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Digby’s AFL Round 16 Preview

Posted on | Posted by Digby Beacham

Friday, 7 July

Adelaide v Western Bulldogs, Adelaide Oval 5.50pm

The premiership defence of the Western Bulldogs is teetering. And it might just be Adelaide that pushes it over the cliff, ensuring that Luke Beveridge and his players need to produce a herculean effort to re-enter the flag conversation in 2017. The focus on the Bulldogs has been intense all year and the news on Wednesday surrounding the health issues of Tom Boyd guaranteed the spotlight was even brighter.

As the big club in SA, Adelaide know full well what it is like to operate under enormous pressure and their ability to shake off a desperate Carlton at the MCG last Saturday after their poor display the previous round opposed to Hawthorn was full of merit. The Crouch brothers, Brad and Matt, were solid and the spread of contributors pleased coach Don Pyke.

On what we have seen this season, there is no chance of the Bulldogs winning if this becomes a shoot-out. Halting the Crows is a difficult task, but as the Hawks and Melbourne have shown, it can be done at Adelaide Oval. The big issue for the premiers is their inability to sustain an effort and the mediocre form of key players, notably Jason Johannisen and Jake Stringer. If Adelaide absorb the pressure and impact the scoreboard early, one wonders how the Bulldogs will generate enough scoring opportunities to hit back.

VERDICT: Adelaide by 32 points

Saturday, 8 July

Hawthorn v GWS, University of Tasmania Stadium 11.45am

Most thought last Saturday night’s home game against a Geelong side missing Joel Selwood sat up perfectly for Greater Western Sydney. Perhaps so too did the GWS players. In the end, the Giants had to storm home and then hold their breath to escape with a draw. It is the sort of performance which their detractors, of which there aren’t many, believe shows they are not worthy of the premiership tag they have carried almost exclusively since last year’s grand final.

One side that does know how to win flags is Hawthorn. Granted, this is a Hawks outfit in transition, but the signs in the past month have indicated Alastair Clarkson is again weaving his magic. The form of Shaun Burgoyne and gun midfield recruit Tom Mitchell has been spectacular. But they are going to need a significant support cast to take down the Giants, even if Steve Johnson (soreness) and Toby Greene (ankle) miss as expected.

VERDICT: GWS by 25 points

Collingwood v Essendon, MCG 12.10pm

In a season where the stakes are so high and the margins so small, heaven help the losing team — and coach — of this contest. Collingwood are heading towards a fourth successive season without finals football, almost certainly consigning Nathan Buckley to the exit door. Meanwhile, John Worsfold has overseen two dramatic meltdowns in the past fortnight, the most recent against Brisbane last Sunday prompting club CEO Xavier Campbell to issue a public apology to the fans.

Bombers captain Dyson Heppell got on the front foot on Monday, declaring the players were selfish, but the performance was out of character and he couldn’t wait for the opportunity to atone. He gets his chance in a match of major importance. Essendon can be lethal when on song, but their lack of four-quarter efforts is a serious shortcoming.

As for Collingwood, there appears a disconnect. In Scott Pendlebury, Taylor Adams, Adam Treloar, Steele Sidebottom, Jack Crisp and Jordan De Goey, the Magpies possess a very competent midfield. However, they often run up big numbers without really hurting their opponents and some of their execution by foot leaves a lot to be desired. A dysfunctional forward line doesn’t help either.

VERDICT: Essendon by 11 points

Sydney v Gold Coast, SCG 2.35pm

Gold Coast kept their faint finals hopes alive last weekend with a comfortable win over North Melbourne. By the time the final siren sounds in this match, their post-season aspirations will be extinguished. Even in the craziest of home-and-away campaigns, it is impossible to see the Suns upstaging Sydney, the form side of the competition, on their home deck.

The Swans have surged into the premiership discussion after starting 0-6, with their midfield of Josh Kennedy, Luke Parker, Dan Hannebery, Jake Lloyd and Isaac Heeney in excellent form and feeding an attack headlined by the redoubtable Lance Franklin. Defensively, they are clearly a better side with Dane Rampe back in the fold after breaking an arm on a training run earlier in the season. If the weather is kind, the final margin won’t be.

VERDICT: Sydney by 60 points

Brisbane v Geelong, Gabba 5.25pm

For those doubting whether Brisbane were on the right track, it might pay to sit down and watch a replay of the final quarter of last Sunday’s thrilling win over Essendon in Melbourne. It was stirring stuff and the sheer joy post-match of the players, who have been through the ringer in recent seasons, testament to the fact they are enjoying football again under first-year coach Chris Fagan?

Does that mean we should expect them to finish with a surge and win more than they lose? Absolutely not. Indeed, they are going to have their work cut out to stay within striking distance of Geelong in this match. But on what we saw the Cats produce against Greater Western Sydney, that is not a disgrace. Patrick Dangerfield was ridiculously good opposed to GWS and he will benefit from the return of captain and fellow ace midfielder Joel Selwood, who missed last week through concussion.

VERDICT: Geelong by 34 points

St Kilda v Richmond, Etihad Stadium 5.25pm

Richmond, in particular coach Damien Hardwick, have been on a mission all season to make amends for their dreadful 2016 that nobody saw coming. After three successive finals campaigns, the Tigers were putrid last season, prompting many to forecast they would again be spectators when the September action got under way this year. Barring a massive implosion, that isn’t going to happen.

The Tigers enhanced their standing in the football community with a stirring come-from-behind interstate win over Port Adelaide last Saturday night. Dustin Martin was again outstanding and their lively small forwards proved a match-up nightmare. St Kilda have a more traditional forward set-up, but it is still effective. Tim Membrey, Josh Bruce and Nick Riewoldt draw the football through the air, while Jade Gresham and Jack Billings can be damaging at ground level.

The Saints dodged a bullet against Fremantle in Perth and will have to front up against Richmond minus Jimmy Webster, the classy rebounding defender suspended for two weeks for his scuffle with Nick Suban. The absence of Webster’s precision kicking in a game which shapes as a defensive arm-wrestle, could be highly significant.

VERDICT: Richmond by 11 points

Sunday, 9 July

North Melbourne v Fremantle, Etihad Stadium 11.10am

Fremantle went to their mid-season bye in a precarious position. To say that Ross Lyon’s men have responded admirably in the fortnight since having that week off to recharge mentally and physically is an understatement. The Dockers could easily have beaten finals-bound Geelong and St Kilda, with the deeds of Michael Walters against the Saints needing to be seen to be believed.

As the graph of the Dockers has trended north, the one associated with North Melbourne is venturing south — at an alarming rate. The Kangaroos were atrocious against Gold Coast last weekend and must now tackle the Dockers minus Jarrad Waite (calf), Jamie Macmillan (finger) and Marley Williams (back). Their absence is offset slightly by the return from suspension of inside midfielder Ben Cunnington.

The Kangaroos are getting close to the tipping point with Todd Goldstein, who looks anything but an All-Australian ruckman. If he is dropped, Braydon Preuss will earn a call-up and face up to Dockers rookie Sean Darcy, who has been ultra-impressive in his two senior games to date. North are always competitive at Etihad Stadium and for that reason — and that reason alone — maybe they can fall over the line here.

VERDICT: North Melbourne by 3 points

Carlton v Melbourne, MCG 1.20pm

Melbourne were extended fully in round two this season by Carlton, ultimately winning by 22 points after trailing by three points at three-quarter-time. But those who are settling on their tips for this match should remember that the Demons side in that match possessed Nathan Jones, Jack Viney, Jack Watts, Christian Salem, Jesse Hogan and Angus Brayshaw.

Hogan is a chance to return after his battle with testicular cancer, but the others are missing through injury, while Jeff Garlett could be recalled having missed last Friday night’s loss to Sydney with a hamstring strain. The absence of Tomas Bugg (suspended) is another blow for Melbourne, who are delving deep into their playing stocks.

The Blues are still making their way under Brendon Bolton, but every week they compete, play with passion, discipline and great structure. In the absence of Viney, who regularly sets the tone through the midfield and at stoppages, Carlton are entitled to think they get a great chance to improve their excellent record against the Demons. Much rests with Bryce Gibbs, Patrick Cripps and Marc Murphy to ignite the charge, not to mention the forwards taking their opportunities.

VERDICT: Carlton by 13 points

West Coast v Port Adelaide, Domain Stadium 2.40pm

West Coast have walked the finals tightrope for most of the season, but took a major step towards a third straight post-season campaign under Adam Simpson with their gritty win over the Western Bulldogs last weekend. The big question heading into this match is what shape will the Eagles team take given the availability of so many proven performers, notably dual Coleman medallist Josh Kennedy and skipper Shannon Hurn.

Port Adelaide coach Ken Hinkley can’t be preoccupied with the composition of the Eagles’ line-up. He has more pressing matters to attend to. Like, how does he conjure up a win over West Coast, who have beaten his side on three straight occasions in South Australia and what is the secret to toppling a team currently in the top eight. The Power have come up short against the competition’s elite all season despite often dominating general field play.

They did so again against Richmond last weekend and were also unable to convert their opportunities against the Eagles earlier in the season. Making the most of their forward 50m entries is crucial for Port, but doing so against West Coast on the narrow Domain Stadium is a mighty task. You would think Robbie Gray, Chad Wingard or Charlie Dixon are going to have to have a day out if the Power are to prevail.

VERDICT: West Coast by 20 points

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