lot closer in the run from the good draw & if close enough she can pounce late. (1) HEADLEY GRANGE resumes with a good fresh record & he too broke through at Group 1 level last prep winning the Kingsford-Smith Cup at Eagle Farm. (2) TRANSATLANTIC a place chance fresh.

Numbers: 7 – 1 – 2 – 3

Suggested Bet: IDLE FLYER TO WIN.

Race 8

The Group 2 Concorde is a cracking race which will help shape markets for bigger races down the track (e.g. Everest). As we know (4) TEMPTED beat all bar the Hong Kong champ Ka Ying Rising in last year’s Everest & then went on to win all 3 of her autumn starts. Trials have been good; she’s the logical selection in the race. However… I’m going to lean to another first upper in (1) HEADWALL at the better odds who did win this race last year & hasn’t been seen since due to injury. He’s a horse with a massive finish who has been trialling well, just loved that first hit out! Nos.2, 3 & 5 all capable of causing an upset.

Numbers: 1 – 4 – 2 – 3

Suggested Bet: HEADWALL EACH-WAY.

Race 9

The Group 2 Chelmsford looks an intriguing race. (9) FANGIRL didn’t fire in the Winx Stakes. Her SP of $26 tell you she wasn’t expected to show up however this race is a different story. Anywhere near her best form she surely would have the measure of most of these over 1600m & the dry track certainly works in her favour. She could bounce back in a big way here, let’s hope so! (1) CEOLWULF hit the line well in the same race first up, the step to a mile certainly suits, 4 of his 7 wins have been over 1600m with 3 of them at this track. (2) LINDERMANN can never be overlooked whilst (7) GREEN SPACES will be doing his best work late.

Numbers: 9 – 1 – 2 – 7

Suggested Bet: FANGIRL EACH-WAY.

Race 10

(8) STARZINTHEIREYES resumes here with 1600m looking a good starting point for this imported galloper who has had the 3 local outings placing twice. He’s had a couple of lead-up trials & both have been encouraging, happy to follow any market leads. (9) THE MONA LISA is flying; she’s won 3 of her past 4 starts & is well up to taking on this stronger race. Perhaps (13) WATSON next best, I don’t see this race having a long tail.

Numbers: 8 – 9 – 13 – 6

Suggested Bet: STARZINTHEIREYES TO WIN.

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