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Digby Beacham’s AFL Preview: Round 16

Posted on | Posted by Digby Beacham

THURSDAY

Brisbane v Richmond, Gabba, 5.20pm

Richmond would desperately love to avenge their narrow 2022 elimination final loss to Brisbane when these two sides meet for the first time since. And the Tigers need to avenge that narrow loss if they are to remain in the top-eight conversation.

Doing so is easier said than done. Brisbane remain a formidable force on home soil and look to have become a more trustworthy line-up without both Daniel Rich and Jack Gunston thanks to the integration of some exciting young talent.

But if the Lions are to go deep this year, their proven performers on all lines are going to have a large say. We saw what Harris Andrews was able to do against St Kilda. He looms as a stumbling block here also for the resurgent Tigers.

VERDICT: Brisbane by 1-39 points

FRIDAY

Sydney v Geelong, SCG, 5.50pm

If you were looking in-depth at this match last week it would have been difficult to select the winner with confidence. After Sydney mauled West Coast and Geelong produced a brilliant final 30 minutes without a concussed Jeremy Cameron to overcome Melbourne, the picture remains murky.

Importantly for the Cats, they regain skipper Patrick Dangerfield and Esava Ratugolea from injury as they pursue a third straight win over Sydney following the grand final demolition and annihilation down in Geelong earlier in the season.

As for Sydney, they are entitled to feel good about themselves. They showed a ruthless streak opposed to the Eagles and moved the ball with a level of fluency that could test the Cats defence.

VERDICT: Geelong to win

SATURDAY

Adelaide v North Melbourne, Adelaide Oval, 11.45am

Provided they have overcome the disappointment of coming up short against Collingwood for the second time this season, this presents as a golden opportunity for Adelaide to strengthen their top-eight credentials.

North Melbourne are competitive under interim coach Brett Ratten, yet the simple fact is they are riding a 12-game losing streak. The availability of Luke Davies-Uniacke will help the Kangaroos, but the Crows in SA are proving extremely difficult to counter.

Jordan Dawson and Rory Laird are each averaging 28 possessions per match and supply a forward line that is multi-pronged and potent.

VERDICT: Adelaide by 25 points or more

Western Bulldogs v Fremantle, Marvel Stadium, 11.45am

Fremantle supporters were understandably annoyed after their side was eclipsed by the Western Bulldogs in round six. It left the Dockers 2-4 and on the brink.

However, the manner in which Fremantle succumbed was arguably the turning point to their fortunes, forcing Justin Longmuir to alter a game plan that looked outdated. Now the Dockers venture east for a return bout believing they’re capable of another interstate upset.

Liam Jones will be missing from a Bulldogs backline that can be a little shaky, but as is so often the case, this match is going to be shaped by the battle in the midfield where both sides are stacked with class. The tussle between Tim English and Sean Darcy shapes as a cracker.

VERDICT: Fremantle to win

Gold Coast v Collingwood, Heritage Bank Stadium, 2.35pm

Gold Coast, the floor is yours. If you are making the progress everyone at the club insists you are, then this clash with Collingwood is the perfect opportunity to make a statement.

The Magpies had to dig deep to get over Adelaide and arrive on the Glitter Strip six days later for an assignment against a Suns line-up fresh off a mauling of Hawthorn, albeit one minus its skipper James Sicily.

The Suns lost the corresponding match last season by only five points and though Touk Miller will miss again through injury, they are settled and boast strike weapons in Ben King and Jack Lukosius.

VERDICT: Collingwood to win 

Essendon v Port Adelaide, MCG, 5.25pm

If there is one side to buck the alarming trend of post-bye losses, it has to be Port Adelaide. Does that mean they will in this clash with Essendon? There are no guarantees, but their body of work is elite and worthy of being backed in.

The Power hit their break following a clinical dismissal of Geelong and will feel they have the necessary weapons and game plan to trouble Essendon. The Bombers have made great strides under Brad Scott, but are coming off a loss in Perth and will be unable to call on Sam Draper (hip) once more.

With Draper missing, the Bombers’ midfield could be dictated to by Port’s following division and that spells trouble for their defence.

VERDICT: Port Adelaide to win 

SUNDAY

Hawthorn v Carlton, MCG, 11.10am

If we are looking for recency when settling on the winner here, it seems quite simple. A fortnight ago, Carlton demolished Gold Coast, who then blitzed Hawthorn last weekend.

We know though it’s far more complicated than that. However, we are also learning that a Hawks side without captain James Sicily, who will again be sidelined through suspension, is extremely vulnerable. A case in point was the expedition to the Gold Coast weekend.

The Blues are rested (let’s hope that the bye doesn’t prove an issue) and with twin towers Charlie Curnow and Harry McKay lurking forward of centre, all they need is supply. The Blues should be winning a third consecutive match against Hawthorn.

VERDICT: Carlton by 16 points or more

Melbourne v GWS, Traeger Park, 1.20pm

Melbourne need to awake from their offensive slumber if they are to challenge for the premiership. They have the defensive profile, necessary big bodies and experience to match it with the big boys in the competition.

But unless Simon Goodwin and his coaching staff can solve the long-standing attacking riddle, this is a season that will prove underwhelming. This match-up against GWS represents a chance to start the climb. The Giants are honest and in decent nick, but can be scored against.

In saying that, they conceded only five goals from 11 scoring shots against Fremantle a fortnight ago. Kieren Briggs continues to shine in the ruck for GWS, while the return from injury against the Dockers of Josh Kelly wasn’t lost on anyone.

VERDICT: Melbourne 1-39 points

West Coast v St Kilda, Optus Stadium, 2.40pm

Where do you start? West Coast have promised a response in the wake of the 171-point flogging at the hands of Sydney last weekend.

But they said the same after the previous match against Adelaide when thrashed by more than 20 goals. In simple terms, they can’t be trusted because their effort is conditional … as it has been for far too long.

St Kilda aren’t exactly an offensive juggernaut. Ross Lyon-coached sides rarely are, yet this is a chance for the Saints to not only pocket four important points, but boost their percentage.

VERDICT: St Kilda to win by 40 points or more

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