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Robbie Von’s F1 Preview – Monaco Grand Prix

Posted on | Posted by Robbie Von

ANTONELLI HAS THE POINTS, RUSSELL HAS A SCORE TO SETTLE

From Montreal to the streets of Monte Carlo, F1 is in Europe now and the season is heating up nicely. Before we get into Monaco, we need to talk about what happened in Canada. Because it was one of those race weekends that had EVERYTHING!

WRAPPING UP CANADA

George Russell was the story of the weekend. Sprint pole, Sprint win, Grand Prix pole. He was absolutely flying. For 29 laps of the main race, he and Kimi Antonelli were trading paint in one of the most exciting teammate battles we have seen in years. It was absolute cinema.

Then a catastrophic battery failure killed Russell’s car on the spot. He climbed out furious, threw his headrest onto the track and watched Antonelli cruise to a fourth straight win. Mercedes confirmed it was heat damage to the battery. The frustration was understandable. Russell got a suspended fine for the headrest. Can’t really blame him.

Forty-three points is now the gap. Antonelli on 131, Russell on 88. Russell himself said the championship is Antonelli’s to lose. Hard to argue right now.

And then there was Oscar Piastri. After a horror start to the season that included a pre-race crash in Melbourne and a DNS in Shanghai, McLaren decided the best move in Canada was to gamble on intermediate tyres on a track that was barely damp. It backfired spectacularly. Piastri called it over the radio on the spot. He then collected Alex Albon at the hairpin, took a 10 second penalty and finished 11th. Lando Norris retired with a gearbox failure. Zero points. Both cars. Again. Piastri’s own words after the race were blunt. He called it out publicly. You love the honesty, but the results have to start coming.

THE MONACO GRAND PRIX

There is no track like it. Narrow streets, zero room for error, barriers everywhere you look. Overtaking is almost impossible here which means Saturday qualifying is essentially the race. Whoever nails the front row in Monaco generally goes home with the trophy. Charles Leclerc grew up here. He knows every millimetre of this circuit. The market knows it too, which is why he sits as favourite.

THE TEAMS

Ferrari

TABtouch has Charles Leclerc as the race favourite at $3.00 to win, with a Top 3 at $1.50. And honestly, it makes sense. This is his backyard. He holds the record for most pole positions here in the modern F1 era. Monaco is the one circuit that neutralises the power unit advantage Mercedes have enjoyed all season. Lewis Hamilton flagged it himself this week, saying Monaco is the one track where power is not king. Ferrari’s chassis has been strong all year. The power unit has held them back. Take that variable out and suddenly the Scuderia look genuinely dangerous.

Hamilton is right alongside him in the market at $5.25 to win and $1.67 Top 3. Both are worth serious consideration.

Mercedes

Here is where I am going against the grain. George Russell at $5.50 to win Monaco is my headline call this weekend. He is due a big result and the car is clearly fast. The Canada upgrade package worked. Only a freak mechanical failure stopped him from winning. Monaco rewards precision and qualifying pace above everything else. Russell is one of the best qualifiers on the grid. He is not going to let this one slip.

Kimi Antonelli is equal with Russell at $5.50 to win and $1.73 Top 3. Five straight wins would be the stuff of legend. Can he do it? Absolutely. But Monaco is a different kind of challenge, and I think Russell has a point to prove here.

McLaren

Piastri is sitting at $10.00 to win and $3.00 Top 3. After Montreal that price feels about right. But Monaco is the circuit that can reset a season. Clean air, smart strategy, no chaos off the start line. If McLaren can just execute a normal weekend, Piastri has every bit of talent to deliver something here. He is sitting on 48 championship points and desperately needs a result. The $3.00 Top 3 is a value play worth considering if you believe in the bounce back.

Red Bull

Max Verstappen is at $10.00 to win and $3.00 Top 3. He has climbed to 43 championship points after finally getting on the podium, but Monaco has not been a happy hunting ground for Red Bull in recent years. The circuit takes power out of the equation which should help, but I am not rushing to back him here.

The Fun One

TABtouch has a First Driver to Retire market, and it is worth a look. Fernando Alonso and Lance Stroll are both sitting at $9.00, and both are driving an Aston Martin that has scored zero championship points all season. Alonso is still an absolute gun, do not get me wrong… but even he can’t compete on the narrowest street circuit on the calendar… in a car that slow. As for Stroll, the kid is trying his best. It just so happens his best and his dad’s chequebook have not quite translated into points this season. Either of them retiring first at $9.00 is a fun little side bet to keep you honest on Sunday night.

PLAYS FOR THIS WEEKEND

George Russell to Win – $5.50

Charles Leclerc to Win – $3.00

Lewis Hamilton Top 3 – $1.67

Ferrari Fastest Lap – $1.95

First Driver to Retire – Alonso or Stroll – $9.00 (fun one)

Monaco is always unpredictable. One Safety Car, one wrong tyre call, one moment of madness at the Swimming Pool section and the whole race flips. That is exactly why we love it.

Happy punting!

Odds correct at time of publication. 

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