Races

Chris Nelson’s Saturday Sunshine Coast Preview

Posted on | Posted by Chris Nelson

RACE 1

Main meeting in southeast Queensland on Saturday is on the Sunshine Coast which sees our summer carnival kick off with the Mooloolaba Cup featuring later in the day. Weather should be fine as should the surface after a clear week weather wise. Very little race form to go on in this opening race for the youngsters with only 2 of the 12 acceptors having faced the starter, needless to say the market moves will be our best guide. Thought (7) SCARTOON did enough on debut to suggest she can go one better today, she showed very good speed to cross & lead, kicking strongly in the straight she was only run down late. From the trials (2) BOOTS stands out winning here recently by a space, no shortage of support for him right from when early markets were posted.

Numbers: 7 – 2 – 12 – 6

Suggested Bet: SCARTOON EACH-WAY (small bet).

RACE 2

Will this be another match between the consistent & very much in form pair (1) MR BUSTER & (2) CAVALRY MAN? I’m suggesting it will be & have the latter on top. He meets MR BUSTER 3kg better off for a 1.1L defeat at Doomben recently & that was off a torrid run when covering plenty of additional ground. He’s since bolted in at Eagle Farm & based on those past two runs the additional trip won’t pose any issues. (6) KALUAKOI needs it dry & should get that here, he’ll also go forward in a race not high on early speed.

Numbers: 2 – 1 – 6 – 11

Suggested Bet: CAVALRY MAN TO WIN (small bet).

RACE 3

(13) MARGOT’S DEEL accounted for (16) THINKHARDANDFAST at Eagle Farm last start however the margin was only narrow & the latter didn’t have the clearest of runs down the straight. With a 3.5kg turnaround for the 0.6L defeat THINKHARDANDFAST can reverse the result. (20) CONTILDA’S LOVE continues to race well & shapes as though the 1800m will suit, no surprise to see him storm home late & if there’s one to upset the top two fancies it could well be him. (6) RHUVAAL is well in the market, clearly should have finished closer last start when running into traffic late in the straight.

Numbers: 16 – 13 – 20 – 6

Suggested Bet: THINKHARDANDFAST TO WIN.

RACE 4

(15) TRAPEDO is unbeaten here on her home track & sets up well rising to 1600m which is clearly her pet distance as both career wins have come at the trip & equally as importantly both here. She absolutely motored home late second up at 1400m to just miss & continued that momentum right through the line. The lightly raced (20) WAKU WAKU looms as a solid threat should she gain a run, strong winning last start there’s plenty of upside with her. (12) ARALETTA next best however there’s a ton of other chances.

Numbers: 15 – 20 – 12 – 5

Suggested Bet: TRAPEDO EACH-WAY.

RACE 5

Found this one of the toughest races of the day & I could well change my mind many times before start time. (3) HA’PENNY HATCH comes into the race off a months break & does rise 200m, I’m generally against such a set up however she does look well placed at 1400m & if not a market drifter I’ll stick. (2) BRAVE MONARCH is only lightly raced & showing plenty of promise, maps well for the flying Munce/Harley combination. (12) KRUMAC will need some tempo up front, should that be the case is a chance of running into the placings.

Numbers: 3 – 2 – 12 – 5

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 6

Interesting race tactically with the locally trained Winston Smurfhill the only leader on paper. Happy to stick with (1) WARBY who has placed his past couple Doomben & Eagle Farm, should things have panned out more favourably he could easily have won both. He drew an inside gate last start however didn’t jump well & ended up a lot further back than planned before running home hard to beat all bar the winner. Can he make better use of today’s good draw? Hopefully yes. (8) NAVAL TRADER ran home well fresh & will appreciate 1400m whilst (2) POCKET FULL races on speed & draws ideally.

Numbers: 1 – 8 – 2 – 13

Suggested Bet: WARBY TO WIN.

RACE 7

Today’s feature race is the Mooloolaba Cup over 1600m, don’t see a lot of speed on the map. (13) KEITEL has raced very well this prep winning twice & placing twice, the two defeats have been full of merit running home hard in races not run to suit. He settled closer at Doomben last start which was a big plus & when the chips were down in the straight pinned his ears back & really found the line hard. Yes, this is harder however with a big weight drop & a good draw he should again be close enough to strike. (6) WALSH BAY just went from strength to strength before the break, 7 weeks between runs won’t stop her giving 6 straight wins a nudge. (2) MISS JOELENE fitter for the first up run is the class runner in the race, don’t overlook her.

Numbers: 13 – 6 – 2 – 14

Suggested Bet: KEITEL EACH-WAY.

RACE 8

Difficult race with many of the well fancied runners resuming. I’ve gone with (1) HIDDEN WEALTH who is the class runner in the race, placed at Group 2 & 3 level his last couple of outings before spelling he draws ideally today likely stalking the speed although he may push on & look for the lead. (4) VODKA MARTINI doesn’t draw well at all however does have a good fresh record & if able to land cover in the run isn’t without a chance. (5) NETTUNO maps around midfield on the fence, if the gaps come look for him to be closing in rapidly late on a track he races very well at. Chances certainly don’t end there.

Numbers: 1 – 4 – 5 – 7

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 9

Really good race for the 3yo’s, Tony Gollan has 5 of the 16 acceptors & all look to have a winning chance. I’ve liked what (5) FORGOTTEN SPIRIT has done at her two starts since joining the stable. Caught wide first up she didn’t shirk her task at any stage, last start she sped straight to the front & gave a good kick to win impressively. Interestingly on each occasion she’s hung & pulled up with heat stress, some gear changes today may help with the waywardness. (15) SHADWELL LANE is only lightly raced coming off a last start maiden victory, recent trial win couldn’t have been any more impressive. Can make cases for 1, 2 & 3 also.

Numbers: 5 – 15 – 1 – 2

Suggested Bet: FORGOTTEN SPIRIT to win.

RACE 10

Confident we can end the day on a winning note with the smart (12) COSMO CENTAURUS the top tip. Strong first up win at Doomben over 1110m he then dropped back to the 1000m at Eagle Farm when closing well however the trip & lack of tempo gave him no chance of winning. Up to 1200m today & with plenty of speed likely he’ll get his chance to run over the top of them late. (4) BEWS was terrific fist up, seems like an eternity ago however he finally returns & will be nice & fresh for it.

Numbers: 12 – 4 – 14 – 9

Suggested Bet: COSMO CENTAURUS TO WIN.

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