Digby Beacham’s AFL Preview: Round 19

Posted on July 26, 2018 | Posted by Digby Beacham

FRIDAY

Essendon v Sydney, Etihad Stadium, 5.50pm

It is the question on everyone’s lips. Are Sydney gone? Three losses in their past four games would suggest the once-mighty Swans, perennial finalists with the ability to strike fear into their opposition courtesy of an uncompromising brand of football, are wobbly.

However, being back on the ropes and being face down on the mat are two entirely different things. Essendon have the opportunity to deliver another telling blow to John Longmire and his charges in a match of genuine significance. The Bombers are gathering momentum as they look to snatch an unlikely finals berth and will be boosted here by the return of Jake Stringer (calf) and Conor McKenna (groin) from injury.

Sydney started briskly against Gold Coast last Saturday, only to be unrecognisable for the remaining three terms as the Suns caused the biggest upset in recent memory. It would be foolish to think there won’t be a response from the Swans. They are too proud and too professional not to make their presence felt. Importantly, they do play some of their best football away from the SCG at Etihad Stadium.

VERDICT: Sydney by 11 points

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SATURDAY

Richmond v Collingwood, MCG, 11.45am

There is something very special about a good old-fashioned Saturday afternoon blockbuster at the MCG. And this is a blockbuster with a capital B. The Tigers have proven a lock for tipsters at the home of football since last year and enter this match knowing their best is superior to any side in the competition.

That said, Collingwood tuned up for their second assignment against the premiers in 2018 with a ruthless dismissal of North Melbourne last Saturday. Despite missing a swag of key personnel, the Magpies were efficient out of the centre and extremely potent in attack. That level of goal-kicking efficiency is key against Richmond, who defend superbly, but are also the second-highest scoring team in the competition.

Respective ruckmen Toby Nankervis (Richmond) and Brodie Grundy (Collingwood) had an absorbing duel when the sides met in round six, with the Tigers big man taking the points. Grundy is in All-Australian contention and would dearly love to turn the tables. He needs to if the Magpies are to have any chance.

VERDICT: Richmond by 20 points

Geelong v Brisbane, GMHBA Stadium, 12.10pm

Having dodged a bullet for the second time this season against Melbourne last Saturday night, Geelong can ill afford to slip up against Brisbane. It would be a surprise if they did. Despite their victory last round, the Cats actually went south on the ladder because of wins recorded by Greater Western Sydney and Hawthorn. They are well aware that every game is crucial.

The Lions only just failed in their bid for a fourth straight victory against Adelaide last weekend, their even spread of contributors again a highlight. The Lions’ youngsters, particularly Alex Witherden and Cameron Rayner, look more comfortable each week, while Josh Walker has impressed in his defensive role. That could be important if he is asked to negate the rampaging Tom Hawkins, fresh off a seven-goal haul.

VERDICT: Geelong by 32 points

GWS v St Kilda, Spotless Stadium, 2.35pm

The transformation of Greater Western Sydney is complete. Banged up, but also seemingly content to go through the motions earlier in the season, it could be argued the Giants are the closest thing to Richmond at the present stage.

Blessed with enormous top-end talent, the Giants now do all the little things right, and defend and harrass like an elite side. It is those traits which weren’t on display in round five when they fought out a draw with St Kilda at Etihad Stadium. And that spells trouble for the Saints here, especially given how proficient GWS are at stoppages.

The availability of two players in particular — Josh Kelly and Toby Greene — make this Giants outfit an automatic challenger. The past three weeks against West Coast, Richmond and Port Adelaide have been an indication GWS are back on track. Don’t expect them to take a detour any time soon.

VERDICT: GWS by 43 points

Gold Coast v Carlton, Metricon Stadium, 5.25pm

If there was any doubt over who would finish last in 2018, it was confirmed last weekend when Gold Coast stunned Sydney at the SCG and Carlton fell to yet another defeat the following day at the hands of Hawthorn. The results ensured the Blues would collect the wooden spoon yet again, therefore removing any real interest in this match for the neutral observer.

Carlton’s woes show no signs of abating and they head north without Zac Fisher (fractured leg) and Liam Jones (knee). Young sides often fatigue at this stage of the season and those with personnel issues like the Blues become extremely vulnerable. Gold Coast are hardly a Rolls Royce, but they will have garnered a great deal of self-belief with their win over the Swans and are entitled to think this match is well within their reach.

VERDICT: Gold Coast by 34 points

Adelaide v Melbourne, Adelaide Oval, 5.40pm

Time will tell whether Adelaide have left their finals run too late, but there is no doubt they are in a far better position now than a month ago. Victory against a Melbourne side still coming to terms with another heartbreaking defeat to Geelong would give their September hopes a shot in the arm.

The return of captain Taylor Walker from suspension is important. For the first time in several weeks, the Crows’ attack will feature Walker, Josh Jenkins, Mitch McGovern and Tom Lynch, a quartet that work very well together and underpinned their charge towards last year’s grand final.

The Demons did a lot of things right against the Cats, but paid the price for a lack of composure late. Max Gawn’s battle with quality Crows ruckman Sam Jacobs will be important, as will the pressure applied midfield by Melbourne in order to halt the Crows’ forward line from receiving quality service further afield.

VERDICT: Adelaide by 18 points

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SUNDAY

North Melbourne v West Coast, Blundstone Arena, 11.10am

The fixture gods have looked after North Melbourne. If there was a venue the Kangaroos could designate to play at after a week in which their lack of intent was exposed, it would be Blundstone Arena, their home away from home. The Kangaroos relish playing at the Hobart venue, as evidenced by 12 wins in their past 14 outings.

However, there is a small matter of West Coast, their opponents. The Eagles have shown in the past fortnight with the return of Jack Darling, Josh Kennedy and Mark LeCras that they are very much a top-two contender.

They demolished the Western Bulldogs last Sunday, just seven days after ending Collingwood’s seven-match winning streak. The Magpies responded with an obliteration of the Kangaroos. Potent in attack, efficient midfield and stout defensively, the Eagles only need to handle the conditions to stay on track for home-ground advantage in the finals.

VERDICT: West Coast by 21 points

Western Bulldogs v Port Adelaide, MARS Stadium, Ballarat, 1.20pm

If Port Adelaide want to secure a finals berth everyone thought was a shoo-in at the start of the season, this contest is non-negotiable. Losses to Fremantle and Greater Western Sydney in the past fortnight have loosened the Power’s grip on a September berth and raised the stakes here.

The Bulldogs started brightly against West Coast, but were then split apart. They simply didn’t have the talent or game plan to stand toe-to-toe with the Eagles and Luke Beveridge was then forced to go into damage control to avoid a complete blow-out. Power coach Ken Hinkley has more talent at his disposal than Beveridge, but extracting it on a regular basis remains a challenge.

The likely return of Steven Motlop (illness) provides Port’s misfiring attack with an injection of class and if he is able to capitalise on his opportunities alongside Robbie Gray and Chad Wingard, the Bulldogs’ own issues forward of centre could be exposed.

VERDICT: Port Adelaide by 23 points

Fremantle v Hawthorn, Optus Stadium, 2.40pm

Hawthorn need no reminding about the dangers that await them. Only a fortnight ago, Port Adelaide had their finals hopes rocked when they underestimated Fremantle at Optus Stadium and flew out of WA without the points and fresh injury concerns.

The Hawks hit town minus the suspended Daniel Howe, but are likely to welcome back star pair Shaun Burgoyne (hamstring) and Jaeger O’Meara (hip), making the Dockers’ task more daunting. Hawthorn feasted on Carlton last Sunday as Tom Mitchell was allowed to roam around Etihad Stadium unchecked. Dockers coach Ross Lyon will no doubt assign someone to him, perhaps Bailey Banfield, but whether the hosts have the overall class to nullify the Hawks’ big guns is debatable.

VERDICT: Hawthorn by 17 points

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